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干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":296.7822,"lo":205.8431,"hi":390.9843,"opProfit":334.3886,"opLo":244.5462,"opHi":428.2392,"perKm":2251.76,"opPerKm":2537.09,"pProb":1.0,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":531.6143,"emuCost":87.4913,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":true,"hist":{"2017":119.94309559939302,"2018":124.97003034901365,"2019":125.82018209408194,"2020":80.92261001517451,"2021":139.22799696509864,"2022":107.96016691957512,"2023":139.40743550834597,"2024":143.03566009104705,"2025":145.9191957511381,"2026":152.35546282245826},"cost":{"train":157.6857,"infra":39.54,"dep":36.7564,"int":0.85},"sup":{"qJul":152.35546282245826,"qJan":149.86342943854325,"qYear":148.056,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 152.4 对、2026-01-31周六 149.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 148.1 对/日。","longRate":0.9099959886357127,"carsAvg":15.553,"seatsAvg":1123.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率91%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.09000401136428726},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.9099959886357127}],"trainKm":142450703,"carKm":2215531035,"seatKm":160078619894},"dem":{"load":0.6984,"loadLo":0.6631,"loadHi":0.7355,"prior":0.6492,"pkm":111790928040,"kind":"der","text":"京沪全线（本线+跨线）客座率2018年78.34%、2019年75.50%，2023年一季度64.9%（淡季、疫后恢复）；2025年担当客公里306.33亿，较2024年增0.9%，全线开行+1.4%。2025年担当客公里较2018年低11%，独立审核估现期约70%；取71%。 换算本线口径约71%；与拟合曲线65%按精度合并（本线证据权重80%）。","evidence":[{"text":"中诚信2021京沪债券评级报告 表6","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/2021-12-21/4374910789564359379472057.pdf"},{"text":"京沪招股书 本线客座率2016–2019","url":"https://pdf.dfcfw.com/pdf/H2_AN202001031373402528_1.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.933,"real":0.4755,"kind":"obs","text":"京沪担当列车2025年客运收入157.22亿元÷担当客公里306.33亿=0.513元/人公里（含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税），担当客公里按此计；跨线列车在京沪段的客公里按公布价0.55元/公里×全国实收系数×本线需求浮动计（跨线长途旅客一等/商务座比例较低）。"},"capText":"投资 1.68 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约15年，利息按公司实际财务费用。","calc":"列车公里 = 148.06 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 1318 公里 = 14,245 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.55 节/列 = 221,553 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1124 座/列 = 1,600.79 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 69.8% = 1,117.91 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.933 = 531.61 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.7 元 = 157.69 亿元\n线路维护 = 1318 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 39.54 亿元\n折旧 = 1318 公里 × 1.68 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 36.76 亿元\n利息 = 公司实际财务费用 = 0.85 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 531.61 − 157.69 − 39.54 − 36.76 − 0.85 = +296.78 亿元","notes":["京沪公司有息负债很少，2025年财务费用0.85亿元，按实际计息。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"京沪2025可持续发展报告","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-30/1225255213.PDF","note":"全年2.38亿旅客、日均超过500列，仍不是逐区段客公里与座公里。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"京沪高铁母公司","year":"2025","netProfit":131.1077147043,"revenue":369.585485126,"note":"原线近似，不是单线独立审计分部。","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF"}},{"id":"R002","name":"京石客专","km":281,"speed":350,"opened":"2012","region":"华北","via":"北京,涿州,保定,定州,石家庄","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":42.0214,"lo":19.3448,"hi":63.2518,"opProfit":53.4412,"opLo":31.1486,"opHi":74.9554,"perKm":1495.42,"opPerKm":1901.82,"pProb":0.993,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":94.1454,"emuCost":17.8916,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":111.93795620437956,"2018":113.97445255474453,"2019":121.27007299270073,"2020":70.99270072992701,"2021":123.02919708029196,"2022":97.02919708029196,"2023":137.12956204379563,"2024":144.2390510948905,"2025":150.7390510948905,"2026":151.47992700729927},"cost":{"train":32.2741,"infra":8.43,"dep":7.4634,"int":3.9565},"sup":{"qJul":151.47992700729927,"qJan":142.72080291970804,"qYear":144.049,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 151.5 对、2026-01-31周六 142.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 144.0 对/日。","longRate":0.8834812856127502,"carsAvg":15.333,"seatsAvg":1107.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率88%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.11651871438724981},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.8834812856127502}],"trainKm":29548744,"carKm":453067786,"seatKm":32715654844},"dem":{"load":0.6473,"loadLo":0.5652,"loadHi":0.7413,"prior":0.6473,"pkm":21177067997,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计65%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8082961751714748,"real":0.4446,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.808（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.60 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 27% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 144.05 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 281 公里 = 2,955 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.33 节/列 = 45,307 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1107 座/列 = 327.16 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 64.7% = 211.77 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.808 = 94.15 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.5 元 = 32.27 亿元\n线路维护 = 281 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.43 亿元\n折旧 = 281 公里 × 1.60 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.46 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 27%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 3.96 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 94.15 − 32.27 − 8.43 − 7.46 − 3.96 = +42.02 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R003","name":"石武客专","km":840,"speed":350,"opened":"2012","region":"华北-华中","via":"石家庄,邢台,邯郸,安阳,新乡,郑州,许昌,漯河,驻马店,信阳,孝感,武汉","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":84.155,"lo":31.1132,"hi":132.985,"opProfit":113.812,"opLo":62.4383,"opHi":163.2922,"perKm":1001.85,"opPerKm":1354.91,"pProb":0.972,"pProbOp":0.998,"rev":215.5753,"emuCost":42.2927,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":89.3871473354232,"2018":94.0208986415883,"2019":102.9858934169279,"2020":63.34430512016719,"2021":102.32079414838036,"2022":89.96969696969697,"2023":109.89707419017763,"2024":118.74294670846395,"2025":127.32079414838036,"2026":123.2115987460815},"cost":{"train":76.5633,"infra":25.2,"dep":19.3822,"int":10.2749},"sup":{"qJul":123.2115987460815,"qJan":122.81661442006269,"qYear":120.549,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 123.2 对、2026-01-31周六 122.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 120.5 对/日。","longRate":0.7817060429891404,"carsAvg":14.488,"seatsAvg":1043.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率78%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.21829395701085963},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7817060429891404}],"trainKm":73920578,"carKm":1070973167,"seatKm":77141021949},"dem":{"load":0.6346,"loadLo":0.5514,"loadHi":0.7303,"prior":0.6346,"pkm":48953370250,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计63%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8006703787732136,"real":0.4404,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.801（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.39 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 27% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 120.55 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 840 公里 = 7,392 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.49 节/列 = 107,097 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1044 座/列 = 771.41 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 63.5% = 489.53 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.801 = 215.58 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.8 元 = 76.56 亿元\n线路维护 = 840 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 25.20 亿元\n折旧 = 840 公里 × 1.39 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 19.38 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 27%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 10.27 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 215.58 − 76.56 − 25.20 − 19.38 − 10.27 = +84.15 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R004","name":"武广高铁","km":968,"speed":350,"opened":"2009","region":"华中-华南","via":"武汉,咸宁,岳阳,长沙,衡阳,郴州,韶关,清城,广州南","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":156.8717,"lo":80.0778,"hi":232.4586,"opProfit":184.4597,"opLo":108.4621,"opHi":258.9619,"perKm":1620.58,"opPerKm":1905.58,"pProb":0.998,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":324.5071,"emuCost":61.3294,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":113.46632366697848,"2018":117.85079513564078,"2019":120.41440598690365,"2020":91.39569691300281,"2021":123.88587464920487,"2022":124.44995322731525,"2023":133.8489242282507,"2024":146.89943872778298,"2025":152.855472404116,"2026":155.47708138447146},"cost":{"train":111.0074,"infra":29.04,"dep":19.2826,"int":8.3054},"sup":{"qJul":155.47708138447146,"qJan":153.36716557530403,"qYear":151.307,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 155.5 对、2026-01-31周六 153.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 151.3 对/日。","longRate":0.7861739568605036,"carsAvg":14.525,"seatsAvg":1046.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率79%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.21382604313949638},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7861739568605036}],"trainKm":106919795,"carKm":1553036101,"seatKm":111876460648},"dem":{"load":0.6508,"loadLo":0.569,"loadHi":0.7443,"prior":0.6508,"pkm":72806960680,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计65%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8103798162740149,"real":0.4457,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.810（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.20 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 22% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 151.31 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 968 公里 = 10,692 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.53 节/列 = 155,304 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1046 座/列 = 1,118.76 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 65.1% = 728.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.810 = 324.51 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.9 元 = 111.01 亿元\n线路维护 = 968 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 29.04 亿元\n折旧 = 968 公里 × 1.20 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 19.28 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 22%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 8.31 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 324.51 − 111.01 − 29.04 − 19.28 − 8.31 = +156.87 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"武广2024年客流超过2亿人次","url":"https://www.wuhan.gov.cn/sy/whyw/202509/t20250925_2652170.shtml","note":"平均在本线运距仍是模型假设。"},{"title":"武广：12306票价公告 2024-05-02","url":"https://www.12306.cn/mormhweb/zxdt/202405/t20240502_41895.html","note":"登记工程968公里；该OD运营/计价边界未闭合，不能以553/968声称实际收益率。政府规划材料称运营1069公里，非12306计价表证明。 公布价与最低价均非年度成交均价。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R005","name":"广深港高铁内地段","km":116,"speed":350,"opened":"2011–2015","region":"华南","via":"广州南,虎门,深圳北,深圳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":32.6141,"lo":20.5927,"hi":44.5429,"opProfit":39.9071,"opLo":28.167,"opHi":52.1369,"perKm":2811.56,"opPerKm":3440.27,"pProb":1.0,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":58.518,"emuCost":8.3481,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":108.20869565217392,"2018":114.41739130434783,"2019":132.2521739130435,"2020":112.2,"2021":124.61739130434782,"2022":112.2,"2023":148.2086956521739,"2024":151.0086956521739,"2025":164.43478260869566,"2026":178.68260869565216},"cost":{"train":15.1309,"infra":3.48,"dep":4.8718,"int":2.4212},"sup":{"qJul":178.68260869565216,"qJan":179.51304347826087,"qYear":175.526,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 178.7 对、2026-01-31周六 179.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 175.5 对/日。","longRate":0.7496966201912548,"carsAvg":14.222,"seatsAvg":1023.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率75%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.2503033798087452},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7496966201912548}],"trainKm":14863563,"carKm":211396754,"seatKm":15213754152},"dem":{"load":0.6565,"loadLo":0.5938,"loadHi":0.7257,"prior":0.6612,"pkm":9987239047,"kind":"der","text":"广深港公司担当列车客座率2018年80.0%、2019年72.1%、2023年一季度60.6%；只含担当车，不含跨线车，取65%并放宽不确定度。 换算本线口径约65%；与拟合曲线66%按精度合并（本线证据权重42%）。","evidence":[{"text":"中诚信2021跟踪评级 表7","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/2021-12-21/4374910789564359379472057.pdf"},{"text":"2023跟踪评级","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2023-06-27/1217166823.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.72,"ratio":0.8137881679504242,"real":0.5859,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.72 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.814（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.53 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约15年，按有息负债 25% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 175.53 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 116 公里 = 1,486 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.22 节/列 = 21,140 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1024 座/列 = 152.14 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 65.6% = 99.87 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.720 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.814 = 58.52 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.6 元 = 15.13 亿元\n线路维护 = 116 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.48 亿元\n折旧 = 116 公里 × 2.53 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.87 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 25%（开通15年）× 3.3% = 2.42 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 58.52 − 15.13 − 3.48 − 4.87 − 2.42 = +32.61 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"国家铁路局：广深港跨境客流","url":"https://www.nra.gov.cn/xwzx/xwxx/xwlb/202603/t20260313_350894.shtml","note":"报道2025跨境客流3579.4万人；与港铁年报3109.5万人有差异，单列冲突。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R006","name":"广深港高铁香港段","km":26,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"香港","via":"深圳河,西九龙","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-12.3533,"lo":-19.38,"hi":-7.2772,"opProfit":11.9586,"opLo":9.5046,"opHi":14.5495,"perKm":-4751.27,"opPerKm":4599.48,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":13.6051,"emuCost":0.6618,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":95.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":91.0,"2024":104.0,"2025":109.0,"2026":109.5},"cost":{"train":1.1265,"infra":0.52,"dep":12.1927,"int":12.1193},"sup":{"qJul":109.5,"qJan":109.0,"qYear":107.059,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 109.5 对、2026-01-31周六 109.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 107.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.48,"seatsAvg":669.1,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：227列中16节19%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":560,"share":0.815,"label":"8节"},{"cars":16,"seats":1150,"share":0.185,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":2031975,"carKm":19263124,"seatKm":1359696121},"dem":{"load":0.5759,"loadLo":0.5167,"loadHi":0.6418,"prior":0.5298,"pkm":783008106,"kind":"der","text":"广深港高铁香港段2025年客量超过3,000万人次（新华社）；跨境旅客均走完香港段26公里，得约8亿人公里。 换算本线口径约59%；与拟合曲线53%按精度合并（本线证据权重75%）。","evidence":[{"text":"新华社：广深港高铁香港段2025年客量超3000万人次","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":2.27,"ratio":0.7654386748699804,"real":1.7375,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 2.27 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.765（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 28.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 107.06 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 26 公里 = 203 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.48 节/列 = 1,926 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 669 座/列 = 13.60 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.6% = 7.83 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 2.270 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.765 = 13.61 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 1.13 亿元\n线路维护 = 26 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.52 亿元\n折旧 = 26 公里 × 28.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 12.19 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 12.12 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.61 − 1.13 − 0.52 − 12.19 − 12.12 = -12.35 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"国家铁路局：广深港跨境客流","url":"https://www.nra.gov.cn/xwzx/xwxx/xwlb/202603/t20260313_350894.shtml","note":"报道2025跨境客流3579.4万人；与港铁年报3109.5万人有差异，单列冲突。"},{"title":"港铁2025年报十年统计","url":"https://www.mtr.com.hk/archive/corporate/en/investor/annual2025/E13.pdf","note":"2025高铁客量31,095千人，与另一跨境报道口径未调和。"},{"title":"港铁2025年度业绩公告","url":"https://www.mtr.com.hk/archive/corporate/en/press_release/PR-26-020-E.pdf","note":"香港段高铁客量31.1百万人；不将集团净利作为香港高铁段净利。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R007","name":"京沈高铁京冀段","km":290,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"华北","via":"北京朝阳,密云,兴隆,承德,平泉,冀辽界","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-0.0195,"lo":-11.9906,"hi":12.7688,"opProfit":17.1627,"opLo":6.0331,"opHi":28.2417,"perKm":-0.67,"opPerKm":591.82,"pProb":0.495,"pProbOp":0.981,"rev":42.0043,"emuCost":8.8246,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":2.3655172413793104,"2020":1.013793103448276,"2021":56.772413793103446,"2022":40.54827586206896,"2023":72.65172413793104,"2024":73.86896551724138,"2025":82.46896551724137,"2026":86.30689655172414},"cost":{"train":16.1416,"infra":8.7,"dep":8.6171,"int":8.5652},"sup":{"qJul":86.30689655172414,"qJan":86.30689655172414,"qYear":84.581,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 86.3 对、2026-01-31周六 86.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 84.6 对/日。","longRate":0.5397560030364776,"carsAvg":12.48,"seatsAvg":892.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率54%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.46024399696352236},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5397560030364776}],"trainKm":17905747,"carKm":223463267,"seatKm":15978148248},"dem":{"load":0.6088,"loadLo":0.5237,"loadHi":0.7076,"prior":0.6088,"pkm":9726773993,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计61%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7851674353720367,"real":0.4318,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.785（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.79 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 84.58 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 290 公里 = 1,791 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.48 节/列 = 22,346 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 892 座/列 = 159.78 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.9% = 97.27 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.785 = 42.00 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 16.14 亿元\n线路维护 = 290 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.70 亿元\n折旧 = 290 公里 × 1.79 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.62 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 8.57 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 42.00 − 16.14 − 8.70 − 8.62 − 8.57 = -0.02 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通募集说明书：2023财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-02-21/242382_20250221_5CXE.pdf","note":"PDF第53–58页，2025发行文件里的2023数据。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"河北建投交通投资2025公司债券主承销商核查材料","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf","note":"Astra独立读取并视觉核对财务页；金额及主体边界见独立审计。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"京沈铁路客运专线京冀有限公司","year":"2024","netProfit":-5.49,"revenue":23.68,"note":"文中公司京冀主体明确；项目介绍混全京沈697.626公里，不能将该公司金额赋予全京沈","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf"}},{"id":"R008","name":"京沈高铁辽宁段","km":406,"speed":350,"opened":"2018","region":"东北","via":"冀辽界,喀左,朝阳,阜新,沈阳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.4949,"lo":-21.3806,"hi":9.453,"opProfit":17.5602,"opLo":4.6022,"opHi":30.1243,"perKm":-159.97,"opPerKm":432.52,"pProb":0.27,"pProbOp":0.964,"rev":49.1415,"emuCost":10.5977,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":17.74137931034483,"2020":17.449507389162562,"2021":56.206896551724135,"2022":36.46551724137931,"2023":60.48645320197044,"2024":62.54679802955665,"2025":71.30541871921183,"2026":73.46182266009852},"cost":{"train":19.4013,"infra":12.18,"dep":12.0639,"int":11.9912},"sup":{"qJul":73.46182266009852,"qJan":76.2179802955665,"qYear":73.378,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 73.5 对、2026-01-31周六 76.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 73.4 对/日。","longRate":0.5228827681011216,"carsAvg":12.34,"seatsAvg":881.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.47711723189887845},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5228827681011216}],"trainKm":21747640,"carKm":268364288,"seatKm":19177106467},"dem":{"load":0.5982,"loadLo":0.5126,"loadHi":0.6981,"prior":0.5982,"pkm":11471932443,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7788411223288865,"real":0.4284,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.779（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.79 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 73.38 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 406 公里 = 2,175 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.34 节/列 = 26,836 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 882 座/列 = 191.77 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 59.8% = 114.72 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.779 = 49.14 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 19.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 406 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 12.18 亿元\n折旧 = 406 公里 × 1.79 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 12.06 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 11.99 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 49.14 − 19.40 − 12.18 − 12.06 − 11.99 = -6.49 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R009","name":"哈大高铁","km":921,"speed":350,"opened":"2012","region":"东北","via":"大连,瓦房店,鲅鱼圈,营口,鞍山,辽阳,沈阳,铁岭,四平,长春,德惠,哈尔滨","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":22.6193,"lo":-12.7487,"hi":48.2496,"opProfit":46.0127,"opLo":19.5358,"opHi":72.0155,"perKm":245.59,"opPerKm":499.59,"pProb":0.779,"pProbOp":0.99,"rev":116.0618,"emuCost":23.001,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":57.888888888888886,"2018":57.398148148148145,"2019":63.75871459694989,"2020":44.21895424836601,"2021":67.04364224137932,"2022":53.40948275862069,"2023":74.21174568965517,"2024":76.31681034482759,"2025":80.2052801724138,"2026":80.18049568965517},"cost":{"train":42.4191,"infra":27.63,"dep":15.2886,"int":8.1048},"sup":{"qJul":80.18049568965517,"qJan":77.26185344827586,"qYear":77.11,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 80.2 对、2026-01-31周六 77.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 77.1 对/日。","longRate":0.38973363572220543,"carsAvg":11.235,"seatsAvg":798.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率39%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6102663642777946},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.38973363572220543}],"trainKm":51843547,"carKm":582451315,"seatKm":41401401988},"dem":{"load":0.6359,"loadLo":0.56,"loadHi":0.7221,"prior":0.6019,"pkm":26328993668,"kind":"der","text":"哈大高铁累计运送由6.7亿（2022-12）增至10亿（2025-06），约1.29亿人次/年（运送含跨线直通）；平均在本线乘距约250公里，alpha取0.27。 乘距比例不确定，放宽不确定度。 换算本线口径约77%；与拟合曲线60%按精度合并（本线证据权重18%）。","evidence":[{"text":"哈大高铁累计运送报道","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8014794942417675,"real":0.4408,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.801（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.00 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 27% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 77.11 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 921 公里 = 5,184 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.23 节/列 = 58,245 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 799 座/列 = 414.01 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 63.6% = 263.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.801 = 116.06 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.1 元 = 42.42 亿元\n线路维护 = 921 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 27.63 亿元\n折旧 = 921 公里 × 1.00 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 15.29 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 27%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 8.10 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 116.06 − 42.42 − 27.63 − 15.29 − 8.10 = +22.62 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"辽宁省政府：哈大累计客流","url":"https://www.ln.gov.cn/web/qmzx/lnsqmzxxtpsnxd/lnzxd/bm/2025061909052553985/index.shtml","note":"截至2025-06-17累计10亿，含跨线直通，不是2025年实绩。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R010","name":"秦沈客专","km":405,"speed":200,"opened":"2003","region":"华北-东北","via":"秦皇岛,山海关,葫芦岛,锦州,盘锦,沈阳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.9955,"lo":-15.8632,"hi":-4.8228,"opProfit":-5.0354,"opLo":-10.5107,"opHi":0.0738,"perKm":-246.8,"opPerKm":-124.33,"pProb":0.007,"pProbOp":0.103,"rev":12.5337,"emuCost":5.7268,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":57.82178217821782,"2018":58.61138613861386,"2019":59.44059405940594,"2020":28.804455445544555,"2021":41.084158415841586,"2022":34.67821782178218,"2023":41.08044554455446,"2024":43.975247524752476,"2025":44.88985148514851,"2026":47.226485148514854},"cost":{"train":9.4692,"infra":8.1,"dep":2.4875,"int":2.4725},"sup":{"qJul":47.226485148514854,"qJan":45.50371287128713,"qYear":45.416,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 47.2 对、2026-01-31周六 45.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.4 对/日。","longRate":0.5517535836892999,"carsAvg":12.414,"seatsAvg":931.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率55%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.44824641631070006},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5517535836892999}],"trainKm":13427318,"carKm":166687110,"seatKm":12501533269},"dem":{"load":0.4634,"loadLo":0.3519,"loadHi":0.6101,"prior":0.4634,"pkm":5792885698,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6979484724063579,"real":0.2164,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.698（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.37 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约23年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.42 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 405 公里 = 1,343 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.41 节/列 = 16,669 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 931 座/列 = 125.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.3% = 57.93 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.698 = 12.53 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.1 元 = 9.47 亿元\n线路维护 = 405 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 8.10 亿元\n折旧 = 405 公里 × 0.37 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.49 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通23年）× 3.3% = 2.47 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.53 − 9.47 − 8.10 − 2.49 − 2.47 = -10.00 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R011","name":"津秦高铁","km":271.24,"speed":350,"opened":"2013","region":"华北","via":"天津,滨海西,唐山,北戴河,秦皇岛","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-1.7919,"lo":-10.5762,"hi":8.491,"opProfit":9.6102,"opLo":1.5211,"opHi":17.3749,"perKm":-66.06,"opPerKm":354.31,"pProb":0.398,"pProbOp":0.936,"rev":29.6857,"emuCost":6.555,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":47.3421052631579,"2018":48.94736842105263,"2019":50.89473684210526,"2020":32.94736842105263,"2021":58.44736842105263,"2022":47.44736842105263,"2023":53.18421052631579,"2024":60.0921052631579,"2025":61.0921052631579,"2026":65.40789473684211},"cost":{"train":11.9384,"infra":8.1372,"dep":5.7183,"int":5.6838},"sup":{"qJul":65.40789473684211,"qJan":63.75,"qYear":63.267,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 65.4 对、2026-01-31周六 63.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 63.3 对/日。","longRate":0.6326016898008447,"carsAvg":13.251,"seatsAvg":950.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率63%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.36739831019915525},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6326016898008447}],"trainKm":12527125,"carKm":165991843,"seatKm":11905479314},"dem":{"load":0.5871,"loadLo":0.5009,"loadHi":0.6881,"prior":0.5871,"pkm":6989816468,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计59%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7721815067312842,"real":0.4247,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.772（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.27 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 63.27 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 271.24 公里 = 1,253 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.25 节/列 = 16,599 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 950 座/列 = 119.05 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 58.7% = 69.90 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.772 = 29.69 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.8 元 = 11.94 亿元\n线路维护 = 271.24 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.14 亿元\n折旧 = 271.24 公里 × 1.27 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.72 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 5.68 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 29.69 − 11.94 − 8.14 − 5.72 − 5.68 = -1.79 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通募集说明书：2023财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-02-21/242382_20250221_5CXE.pdf","note":"PDF第53–58页，2025发行文件里的2023数据。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"河北建投交通投资2025公司债券主承销商核查材料","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf","note":"Astra独立读取并视觉核对财务页；金额及主体边界见独立审计。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"津秦铁路客运专线有限公司","year":"2024","netProfit":-7.12,"revenue":18.11,"note":"线路主体近似，271.24公里一致","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf"}},{"id":"R012","name":"京津城际主线","km":117,"speed":350,"opened":"2008","region":"华北","via":"北京南,武清,天津","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":2.0644,"lo":-3.9221,"hi":6.2018,"opProfit":5.0773,"opLo":0.6775,"opHi":9.1853,"perKm":176.44,"opPerKm":433.96,"pProb":0.572,"pProbOp":0.937,"rev":16.9348,"emuCost":4.549,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":80.5,"2018":88.5,"2019":116.0,"2020":74.5,"2021":120.0,"2022":85.0,"2023":117.0,"2024":116.0,"2025":115.0,"2026":115.0},"cost":{"train":8.3474,"infra":3.51,"dep":2.1558,"int":0.8571},"sup":{"qJul":115.0,"qJan":115.0,"qYear":112.7,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 115.0 对、2026-01-31周六 115.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 112.7 对/日。","longRate":0.478,"carsAvg":11.967,"seatsAvg":853.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率48%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.522},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.478}],"trainKm":9625707,"carKm":115194686,"seatKm":8217947351},"dem":{"load":0.5149,"loadLo":0.4469,"loadHi":0.5932,"prior":0.6297,"pkm":4231574722,"kind":"der","text":"京津城际2023年日均7.3万人次（全年约2665万）；多数为北京南—天津端到端，alpha取0.9；到2026年增长按5%。 换算本线口径约36%；与拟合曲线63%按精度合并（本线证据权重42%）。","evidence":[{"text":"北京日报2023京津城际客流","url":"https://xinwen.bjd.com.cn/content/s64cb9806e4b0285efd6d592e.html"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.46,"ratio":0.87,"real":0.4002,"kind":"obs","text":"京津城际北京南—天津二等座54.5元/约120公里，折扣少，扣9%增值税后约0.42元/人公里；按实际票价固定，不用全国系数。"},"capText":"投资 1.11 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约18年，按有息负债 20% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 112.70 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 117 公里 = 963 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.97 节/列 = 11,519 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 854 座/列 = 82.18 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.5% = 42.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.460 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.870 = 16.93 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 8.35 亿元\n线路维护 = 117 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.51 亿元\n折旧 = 117 公里 × 1.11 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.16 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 20%（开通18年）× 3.3% = 0.86 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 16.93 − 8.35 − 3.51 − 2.16 − 0.86 = +2.06 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京津城际2026年日常开行123对","url":"https://tj.people.com.cn/n2/2026/0801/c375366-41656506.html","note":"时点开行对数，不是全年客公里。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R013","name":"京津城际延伸段","km":44.7,"speed":350,"opened":"2015","region":"华北","via":"天津,滨海天津","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.8925,"lo":-3.6874,"hi":-2.3387,"opProfit":-0.969,"opLo":-1.5422,"opHi":-0.5354,"perKm":-647.08,"opPerKm":-216.78,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.003,"rev":0.9109,"emuCost":0.2829,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":27.5,"2018":27.5,"2019":27.5,"2020":19.5,"2021":27.5,"2022":15.5,"2023":28.0,"2024":28.0,"2025":28.0,"2026":28.0},"cost":{"train":0.539,"infra":1.341,"dep":0.9646,"int":0.9588},"sup":{"qJul":28.0,"qJan":28.0,"qYear":27.44,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 28.0 对、2026-01-31周六 28.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 27.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":576.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：经军粮城北/滨海65列全为8节复兴号。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":576,"share":1,"label":"复兴号8节"}],"trainKm":895395,"carKm":7163157,"seatKm":515747313},"dem":{"load":0.5232,"loadLo":0.4356,"loadHi":0.6285,"prior":0.5232,"pkm":269848051,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.46,"ratio":0.7338506921754199,"real":0.3376,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.46 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.734（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 27.44 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 44.7 公里 = 90 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 716 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 576 座/列 = 5.16 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.3% = 2.70 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.460 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.734 = 0.91 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.54 亿元\n线路维护 = 44.7 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 1.34 亿元\n折旧 = 44.7 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 0.96 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.91 − 0.54 − 1.34 − 0.96 − 0.96 = -2.89 亿元","notes":["更正：invPerKm 由 1.11 改为 None——独立审计：修正源图平均投资合并格读数（源图该格为空，改用缺省投资并标注）"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R014","name":"津保铁路","km":158,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"华北","via":"天津西,胜芳,霸州,白沟,白洋淀,保定","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-9.3468,"lo":-12.5737,"hi":-6.772,"opProfit":-1.3975,"opLo":-3.6627,"opHi":0.8116,"perKm":-591.57,"opPerKm":-88.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.198,"rev":5.5189,"emuCost":2.1649,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":25.942028985507246,"2018":26.942028985507246,"2019":30.942028985507246,"2020":27.0,"2021":29.942028985507246,"2022":30.0,"2023":31.41304347826087,"2024":39.76086956521739,"2025":40.02173913043478,"2026":41.7536231884058},"cost":{"train":3.7564,"infra":3.16,"dep":3.9867,"int":3.9626},"sup":{"qJul":41.7536231884058,"qJan":41.7536231884058,"qYear":40.919,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 41.8 对、2026-01-31周六 41.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 40.9 对/日。","longRate":0.6689796945505033,"carsAvg":13.352,"seatsAvg":1001.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率67%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.3310203054494967},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6689796945505033}],"trainKm":4719546,"carKm":63014607,"seatKm":4726095505},"dem":{"load":0.4553,"loadLo":0.3444,"loadHi":0.602,"prior":0.4553,"pkm":2151986670,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6931293914238233,"real":0.2565,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.693（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 40.92 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 158 公里 = 472 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.35 节/列 = 6,301 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1001 座/列 = 47.26 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.5% = 21.52 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.693 = 5.52 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.9 元 = 3.76 亿元\n线路维护 = 158 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.16 亿元\n折旧 = 158 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 3.96 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.52 − 3.76 − 3.16 − 3.99 − 3.96 = -9.35 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R015","name":"京雄城际新建段","km":92.03,"speed":350,"opened":"2020","region":"华北","via":"李营,大兴机场,固安,霸州,雄安","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-12.2789,"lo":-15.5378,"hi":-10.0101,"opProfit":-1.2822,"opLo":-2.5582,"opHi":-0.1954,"perKm":-1334.23,"opPerKm":-139.32,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.06,"rev":2.6114,"emuCost":0.6066,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":1.7735849056603774,"2021":14.0,"2022":1.0,"2023":17.0,"2024":22.358490566037737,"2025":23.495283018867923,"2026":23.787735849056602},"cost":{"train":1.1326,"infra":2.7609,"dep":5.515,"int":5.4818},"sup":{"qJul":23.787735849056602,"qJan":24.089622641509433,"qYear":23.464,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 23.8 对、2026-01-31周六 24.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 23.5 对/日。","longRate":0.21010668253023992,"carsAvg":9.744,"seatsAvg":686.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率21%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7898933174697601},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.21010668253023992}],"trainKm":1576335,"carKm":15359623,"seatKm":1081864691},"dem":{"load":0.5111,"loadLo":0.4235,"loadHi":0.6168,"prior":0.5111,"pkm":552934414,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计51%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.7265772701939401,"real":0.4723,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.727（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 3.61 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 23.46 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 92.03 公里 = 158 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.74 节/列 = 1,536 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 686 座/列 = 10.82 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.1% = 5.53 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.727 = 2.61 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.9 元 = 1.13 亿元\n线路维护 = 92.03 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 2.76 亿元\n折旧 = 92.03 公里 × 3.61 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.51 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 5.48 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.61 − 1.13 − 2.76 − 5.51 − 5.48 = -12.28 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R016","name":"津兴城际新建段","km":47,"speed":250,"opened":"2023","region":"华北","via":"固安东,霸州,胜芳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-3.6792,"lo":-4.5416,"hi":-3.0993,"opProfit":-0.8945,"opLo":-1.2604,"opHi":-0.62,"perKm":-782.8,"opPerKm":-190.31,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2319,"emuCost":0.1017,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":9.0,"2025":10.0,"2026":11.0},"cost":{"train":0.1863,"infra":0.94,"dep":1.3966,"int":1.3881},"sup":{"qJul":11.0,"qJan":11.0,"qYear":10.78,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 11.0 对、2026-01-31周六 11.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 10.8 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":600.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":1.0},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":369862,"carKm":2958894,"seatKm":221917080},"dem":{"load":0.3361,"loadLo":0.2392,"loadHi":0.4724,"prior":0.3361,"pkm":74596873,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计34%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6216208687431116,"real":0.3108,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.622（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.79 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 47 公里 = 37 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 296 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 600 座/列 = 2.22 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 33.6% = 0.75 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.622 = 0.23 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.19 亿元\n线路维护 = 47 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.94 亿元\n折旧 = 47 公里 × 1.79 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.40 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 1.39 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.23 − 0.19 − 0.94 − 1.40 − 1.39 = -3.68 亿元","notes":["更正：invPerKm 由 1.7 改为 1.79——独立审计：修正源图平均投资合并格读数","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R017","name":"怀兴城际廊兴段","km":39.3,"speed":200,"opened":"2024","region":"华北","via":"大兴机场,廊坊","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.2954,"lo":-7.8062,"hi":-5.2858,"opProfit":-0.7929,"opLo":-1.0978,"opHi":-0.5747,"perKm":-1601.88,"opPerKm":-201.75,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0536,"emuCost":0.0348,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":4.5,"2026":4.5},"cost":{"train":0.0605,"infra":0.786,"dep":2.7596,"int":2.7429},"sup":{"qJul":4.5,"qJan":4.5,"qYear":4.41,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 4.5 对、2026-01-31周六 4.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 4.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":566.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：廊坊↔大兴机场16列全为8节。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":566,"share":1,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":126518,"carKm":1012148,"seatKm":71609465},"dem":{"load":0.2601,"loadLo":0.178,"loadHi":0.3801,"prior":0.2601,"pkm":18626065,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计26%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.5760010455563058,"real":0.288,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.576（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 4.23 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 4.41 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 39.3 公里 = 13 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 101 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 566 座/列 = 0.72 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 26.0% = 0.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.576 = 0.05 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.06 亿元\n线路维护 = 39.3 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.79 亿元\n折旧 = 39.3 公里 × 4.23 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.76 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 2.74 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.05 − 0.06 − 0.79 − 2.76 − 2.74 = -6.30 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北文旅厅：怀兴廊兴开通一周年","url":"https://whly.hebei.gov.cn/c/2025-12-29/583768.html","note":"首年152万人，初期最高8列至最高19列；最高值不作年均实开。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R018","name":"京唐城际","km":148.7,"speed":350,"opened":"2022–2025","region":"华北","via":"通州,宝坻,玉田,唐山","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-15.3312,"lo":-19.9415,"hi":-12.0498,"opProfit":-0.4668,"opLo":-2.7576,"opHi":1.472,"perKm":-1031.01,"opPerKm":-31.39,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.374,"rev":6.431,"emuCost":1.312,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":19.891156462585034,"2024":17.034013605442176,"2025":17.034013605442176,"2026":31.75170068027211},"cost":{"train":2.4368,"infra":4.461,"dep":7.4546,"int":7.4097},"sup":{"qJul":31.75170068027211,"qJan":28.75170068027211,"qYear":29.609,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 31.8 对、2026-01-31周六 28.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 29.6 对/日。","longRate":0.2815117300482057,"carsAvg":10.337,"seatsAvg":730.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率28%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7184882699517943},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.2815117300482057}],"trainKm":3214105,"carKm":33222745,"seatKm":2349333182},"dem":{"load":0.5897,"loadLo":0.515,"loadHi":0.6751,"prior":0.5291,"pkm":1385308418,"kind":"der","text":"京唐、京滨城际2023年7月暑运合计客座率85.7%；换全年下调约12个百分点，取74%，并与京滨共用一个观测。 换算本线口径约74%；与拟合曲线53%按精度合并（本线证据权重26%）。","evidence":[{"text":"人民网 2023暑运","url":"http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0815/c1004-40057010.html"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7737119755200539,"real":0.4642,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.774（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 3.02 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 29.61 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 148.7 公里 = 321 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.34 节/列 = 3,322 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 731 座/列 = 23.49 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 59.0% = 13.85 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.774 = 6.43 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 2.44 亿元\n线路维护 = 148.7 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.46 亿元\n折旧 = 148.7 公里 × 3.02 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.45 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 7.41 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.43 − 2.44 − 4.46 − 7.45 − 7.41 = -15.33 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京唐高铁全线贯通","url":"https://wap.china-railway.com.cn/xwzx/zhxw/202511/t20251110_149808.html","note":"约149公里含北京隧道，不再加13公里。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R019","name":"京滨城际宝坻北辰段","km":57.7,"speed":250,"opened":"2022","region":"华北","via":"宝坻,北辰","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.8724,"lo":-4.7616,"hi":-3.2825,"opProfit":-1.1604,"opLo":-1.6086,"opHi":-0.8421,"perKm":-671.13,"opPerKm":-201.11,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.056,"emuCost":0.034,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":2.0,"2024":2.0,"2025":2.0,"2026":3.0},"cost":{"train":0.0624,"infra":1.154,"dep":1.3601,"int":1.3519},"sup":{"qJul":3.0,"qJan":3.0,"qYear":2.94,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 3.0 对、2026-01-31周六 3.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 2.9 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":576.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：经北辰6列均为CR400BF。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":576,"share":1,"label":"CR400BF"}],"trainKm":123836,"carKm":990686,"seatKm":71329386},"dem":{"load":0.2698,"loadLo":0.1855,"loadHi":0.3923,"prior":0.2698,"pkm":19242301,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计27%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.5817967850771711,"real":0.2909,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.582（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.42 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 2.94 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 57.7 公里 = 12 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 99 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 576 座/列 = 0.71 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 27.0% = 0.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.582 = 0.06 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.06 亿元\n线路维护 = 57.7 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.15 亿元\n折旧 = 57.7 公里 × 1.42 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.36 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 1.35 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.06 − 0.06 − 1.15 − 1.36 − 1.35 = -3.87 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R020","name":"京张高铁主线","km":174,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华北","via":"北京北,清河,昌平,八达岭,怀来,下花园,张家口","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-7.2223,"lo":-14.7801,"hi":-0.359,"opProfit":8.7648,"opLo":2.8806,"opHi":14.8309,"perKm":-415.07,"opPerKm":503.72,"pProb":0.092,"pProbOp":0.971,"rev":24.2167,"emuCost":5.5562,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":19.726744186046513,"2021":58.76162790697674,"2022":35.354651162790695,"2023":61.89825581395349,"2024":79.35755813953489,"2025":100.35755813953489,"2026":100.35755813953489},"cost":{"train":10.232,"infra":5.22,"dep":8.0177,"int":7.9694},"sup":{"qJul":100.35755813953489,"qJan":97.35755813953489,"qYear":96.843,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 100.4 对、2026-01-31周六 97.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 96.8 对/日。","longRate":0.41421652231845435,"carsAvg":11.438,"seatsAvg":813.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率41%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5857834776815456},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.41421652231845435}],"trainKm":12300986,"carKm":140698643,"seatKm":10011592042},"dem":{"load":0.5679,"loadLo":0.4908,"loadHi":0.657,"prior":0.6187,"pkm":5685253611,"kind":"der","text":"京张高铁2024年发送2110万人次；主要客流为北京—张家口/崇礼/大同/呼和浩特，多数走完主线，alpha取0.8。 换算本线口径约39%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.20）；与拟合曲线62%按精度合并（本线证据权重23%）。","evidence":[{"text":"京张高铁2024年客流","url":"https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20241230A01F9500"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.56,"ratio":0.7606374933963869,"real":0.426,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.56 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.761（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.78 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 96.84 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 174 公里 = 1,230 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.44 节/列 = 14,070 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 814 座/列 = 100.12 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.8% = 56.85 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.560 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.761 = 24.22 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 10.23 亿元\n线路维护 = 174 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.22 亿元\n折旧 = 174 公里 × 2.78 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.02 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 7.97 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 24.22 − 10.23 − 5.22 − 8.02 − 7.97 = -7.22 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R021","name":"崇礼铁路","km":53,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"华北","via":"下花园,崇礼,太子城","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.1332,"lo":-3.8791,"hi":-2.6073,"opProfit":-0.9404,"opLo":-1.3745,"opHi":-0.6018,"perKm":-591.18,"opPerKm":-177.43,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.3744,"emuCost":0.1459,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":1.0,"2021":5.0,"2022":1.0,"2023":4.0,"2024":9.0,"2025":9.0,"2026":9.0},"cost":{"train":0.2548,"infra":1.06,"dep":1.0998,"int":1.0931},"sup":{"qJul":9.0,"qJan":9.0,"qYear":8.82,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 9.0 对、2026-01-31周六 9.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 8.8 对/日。","longRate":0.556,"carsAvg":12.448,"seatsAvg":933.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率56%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.44399999999999995},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.556}],"trainKm":341246,"carKm":4247828,"seatKm":318587079},"dem":{"load":0.3418,"loadLo":0.244,"loadHi":0.479,"prior":0.3418,"pkm":108908688,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计34%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.625041420257518,"real":0.3438,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.625（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 8.82 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 53 公里 = 34 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.45 节/列 = 425 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 934 座/列 = 3.19 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 34.2% = 1.09 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.625 = 0.37 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.1 元 = 0.25 亿元\n线路维护 = 53 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.06 亿元\n折旧 = 53 公里 × 1.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.10 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 1.09 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.37 − 0.25 − 1.06 − 1.10 − 1.09 = -3.13 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R022","name":"京张延庆支线","km":9.3,"speed":160,"opened":"2020","region":"华北","via":"八达岭,延庆","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-0.5899,"lo":-0.721,"hi":-0.4992,"opProfit":-0.1897,"opLo":-0.2603,"opHi":-0.1372,"perKm":-634.3,"opPerKm":-204.0,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0131,"emuCost":0.0095,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":5.0,"2022":5.0,"2023":5.0,"2024":6.0,"2025":6.0,"2026":6.0},"cost":{"train":0.0168,"infra":0.186,"dep":0.2007,"int":0.1995},"sup":{"qJul":6.0,"qJan":6.0,"qYear":5.88,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 6.0 对、2026-01-31周六 6.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 5.9 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":586.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：D67xx 12列全为CRH5A（586座）。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":586,"share":1,"label":"CRH5A"}],"trainKm":39919,"carKm":319355,"seatKm":23392722},"dem":{"load":0.2307,"loadLo":0.1409,"loadHi":0.3777,"prior":0.2307,"pkm":5396491,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计23%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.56,"ratio":0.4340363772519884,"real":0.2431,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.56 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.434（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 5.88 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 9.3 公里 = 4 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 32 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 586 座/列 = 0.23 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 23.1% = 0.05 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.560 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.434 = 0.01 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.02 亿元\n线路维护 = 9.3 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.19 亿元\n折旧 = 9.3 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.20 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 0.20 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.01 − 0.02 − 0.19 − 0.20 − 0.20 = -0.59 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R023","name":"张呼高铁","km":286,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"华北","via":"张家口,怀安,兴和,乌兰察布,卓资,呼和浩特","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.7107,"lo":-16.7707,"hi":-5.2068,"opProfit":0.2705,"opLo":-4.9421,"opHi":5.5865,"perKm":-374.5,"opPerKm":9.46,"pProb":0.009,"pProbOp":0.511,"rev":14.1972,"emuCost":4.6635,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":3.6486486486486487,"2019":3.6486486486486487,"2020":16.56081081081081,"2021":40.66891891891892,"2022":21.091216216216218,"2023":40.395270270270274,"2024":47.51013513513514,"2025":58.373310810810814,"2026":59.192567567567565},"cost":{"train":8.2066,"infra":5.72,"dep":5.5072,"int":5.474},"sup":{"qJul":59.192567567567565,"qJan":57.001689189189186,"qYear":56.908,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 59.2 对、2026-01-31周六 57.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 56.9 对/日。","longRate":0.4281022201929114,"carsAvg":11.425,"seatsAvg":856.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率43%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5718977798070886},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4281022201929114}],"trainKm":11881210,"carKm":135740664,"seatKm":10180549812},"dem":{"load":0.4808,"loadLo":0.3685,"loadHi":0.6274,"prior":0.4808,"pkm":4894885537,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.40942691364990474,"ratio":0.708407472940588,"real":0.29,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.41 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.708（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.16 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 56.91 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 286 公里 = 1,188 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.42 节/列 = 13,574 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 857 座/列 = 101.81 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.1% = 48.95 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.409 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.708 = 14.20 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 8.21 亿元\n线路维护 = 286 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.72 亿元\n折旧 = 286 公里 × 1.16 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.51 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 5.47 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 14.20 − 8.21 − 5.72 − 5.51 − 5.47 = -10.71 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通募集说明书：2023财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-02-21/242382_20250221_5CXE.pdf","note":"PDF第53–58页，2025发行文件里的2023数据。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"河北建投交通投资2025公司债券主承销商核查材料","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf","note":"Astra独立读取并视觉核对财务页；金额及主体边界见独立审计。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"呼张铁路客运专线有限责任公司","year":"2024","netProfit":-4.67,"revenue":11.42,"note":"公司全线近似；正文286、表286.8公里源内差异","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf"}},{"id":"R024","name":"大张高铁","km":141.5,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"华北","via":"怀安,天镇,阳高,大同","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.185,"lo":-10.9087,"hi":-6.2215,"opProfit":-1.2063,"opLo":-2.9308,"opHi":0.4485,"perKm":-578.44,"opPerKm":-85.25,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.159,"rev":3.9398,"emuCost":1.2908,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":9.0,"2021":16.0,"2022":12.0,"2023":21.0,"2024":25.0,"2025":36.107438016528924,"2026":40.107438016528924},"cost":{"train":2.3161,"infra":2.83,"dep":3.4999,"int":3.4788},"sup":{"qJul":40.107438016528924,"qJan":38.107438016528924,"qYear":38.3,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 40.1 对、2026-01-31周六 38.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.3 对/日。","longRate":0.18704698124871214,"carsAvg":9.496,"seatsAvg":712.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率19%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.8129530187512879},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.18704698124871214}],"trainKm":3956228,"carKm":37569832,"seatKm":2817737372},"dem":{"load":0.4503,"loadLo":0.3397,"loadHi":0.5968,"prior":0.4503,"pkm":1268713676,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45000000000000007,"ratio":0.6900807574751556,"real":0.3105,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.690（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.49 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.30 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 141.5 公里 = 396 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.50 节/列 = 3,757 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 712 座/列 = 28.18 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.0% = 12.69 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.690 = 3.94 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.7 元 = 2.32 亿元\n线路维护 = 141.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.83 亿元\n折旧 = 141.5 公里 × 1.49 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.50 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 3.48 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.94 − 2.32 − 2.83 − 3.50 − 3.48 = -8.18 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R025","name":"集大原高铁新建区段","km":269.6,"speed":250,"opened":"2024","region":"华北","via":"乌兰察布,丰镇,大同,怀仁,应县,山阴,朔州,原平","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-12.9327,"lo":-17.8186,"hi":-8.9788,"opProfit":-1.8672,"opLo":-5.6938,"opHi":1.798,"perKm":-479.7,"opPerKm":-69.26,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.227,"rev":8.5732,"emuCost":2.8207,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":41.66019417475728,"2026":44.74757281553398},"cost":{"train":5.0484,"infra":5.392,"dep":5.5494,"int":5.516},"sup":{"qJul":44.74757281553398,"qJan":42.94174757281554,"qYear":42.945,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 44.7 对、2026-01-31周六 42.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 42.9 对/日。","longRate":0.21421740073768714,"carsAvg":9.714,"seatsAvg":728.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率21%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.7857825992623129},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.21421740073768714}],"trainKm":8451958,"carKm":82100114,"seatKm":6157508521},"dem":{"load":0.4159,"loadLo":0.3083,"loadHi":0.5611,"prior":0.4159,"pkm":2561118254,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计42%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6694876660586602,"real":0.3347,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.669（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.24 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 42.95 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 269.6 公里 = 845 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.71 节/列 = 8,210 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 729 座/列 = 61.58 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 41.6% = 25.61 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.669 = 8.57 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.8 元 = 5.05 亿元\n线路维护 = 269.6 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.39 亿元\n折旧 = 269.6 公里 × 1.24 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.55 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 5.52 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.57 − 5.05 − 5.39 − 5.55 − 5.52 = -12.93 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"集大原新建区段里程","url":"https://www.wulanchabu.gov.cn/accb/jrwlcb/1709861.html","note":"约269.6公里新建，309公里通道含既有线。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R026","name":"大西高铁原平太原段","km":114,"speed":250,"opened":"2018","region":"华北","via":"原平,忻州,太原","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.9842,"lo":-8.2649,"hi":-4.1485,"opProfit":-0.7769,"opLo":-2.4756,"opHi":0.8881,"perKm":-524.93,"opPerKm":-68.15,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.256,"rev":4.3192,"emuCost":1.5757,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":6.5,"2020":11.0,"2021":13.387387387387387,"2022":10.193693693693694,"2023":14.693693693693694,"2024":20.38738738738739,"2025":52.306306306306304,"2026":59.387387387387385},"cost":{"train":2.8162,"infra":2.28,"dep":2.6115,"int":2.5958},"sup":{"qJul":59.387387387387385,"qJan":55.0,"qYear":55.995,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 59.4 对、2026-01-31周六 55.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 56.0 对/日。","longRate":0.23030764563106798,"carsAvg":9.842,"seatsAvg":738.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率23%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.769692354368932},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.23030764563106798}],"trainKm":4659902,"carKm":45864905,"seatKm":3439867854},"dem":{"load":0.4796,"loadLo":0.3673,"loadHi":0.6262,"prior":0.4796,"pkm":1649608291,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7076564349813647,"real":0.2618,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.708（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.38 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 55.99 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 114 公里 = 466 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.84 节/列 = 4,586 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 738 座/列 = 34.40 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.0% = 16.50 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.708 = 4.32 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.9 元 = 2.82 亿元\n线路维护 = 114 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.28 亿元\n折旧 = 114 公里 × 1.38 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.61 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 2.60 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.32 − 2.82 − 2.28 − 2.61 − 2.60 = -5.98 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R027","name":"大西高铁太原西安段","km":571,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"华北-西北","via":"太原,晋中,平遥,灵石,临汾,侯马,运城,永济,大荔,渭南,西安北","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-27.6865,"lo":-40.2265,"hi":-17.21,"opProfit":-1.6044,"opLo":-11.7905,"opHi":8.2152,"perKm":-484.88,"opPerKm":-28.1,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.392,"rev":26.5605,"emuCost":9.4245,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":33.23292469352014,"2018":37.31873905429072,"2019":41.481611208406306,"2020":42.95621716287216,"2021":47.52889667250438,"2022":43.29772329246935,"2023":48.868651488616464,"2024":50.96935201401051,"2025":61.30385288966725,"2026":67.52889667250437},"cost":{"train":16.7449,"infra":11.42,"dep":13.0805,"int":13.0017},"sup":{"qJul":67.52889667250437,"qJan":61.87478108581436,"qYear":63.337,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 67.5 对、2026-01-31周六 61.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 63.3 对/日。","longRate":0.2988112113903369,"carsAvg":10.39,"seatsAvg":779.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率30%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.701188788609663},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.2988112113903369}],"trainKm":26400814,"carKm":274317387,"seatKm":20573803996},"dem":{"load":0.4891,"loadLo":0.3764,"loadHi":0.6355,"prior":0.4891,"pkm":10062638992,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7133821334458988,"real":0.264,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.713（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.38 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 63.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 571 公里 = 2,640 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.39 节/列 = 27,432 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 779 座/列 = 205.74 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.9% = 100.63 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.713 = 26.56 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 16.74 亿元\n线路维护 = 571 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 11.42 亿元\n折旧 = 571 公里 × 1.38 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 13.08 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 13.00 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 26.56 − 16.74 − 11.42 − 13.08 − 13.00 = -27.69 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R028","name":"石太客专","km":189.93,"speed":250,"opened":"2009","region":"华北","via":"石家庄,阳泉北,太原","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.2668,"lo":-8.9387,"hi":-1.8624,"opProfit":-0.8032,"opLo":-4.078,"opHi":2.5808,"perKm":-277.3,"opPerKm":-42.29,"pProb":0.024,"pProbOp":0.347,"rev":8.5814,"emuCost":3.2296,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":26.0,"2018":29.5,"2019":32.5,"2020":24.0,"2021":33.5,"2022":27.0,"2023":35.0,"2024":39.0,"2025":48.0,"2026":52.44396551724138},"cost":{"train":5.586,"infra":3.7986,"dep":2.2385,"int":2.225},"sup":{"qJul":52.44396551724138,"qJan":47.44396551724138,"qYear":48.883,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 52.4 对、2026-01-31周六 47.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 48.9 对/日。","longRate":0.7337185830525191,"carsAvg":13.87,"seatsAvg":1040.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率73%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.26628141694748086},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.7337185830525191}],"trainKm":6777517,"carKm":94002455,"seatKm":7050184101},"dem":{"load":0.4691,"loadLo":0.3573,"loadHi":0.6158,"prior":0.4691,"pkm":3306895747,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计47%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.7013542779830608,"real":0.2595,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.701（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.71 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 48.88 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 189.93 公里 = 678 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.87 节/列 = 9,400 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1040 座/列 = 70.50 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.9% = 33.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.701 = 8.58 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 18.3 元 = 5.59 亿元\n线路维护 = 189.93 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.80 亿元\n折旧 = 189.93 公里 × 0.71 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.24 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 2.23 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.58 − 5.59 − 3.80 − 2.24 − 2.23 = -5.27 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通募集说明书：2023财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-02-21/242382_20250221_5CXE.pdf","note":"PDF第53–58页，2025发行文件里的2023数据。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"河北建投交通投资2025公司债券主承销商核查材料","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf","note":"Astra独立读取并视觉核对财务页；金额及主体边界见独立审计。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"石太客运专线有限公司","year":"2024","netProfit":3.19,"revenue":11.71,"note":"线路主体近似，189.93公里与现登记一致","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf"}},{"id":"R029","name":"太焦高铁","km":358.8,"speed":250,"opened":"2020","region":"华北-华中","via":"太原,晋中,长治,晋城,焦作","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-14.6427,"lo":-21.35,"hi":-8.8578,"opProfit":-0.5099,"opLo":-5.7224,"opHi":4.7139,"perKm":-408.1,"opPerKm":-14.21,"pProb":0.002,"pProbOp":0.416,"rev":13.8278,"emuCost":4.0891,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":27.39664804469274,"2022":25.318435754189945,"2023":29.318435754189945,"2024":31.502793296089386,"2025":37.94692737430167,"2026":39.73882681564246},"cost":{"train":7.1617,"infra":7.176,"dep":7.0877,"int":7.045},"sup":{"qJul":39.73882681564246,"qJan":37.53072625698324,"qYear":37.834,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 39.7 对、2026-01-31周六 37.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.8 对/日。","longRate":0.5013009875935753,"carsAvg":12.01,"seatsAvg":900.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.49869901240642467},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5013009875935753}],"trainKm":9909758,"carKm":119020239,"seatKm":8926517930},"dem":{"load":0.4493,"loadLo":0.3388,"loadHi":0.5959,"prior":0.4493,"pkm":4010867393,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6895172719822722,"real":0.3448,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.690（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.19 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 37.83 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 358.8 公里 = 991 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.01 节/列 = 11,902 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 901 座/列 = 89.27 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.9% = 40.11 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.690 = 13.83 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.8 元 = 7.16 亿元\n线路维护 = 358.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.18 亿元\n折旧 = 358.8 公里 × 1.19 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.09 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 7.05 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.83 − 7.16 − 7.18 − 7.09 − 7.05 = -14.64 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R030","name":"郑焦城际","km":77.8,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"华中","via":"郑州,焦作","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.8955,"lo":-4.3965,"hi":-1.5315,"opProfit":0.1432,"opLo":-1.0478,"opHi":1.4108,"perKm":-372.18,"opPerKm":18.4,"pProb":0.003,"pProbOp":0.549,"rev":3.3395,"emuCost":0.9599,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":14.0,"2018":23.0,"2019":25.5,"2020":11.0,"2021":25.5,"2022":44.5,"2023":53.0,"2024":51.0,"2025":54.0,"2026":56.5},"cost":{"train":1.6404,"infra":1.556,"dep":1.5239,"int":1.5148},"sup":{"qJul":56.5,"qJan":53.0,"qYear":53.611,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 56.5 对、2026-01-31周六 53.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 53.6 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.176,"seatsAvg":652.8,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：68列中CRH6A 25列，其余为CR300BF/CRH380B等跨线车，16节约15%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.368,"label":"CRH6A"},{"cars":8,"seats":590,"share":0.485,"label":"8节跨线"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.147,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":3044797,"carKm":27939060,"seatKm":1987722863},"dem":{"load":0.4762,"loadLo":0.364,"loadHi":0.6229,"prior":0.4762,"pkm":946532068,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.7056367173892588,"real":0.3528,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.706（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.18 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 53.61 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 77.8 公里 = 304 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.18 节/列 = 2,794 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 653 座/列 = 19.88 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 47.6% = 9.47 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.706 = 3.34 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.4 元 = 1.64 亿元\n线路维护 = 77.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.56 亿元\n折旧 = 77.8 公里 × 1.18 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.52 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 1.51 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.34 − 1.64 − 1.56 − 1.52 − 1.51 = -2.90 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R031","name":"呼包客运快速线","km":165,"speed":200,"opened":"2012","region":"华北","via":"呼和浩特,萨拉齐,包头","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.844,"lo":-12.771,"hi":-7.6419,"opProfit":-2.4164,"opLo":-4.3344,"opHi":-0.6316,"perKm":-596.61,"opPerKm":-146.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.04,"rev":4.0169,"emuCost":1.8654,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":12.0,"2018":13.0,"2019":13.0,"2020":17.0,"2021":20.5,"2022":18.0,"2023":22.5,"2024":23.5,"2025":28.5,"2026":44.0},"cost":{"train":3.1333,"infra":3.3,"dep":3.725,"int":3.7026},"sup":{"qJul":44.0,"qJan":42.5,"qYear":42.366,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 44.0 对、2026-01-31周六 42.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 42.4 对/日。","longRate":0.33,"carsAvg":10.64,"seatsAvg":798.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率33%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6699999999999999},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.33}],"trainKm":5103015,"carKm":54296078,"seatKm":4072205820},"dem":{"load":0.458,"loadLo":0.3469,"loadHi":0.6047,"prior":0.458,"pkm":1865139546,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6947346192612927,"real":0.2154,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.695（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 42.37 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 165 公里 = 510 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.64 节/列 = 5,430 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 798 座/列 = 40.72 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.8% = 18.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.695 = 4.02 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 3.13 亿元\n线路维护 = 165 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.30 亿元\n折旧 = 165 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.73 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 3.70 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.02 − 3.13 − 3.30 − 3.73 − 3.70 = -9.84 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R032","name":"银西高铁","km":618,"speed":250,"opened":"2020","region":"西北","via":"银川,吴忠,环县,庆阳,彬州,乾县,咸阳,西安北","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-36.014,"lo":-45.6278,"hi":-28.9805,"opProfit":-9.4215,"opLo":-15.5873,"opHi":-3.799,"perKm":-582.75,"opPerKm":-152.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.014,"rev":12.0995,"emuCost":5.0547,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":1.4392220421393842,"2021":29.889789303079418,"2022":26.262560777957862,"2023":30.67260940032415,"2024":32.60129659643436,"2025":33.656401944894654,"2026":38.869529983792546},"cost":{"train":9.161,"infra":12.36,"dep":13.3364,"int":13.2561},"sup":{"qJul":38.869529983792546,"qJan":37.382495948136146,"qYear":37.345,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 38.9 对、2026-01-31周六 37.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.3 对/日。","longRate":0.09158915876159698,"carsAvg":8.733,"seatsAvg":655.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率9%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.908410841238403},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.09158915876159698}],"trainKm":16847780,"carKm":147126835,"seatKm":11034512623},"dem":{"load":0.3771,"loadLo":0.2913,"loadHi":0.4882,"prior":0.4483,"pkm":4161012455,"kind":"der","text":"银西高铁现日均发送近2万（年化约730万），alpha取0.5。 换算本线口径约26%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.20）；与拟合曲线45%按精度合并（本线证据权重35%）。","evidence":[{"text":"银西高铁四周年","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6461841337584454,"real":0.2908,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.646（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 37.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 618 公里 = 1,685 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.73 节/列 = 14,713 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 655 座/列 = 110.35 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.7% = 41.61 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.646 = 12.10 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.0 元 = 9.16 亿元\n线路维护 = 618 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 12.36 亿元\n折旧 = 618 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 13.34 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 13.26 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.10 − 9.16 − 12.36 − 13.34 − 13.26 = -36.01 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R033","name":"银兰高铁银中段","km":212,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"西北","via":"银川,吴忠,中宁,中卫","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-11.7006,"lo":-15.0578,"hi":-9.0755,"opProfit":-2.5782,"opLo":-4.8165,"opHi":-0.5699,"perKm":-551.91,"opPerKm":-121.61,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.051,"rev":4.3595,"emuCost":1.4858,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":12.0,"2021":19.864734299516908,"2022":19.14975845410628,"2023":22.90096618357488,"2024":24.579710144927535,"2025":27.294685990338163,"2026":31.545893719806763},"cost":{"train":2.6977,"infra":4.24,"dep":4.575,"int":4.5474},"sup":{"qJul":31.545893719806763,"qJan":34.65217391304348,"qYear":32.476,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 31.5 对、2026-01-31周六 34.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 32.5 对/日。","longRate":0.07557825421133231,"carsAvg":8.605,"seatsAvg":645.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率8%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.9244217457886676},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.07557825421133231}],"trainKm":5025967,"carKm":43246570,"seatKm":3243492773},"dem":{"load":0.4376,"loadLo":0.328,"loadHi":0.5839,"prior":0.4376,"pkm":1419451062,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计44%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6825039864085962,"real":0.3071,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.683（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 32.48 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 212 公里 = 503 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.60 节/列 = 4,325 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 645 座/列 = 32.43 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.8% = 14.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.683 = 4.36 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.9 元 = 2.70 亿元\n线路维护 = 212 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.24 亿元\n折旧 = 212 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.57 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 4.55 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.36 − 2.70 − 4.24 − 4.57 − 4.55 = -11.70 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R034","name":"银兰高铁中兰段","km":219,"speed":250,"opened":"2022","region":"西北","via":"中卫,平川,靖远,白银,兰州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-13.6547,"lo":-17.0352,"hi":-11.3303,"opProfit":-3.7962,"opLo":-5.6134,"opHi":-2.289,"perKm":-623.5,"opPerKm":-173.34,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.002,"rev":2.0804,"emuCost":0.8195,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":9.5,"2024":8.0,"2025":12.0,"2026":18.0},"cost":{"train":1.4966,"infra":4.38,"dep":4.9441,"int":4.9144},"sup":{"qJul":18.0,"qJan":19.0,"qYear":18.142,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 18.0 对、2026-01-31周六 19.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 18.1 对/日。","longRate":0.027999999999999997,"carsAvg":8.224,"seatsAvg":616.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率3%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.972},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.027999999999999997}],"trainKm":2900441,"carKm":23853231,"seatKm":1788992302},"dem":{"load":0.3938,"loadLo":0.2886,"loadHi":0.5373,"prior":0.3938,"pkm":704503900,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计39%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6562081777267955,"real":0.2953,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.656（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 18.14 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 219 公里 = 290 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.22 节/列 = 2,385 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 617 座/列 = 17.89 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 39.4% = 7.05 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.656 = 2.08 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.6 元 = 1.50 亿元\n线路维护 = 219 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.38 亿元\n折旧 = 219 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.94 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 4.91 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.08 − 1.50 − 4.38 − 4.94 − 4.91 = -13.65 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R035","name":"包银高铁惠银段","km":97,"speed":250,"opened":"2024","region":"华北-西北","via":"惠农,石嘴山,银川","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.854,"lo":-7.2743,"hi":-4.8417,"opProfit":-1.7443,"opLo":-2.5721,"opHi":-1.0788,"perKm":-603.51,"opPerKm":-179.83,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":0.987,"emuCost":0.4372,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":5.0,"2026":19.5},"cost":{"train":0.7913,"infra":1.94,"dep":2.0611,"int":2.0486},"sup":{"qJul":19.5,"qJan":22.0,"qYear":20.366,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 19.5 对、2026-01-31周六 22.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.4 对/日。","longRate":0.10300000000000002,"carsAvg":8.824,"seatsAvg":661.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率10%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.897},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.10300000000000002}],"trainKm":1442134,"carKm":12725392,"seatKm":954404389},"dem":{"load":0.361,"loadLo":0.2602,"loadHi":0.501,"prior":0.361,"pkm":344572897,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计36%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6365514328664508,"real":0.2864,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.637（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.28 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 20.37 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 97 公里 = 144 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.82 节/列 = 1,273 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 662 座/列 = 9.54 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.1% = 3.45 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.637 = 0.99 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.1 元 = 0.79 亿元\n线路维护 = 97 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.94 亿元\n折旧 = 97 公里 × 1.28 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.06 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 2.05 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.99 − 0.79 − 1.94 − 2.06 − 2.05 = -5.85 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R036","name":"包银高铁包惠段","km":422,"speed":250,"opened":"2025","region":"华北-西北","via":"包头,乌前旗,五原,临河,磴口,乌海,惠农","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-19.3645,"lo":-25.3185,"hi":-14.7185,"opProfit":-4.6978,"opLo":-8.9271,"opHi":-0.4314,"perKm":-458.87,"opPerKm":-111.32,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.083,"rev":8.3999,"emuCost":2.5847,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":26.450236966824644},"cost":{"train":4.6578,"infra":8.44,"dep":7.3555,"int":7.3112},"sup":{"qJul":26.450236966824644,"qJan":27.950236966824644,"qYear":26.675,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 26.5 对、2026-01-31周六 28.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 26.7 对/日。","longRate":0.14438958072030106,"carsAvg":9.155,"seatsAvg":686.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率14%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.8556104192796989},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.14438958072030106}],"trainKm":8217495,"carKm":75232125,"seatKm":5642409412},"dem":{"load":0.3601,"loadLo":0.2594,"loadHi":0.4999,"prior":0.3601,"pkm":2031914489,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计36%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.6359996131074177,"real":0.4134,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.636（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.05 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 26.67 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 422 公里 = 822 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.16 节/列 = 7,523 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 687 座/列 = 56.42 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.0% = 20.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.636 = 8.40 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.4 元 = 4.66 亿元\n线路维护 = 422 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 8.44 亿元\n折旧 = 422 公里 × 1.05 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.36 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 7.31 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.40 − 4.66 − 8.44 − 7.36 − 7.31 = -19.36 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R037","name":"西延高铁","km":299,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"西北","via":"西安北,富平,铜川,黄陵,富县,延安","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-21.5856,"lo":-28.4471,"hi":-16.2952,"opProfit":-2.8804,"opLo":-7.3903,"opHi":1.2427,"perKm":-721.93,"opPerKm":-96.34,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.181,"rev":10.3778,"emuCost":2.3061,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":28.2996632996633},"cost":{"train":4.2883,"infra":8.97,"dep":9.3808,"int":9.3243},"sup":{"qJul":28.2996632996633,"qJan":25.2996632996633,"qYear":26.226,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 28.3 对、2026-01-31周六 25.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 26.2 对/日。","longRate":0.26523628792385484,"carsAvg":10.201,"seatsAvg":720.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率27%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7347637120761452},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.26523628792385484}],"trainKm":5724386,"carKm":58397103,"seatKm":4125981134},"dem":{"load":0.4541,"loadLo":0.3681,"loadHi":0.5601,"prior":0.4541,"pkm":1873578081,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.8000000000000002,"ratio":0.6923803120102011,"real":0.5539,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.692（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.89 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 26.23 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 299 公里 = 572 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.20 节/列 = 5,840 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 721 座/列 = 41.26 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.4% = 18.74 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.692 = 10.38 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.2 元 = 4.29 亿元\n线路维护 = 299 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.97 亿元\n折旧 = 299 公里 × 1.89 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 9.38 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 9.32 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.38 − 4.29 − 8.97 − 9.38 − 9.32 = -21.59 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R038","name":"西十高铁","km":257,"speed":350,"opened":"2026","region":"西北-华中","via":"西安东,商洛,山阳,郧西,十堰","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-18.7712,"lo":-24.7632,"hi":-14.4188,"opProfit":-2.8636,"opLo":-6.6895,"opHi":0.3213,"perKm":-730.4,"opPerKm":-111.43,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.128,"rev":8.6285,"emuCost":2.0265,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":29.223529411764705},"cost":{"train":3.7821,"infra":7.71,"dep":7.9778,"int":7.9297},"sup":{"qJul":29.223529411764705,"qJan":0.0,"qYear":27.908,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 29.2 对（1月尚未开通或极少），全年日均 = 0.95×7月 = 27.9 对/日，按开通后满12个月计。","longRate":0.2169822866344606,"carsAvg":9.801,"seatsAvg":690.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率22%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7830177133655394},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.2169822866344606}],"trainKm":5235908,"carKm":51316890,"seatKm":3615991112},"dem":{"load":0.4372,"loadLo":0.3521,"loadHi":0.5428,"prior":0.4372,"pkm":1580898016,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计44%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.8,"ratio":0.682243564016016,"real":0.5458,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.682（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.87 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约0年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 27.91 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 257 公里 = 524 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.80 节/列 = 5,132 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 691 座/列 = 36.16 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.7% = 15.81 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.682 = 8.63 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.9 元 = 3.78 亿元\n线路维护 = 257 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.71 亿元\n折旧 = 257 公里 × 1.87 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.98 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通0年）× 3.3% = 7.93 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.63 − 3.78 − 7.71 − 7.98 − 7.93 = -18.77 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"国铁：西十高铁开通","url":"https://www.china-railway.com.cn/xwzx/zhxw/202607/t20260701_157789.html","note":"2026-06-30开通257公里，非全年业绩。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R039","name":"西宝高铁","km":167,"speed":350,"opened":"2013","region":"西北","via":"西安北,咸阳,杨凌,宝鸡","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.6245,"lo":-11.2117,"hi":-2.9836,"opProfit":0.5615,"opLo":-3.3687,"opHi":4.1576,"perKm":-396.68,"opPerKm":33.62,"pProb":0.021,"pProbOp":0.542,"rev":13.4651,"emuCost":4.2787,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":47.5,"2018":56.0,"2019":61.0,"2020":55.5,"2021":71.0,"2022":62.0,"2023":68.0,"2024":74.0,"2025":85.5,"2026":88.5},"cost":{"train":7.8936,"infra":5.01,"dep":3.6039,"int":3.5821},"sup":{"qJul":88.5,"qJan":74.0,"qYear":79.444,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 88.5 对、2026-01-31周六 74.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 79.4 对/日。","longRate":0.384,"carsAvg":11.187,"seatsAvg":795.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率38%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.616},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.384}],"trainKm":9684988,"carKm":108347893,"seatKm":7699565112},"dem":{"load":0.6041,"loadLo":0.5188,"loadHi":0.7034,"prior":0.6041,"pkm":4651434835,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7823848145196302,"real":0.2895,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.782（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 79.44 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 167 公里 = 968 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.19 节/列 = 10,835 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 795 座/列 = 77.00 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.4% = 46.51 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.782 = 13.47 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.1 元 = 7.89 亿元\n线路维护 = 167 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.01 亿元\n折旧 = 167 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.60 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 3.58 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.47 − 7.89 − 5.01 − 3.60 − 3.58 = -6.62 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R040","name":"宝兰高铁","km":401,"speed":250,"opened":"2017","region":"西北","via":"宝鸡,天水,通渭,定西,兰州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-16.5155,"lo":-27.1796,"hi":-7.0062,"opProfit":4.8542,"opLo":-4.409,"opHi":13.7666,"perKm":-411.86,"opPerKm":121.05,"pProb":0.021,"pProbOp":0.735,"rev":26.6106,"emuCost":7.7952,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":35.53740648379053,"2018":45.68952618453865,"2019":54.52369077306733,"2020":49.69576059850374,"2021":58.87032418952619,"2022":48.69576059850374,"2023":56.35411471321696,"2024":58.68329177057357,"2025":75.34538653366583,"2026":75.50623441396509},"cost":{"train":13.7364,"infra":8.02,"dep":10.7171,"int":10.6526},"sup":{"qJul":75.50623441396509,"qJan":65.17456359102245,"qYear":68.804,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 75.5 对、2026-01-31周六 65.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 68.8 对/日。","longRate":0.4081453860889095,"carsAvg":11.265,"seatsAvg":844.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率41%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5918546139110905},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4081453860889095}],"trainKm":20141125,"carKm":226893060,"seatKm":17016979534},"dem":{"load":0.4955,"loadLo":0.3826,"loadHi":0.6418,"prior":0.4955,"pkm":8432218731,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44000000000000006,"ratio":0.7172327307129639,"real":0.3156,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.717（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.61 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 68.80 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 401 公里 = 2,014 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.27 节/列 = 22,689 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 845 座/列 = 170.17 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.6% = 84.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.717 = 26.61 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.1 元 = 13.74 亿元\n线路维护 = 401 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 8.02 亿元\n折旧 = 401 公里 × 1.61 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 10.72 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 10.65 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 26.61 − 13.74 − 8.02 − 10.72 − 10.65 = -16.52 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R041","name":"兰新高铁","km":1776,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"西北","via":"兰州,民和,西宁,门源,民乐,张掖,酒泉,嘉峪关,玉门,柳园,哈密,鄯善,吐鲁番,乌鲁木齐","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-74.8438,"lo":-94.9652,"hi":-61.1604,"opProfit":-27.8153,"opLo":-42.5082,"opHi":-17.1978,"perKm":-421.42,"opPerKm":-156.62,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.002,"rev":20.3362,"emuCost":7.1481,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":12.956047032474803,"2018":11.183370660694289,"2019":9.425811870100784,"2020":6.628779395296752,"2021":7.57558790593505,"2022":3.473404255319149,"2023":10.800951847704367,"2024":14.327827547592385,"2025":14.961926091825308,"2026":16.38969764837626},"cost":{"train":12.6315,"infra":35.52,"dep":23.5853,"int":23.4432},"sup":{"qJul":16.38969764837626,"qJan":13.586506159014558,"qYear":14.653,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 16.4 对、2026-01-31周六 13.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 14.7 对/日。","longRate":0.3689658547417327,"carsAvg":10.952,"seatsAvg":821.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率37%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6310341452582673},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.3689658547417327}],"trainKm":18997710,"carKm":208057734,"seatKm":15604330071},"dem":{"load":0.5573,"loadLo":0.4864,"loadHi":0.6386,"prior":0.3781,"pkm":8696715185,"kind":"der","text":"兰新高铁2023年发送2128万人次（下界，2026年按+10%）；1,776公里线路以短途为主，平均乘距约280公里，alpha取0.16。 换算本线口径至少约51%，高于拟合曲线38%，按不低于下界取56%。","evidence":[{"text":"兰新高铁2023年客流","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31000000000000005,"ratio":0.7543141567806356,"real":0.2338,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.754（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.80 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 14.65 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 1776 公里 = 1,900 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.95 节/列 = 20,806 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 821 座/列 = 156.04 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 55.7% = 86.97 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.754 = 20.34 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.9 元 = 12.63 亿元\n线路维护 = 1776 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 35.52 亿元\n折旧 = 1776 公里 × 0.80 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 23.59 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 23.44 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 20.34 − 12.63 − 35.52 − 23.59 − 23.44 = -74.84 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R042","name":"兰张高铁兰武段","km":194,"speed":250,"opened":"2024","region":"西北","via":"兰州,兰州新区,永登,天祝,古浪,武威","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-11.6454,"lo":-14.424,"hi":-9.6975,"opProfit":-3.6186,"opLo":-5.2686,"opHi":-2.3339,"perKm":-600.28,"opPerKm":-186.53,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.5979,"emuCost":0.736,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":10.0,"2025":17.0,"2026":20.0},"cost":{"train":1.3365,"infra":3.88,"dep":4.0255,"int":4.0012},"sup":{"qJul":20.0,"qJan":16.0,"qYear":17.59,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 20.0 对、2026-01-31周六 16.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 17.6 对/日。","longRate":0.075,"carsAvg":8.6,"seatsAvg":645.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率8%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.925},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.075}],"trainKm":2491096,"carKm":21423424,"seatKm":1606756791},"dem":{"load":0.3506,"loadLo":0.2513,"loadHi":0.4891,"prior":0.3506,"pkm":563355637,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6303013945729595,"real":0.2836,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.630（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 17.59 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 194 公里 = 249 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.60 节/列 = 2,142 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 645 座/列 = 16.07 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.1% = 5.63 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.630 = 1.60 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.9 元 = 1.34 亿元\n线路维护 = 194 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.88 亿元\n折旧 = 194 公里 × 1.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.03 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 4.00 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.60 − 1.34 − 3.88 − 4.03 − 4.00 = -11.65 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R043","name":"兰州中川城际","km":61,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"西北","via":"兰州,兰州新区,中川机场","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-5.5239,"lo":-6.8826,"hi":-4.5727,"opProfit":-0.9809,"opLo":-1.6021,"opHi":-0.4535,"perKm":-905.56,"opPerKm":-160.81,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.012,"rev":1.1433,"emuCost":0.5225,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":11.0,"2018":12.0,"2019":18.0,"2020":19.0,"2021":19.0,"2022":18.0,"2023":27.5,"2024":26.0,"2025":35.80327868852459,"2026":43.24590163934426},"cost":{"train":0.9042,"infra":1.22,"dep":2.2784,"int":2.2646},"sup":{"qJul":43.24590163934426,"qJan":40.47540983606557,"qYear":40.989,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 43.2 对、2026-01-31周六 40.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 41.0 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8.333,"seatsAvg":640.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：C601–C620共20列为CR200J（720座级，1动8拖），其余40列为8节跨线动车。","mix":[{"cars":9,"seats":720,"share":0.333,"label":"CR200J短编组"},{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.667,"label":"8节跨线动车"}],"trainKm":1825232,"carKm":15209656,"seatKm":1168075327},"dem":{"load":0.4555,"loadLo":0.3445,"loadHi":0.6021,"prior":0.4555,"pkm":532027137,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6932085641507957,"real":0.2149,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.693（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 40.99 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 61 公里 = 183 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.33 节/列 = 1,521 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 640 座/列 = 11.68 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.5% = 5.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.693 = 1.14 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.7 元 = 0.90 亿元\n线路维护 = 61 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.22 亿元\n折旧 = 61 公里 × 2.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.28 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 2.26 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.14 − 0.90 − 1.22 − 2.28 − 2.26 = -5.52 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R044","name":"中川机场环线","km":14.2,"speed":160,"opened":"2025","region":"西北","via":"兰州新区,中川机场,兰州新区","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-0.9245,"lo":-1.1297,"hi":-0.7814,"opProfit":-0.3135,"opLo":-0.4227,"opHi":-0.2246,"perKm":-651.07,"opPerKm":-220.77,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0558,"emuCost":0.0481,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":19.333333333333332,"2026":21.833333333333332},"cost":{"train":0.0853,"infra":0.284,"dep":0.3064,"int":0.3046},"sup":{"qJul":21.833333333333332,"qJan":17.333333333333332,"qYear":19.135,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 21.8 对、2026-01-31周六 17.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 19.1 对/日。","longRate":0.02266412213740458,"carsAvg":8.181,"seatsAvg":569.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"城际车型按8节557座/列（CRH6A/6F类），重联按2列；知乎源图重联率2%。未查到逐线4节车份额时沿用此设定。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.9773358778625955},{"cars":16,"seats":1114,"share":0.02266412213740458}],"trainKm":198358,"carKm":1622827,"seatKm":112989306},"dem":{"load":0.2495,"loadLo":0.1542,"loadHi":0.4035,"prior":0.2495,"pkm":28186476,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计25%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.43957419511007806,"real":0.1978,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.440（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 19.14 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 14.2 公里 = 20 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.18 节/列 = 162 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 570 座/列 = 1.13 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 24.9% = 0.28 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.440 = 0.06 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 13.6 元 = 0.09 亿元\n线路维护 = 14.2 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.28 亿元\n折旧 = 14.2 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.31 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 0.30 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.06 − 0.09 − 0.28 − 0.31 − 0.30 = -0.92 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"兰州新区政府：中川机场环线一周年","url":"https://www.lzxq.gov.cn/system/2026/03/23/031341573.shtml","note":"初期19对、峰值31.5对，服务旅客510万+；服务人数不直接当独立乘客人数。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R045","name":"哈齐高铁","km":281,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"东北","via":"哈尔滨,肇东,安达,大庆,齐齐哈尔","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-14.6378,"lo":-19.0818,"hi":-11.2194,"opProfit":-3.8486,"opLo":-7.0882,"opHi":-0.8786,"perKm":-520.92,"opPerKm":-136.96,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.052,"rev":6.7765,"emuCost":2.7781,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":32.0,"2018":36.0,"2019":32.04659498207885,"2020":20.046594982078854,"2021":31.827956989247312,"2022":30.0,"2023":38.0,"2024":44.10931899641577,"2025":44.74193548387097,"2026":47.655913978494624},"cost":{"train":5.0051,"infra":5.62,"dep":5.4109,"int":5.3783},"sup":{"qJul":47.655913978494624,"qJan":40.21863799283154,"qYear":42.966,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 47.7 对、2026-01-31周六 40.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 43.0 对/日。","longRate":0.14685348977135979,"carsAvg":9.175,"seatsAvg":688.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率15%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.8531465102286402},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.14685348977135979}],"trainKm":8813526,"carKm":80862587,"seatKm":6064694002},"dem":{"load":0.4591,"loadLo":0.3479,"loadHi":0.6058,"prior":0.4591,"pkm":2784293211,"kind":"curve","text":"哈齐高铁10年累计运送超1亿（年均约1000万），alpha取0.6。 为多年累计÷年数（含疫情年），只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约32%，拟合曲线46%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"哈齐高铁十周年","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.35,"ratio":0.6953835686443666,"real":0.2434,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.35 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.695（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.16 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 42.97 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 281 公里 = 881 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.17 节/列 = 8,086 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 688 座/列 = 60.65 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.9% = 27.84 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.350 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.695 = 6.78 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.4 元 = 5.01 亿元\n线路维护 = 281 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.62 亿元\n折旧 = 281 公里 × 1.16 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.41 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 5.38 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.78 − 5.01 − 5.62 − 5.41 − 5.38 = -14.64 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R046","name":"哈牡高铁","km":293,"speed":250,"opened":"2018","region":"东北","via":"哈尔滨,阿城,尚志,亚布力,牡丹江","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-16.1234,"lo":-20.9084,"hi":-12.5503,"opProfit":-4.0006,"opLo":-7.2089,"opHi":-1.07,"perKm":-550.29,"opPerKm":-136.54,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.039,"rev":6.5537,"emuCost":2.6054,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":20.5,"2020":9.0,"2021":21.0,"2022":23.0,"2023":35.5,"2024":35.5,"2025":38.0,"2026":41.0},"cost":{"train":4.6943,"infra":5.86,"dep":6.0797,"int":6.0431},"sup":{"qJul":41.0,"qJan":38.0,"qYear":38.672,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 41.0 对、2026-01-31周六 38.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.7 对/日。","longRate":0.146,"carsAvg":9.168,"seatsAvg":687.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率15%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.854},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.146}],"trainKm":8271661,"carKm":75834588,"seatKm":5687594121},"dem":{"load":0.451,"loadLo":0.3404,"loadHi":0.5976,"prior":0.451,"pkm":2565118169,"kind":"curve","text":"哈牡高铁第4–5年约510万人次/年，alpha取0.6。 为多年累计÷年数（含疫情年），只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约17%，拟合曲线45%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"哈牡高铁客流","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6905262639768791,"real":0.2555,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.691（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.67 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 293 公里 = 827 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.17 节/列 = 7,583 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 688 座/列 = 56.88 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.1% = 25.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.691 = 6.55 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.4 元 = 4.69 亿元\n线路维护 = 293 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.86 亿元\n折旧 = 293 公里 × 1.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.08 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 6.04 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.55 − 4.69 − 5.86 − 6.08 − 6.04 = -16.12 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈牡三周年运营信息","url":"https://hljswdx.org.cn/info/1098/10230.htm","note":"2021图定19.5对，是历史而非现期数据。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R047","name":"牡佳高铁","km":372,"speed":250,"opened":"2021","region":"东北","via":"牡丹江,林口,鸡西,七台河,桦南,双鸭山,佳木斯","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-19.4848,"lo":-24.1993,"hi":-16.1766,"opProfit":-6.6791,"opLo":-9.6447,"opHi":-4.3473,"perKm":-523.79,"opPerKm":-179.55,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":3.0554,"emuCost":1.2805,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":13.03763440860215,"2023":15.11021505376344,"2024":14.856182795698924,"2025":14.081989247311828,"2026":15.081989247311828},"cost":{"train":2.2945,"infra":7.44,"dep":6.4222,"int":6.3835},"sup":{"qJul":15.081989247311828,"qJan":14.081989247311828,"qYear":14.278,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 15.1 对、2026-01-31周六 14.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 14.3 对/日。","longRate":0.20156037786293554,"carsAvg":9.612,"seatsAvg":720.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率20%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.7984396221370644},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.20156037786293554}],"trainKm":3877293,"carKm":37270411,"seatKm":2795280841},"dem":{"load":0.3762,"loadLo":0.2732,"loadHi":0.518,"prior":0.3762,"pkm":1051612175,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6456556589848811,"real":0.2905,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.646（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.04 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 14.28 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 372 公里 = 388 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.61 节/列 = 3,727 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 721 座/列 = 27.95 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.6% = 10.52 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.646 = 3.06 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.8 元 = 2.29 亿元\n线路维护 = 372 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.44 亿元\n折旧 = 372 公里 × 1.04 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.42 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 6.38 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.06 − 2.29 − 7.44 − 6.42 − 6.38 = -19.48 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"牡佳2022年初期开行信息","url":"https://news.cctv.com/2022/03/15/ARTIwFZvAIg5jqFWCAGC7SQW220315.shtml","note":"24对含高峰，不能直接当现期平均。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R048","name":"哈佳铁路","km":343,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"东北","via":"哈尔滨,宾县,方正,依兰,佳木斯","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-15.9737,"lo":-20.9471,"hi":-11.984,"opProfit":-4.5068,"opLo":-8.1045,"opHi":-1.141,"perKm":-465.7,"opPerKm":-131.39,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.044,"rev":7.45,"emuCost":2.9888,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":27.0,"2020":14.5,"2021":25.0,"2022":24.0,"2023":35.5,"2024":35.5,"2025":36.0,"2026":39.0},"cost":{"train":5.0968,"infra":6.86,"dep":5.7507,"int":5.7161},"sup":{"qJul":39.0,"qJan":37.0,"qYear":37.215,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 39.0 对、2026-01-31周六 37.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.2 对/日。","longRate":0.16699999999999998,"carsAvg":9.336,"seatsAvg":700.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率17%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.833},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.16699999999999998}],"trainKm":9318264,"carKm":86995311,"seatKm":6524648348},"dem":{"load":0.4481,"loadLo":0.3376,"loadHi":0.5946,"prior":0.4481,"pkm":2923394039,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6887573926265246,"real":0.2548,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.689（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.01 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 37.21 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 343 公里 = 932 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.34 节/列 = 8,700 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 700 座/列 = 65.25 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.8% = 29.23 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.689 = 7.45 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.5 元 = 5.10 亿元\n线路维护 = 343 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.86 亿元\n折旧 = 343 公里 × 1.01 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.75 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 5.72 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 7.45 − 5.10 − 6.86 − 5.75 − 5.72 = -15.97 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈佳五周年","url":"https://www.news.cn/photo/2023-09/29/c_1129893397_4.htm","note":"五年2700万人次不是单年流量。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R049","name":"牡绥铁路新线","km":138.8,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"东北","via":"牡丹江,穆棱,绥芬河","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-6.2998,"lo":-7.7739,"hi":-5.296,"opProfit":-2.8082,"opLo":-3.8747,"opHi":-2.0297,"perKm":-453.88,"opPerKm":-202.32,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2528,"emuCost":0.1638,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":10.0,"2020":5.0,"2021":7.0,"2022":6.0,"2023":6.0,"2024":7.0,"2025":6.0,"2026":6.0},"cost":{"train":0.285,"infra":2.776,"dep":1.7511,"int":1.7406},"sup":{"qJul":6.0,"qJan":6.0,"qYear":5.88,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 6.0 对、2026-01-31周六 6.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 5.9 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":600.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":1.0},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":595785,"carKm":4766281,"seatKm":357471072},"dem":{"load":0.3141,"loadLo":0.221,"loadHi":0.4465,"prior":0.3141,"pkm":112296915,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计31%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6084194011030402,"real":0.2251,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.608（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.76 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 5.88 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 138.8 公里 = 60 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 477 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 600 座/列 = 3.57 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 31.4% = 1.12 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.608 = 0.25 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 138.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.78 亿元\n折旧 = 138.8 公里 × 0.76 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.75 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 1.74 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.25 − 0.28 − 2.78 − 1.75 − 1.74 = -6.30 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R050","name":"长吉城际","km":111,"speed":250,"opened":"2010","region":"东北","via":"长春,龙嘉,九台,吉林","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-4.1294,"lo":-6.3203,"hi":-2.2422,"opProfit":-0.8595,"opLo":-2.813,"opHi":1.0047,"perKm":-372.02,"opPerKm":-77.43,"pProb":0.005,"pProbOp":0.263,"rev":5.042,"emuCost":2.0651,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":63.0,"2018":64.5,"2019":68.0,"2020":45.5,"2021":60.0,"2022":48.0,"2023":76.0,"2024":72.0,"2025":80.5,"2026":79.0},"cost":{"train":3.6814,"infra":2.22,"dep":1.6399,"int":1.63},"sup":{"qJul":79.0,"qJan":71.5,"qYear":73.651,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 79.0 对、2026-01-31周六 71.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 73.7 对/日。","longRate":0.259,"carsAvg":10.072,"seatsAvg":755.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率26%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.741},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.259}],"trainKm":5967961,"carKm":60109301,"seatKm":4508197579},"dem":{"load":0.5008,"loadLo":0.3877,"loadHi":0.6468,"prior":0.5008,"pkm":2257687830,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.7203992876449377,"real":0.2233,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.720（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.89 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 73.65 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 111 公里 = 597 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.07 节/列 = 6,011 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 755 座/列 = 45.08 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.1% = 22.58 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.720 = 5.04 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.1 元 = 3.68 亿元\n线路维护 = 111 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.22 亿元\n折旧 = 111 公里 × 0.89 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.64 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 1.63 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.04 − 3.68 − 2.22 − 1.64 − 1.63 = -4.13 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"吉林省：长珲高铁十年","url":"https://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/gzlfz/gzdt/202510/t20251014_3504359.html","note":"长吉、吉珲共用通道口径，不能重复客公里。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R051","name":"吉珲客专","km":360,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"东北","via":"吉林,蛟河,敦化,安图,延吉,图们,珲春","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-20.3187,"lo":-25.592,"hi":-16.5015,"opProfit":-6.4961,"opLo":-10.0442,"opHi":-3.4895,"perKm":-564.41,"opPerKm":-180.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.003,"rev":5.8922,"emuCost":2.8945,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":21.225,"2018":23.11111111111111,"2019":23.448611111111113,"2020":18.291666666666668,"2021":21.544444444444444,"2022":16.741666666666667,"2023":31.34861111111111,"2024":31.04722222222222,"2025":35.68611111111111,"2026":34.602777777777774},"cost":{"train":5.1883,"infra":7.2,"dep":6.9322,"int":6.8904},"sup":{"qJul":34.602777777777774,"qJan":33.675,"qYear":33.445,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 34.6 对、2026-01-31周六 33.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 33.4 对/日。","longRate":0.19818086216585054,"carsAvg":9.585,"seatsAvg":718.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率20%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.8018191378341495},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.19818086216585054}],"trainKm":8789218,"carKm":84248585,"seatKm":6318643860},"dem":{"load":0.4399,"loadLo":0.3301,"loadHi":0.5862,"prior":0.4399,"pkm":2779413988,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计44%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6838506450262472,"real":0.212,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.684（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.16 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 33.44 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 360 公里 = 879 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.59 节/列 = 8,425 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 719 座/列 = 63.19 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.0% = 27.79 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.684 = 5.89 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.7 元 = 5.19 亿元\n线路维护 = 360 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.20 亿元\n折旧 = 360 公里 × 1.16 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.93 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 6.89 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.89 − 5.19 − 7.20 − 6.93 − 6.89 = -20.32 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"吉林省：长珲高铁十年","url":"https://www.jl.gov.cn/szfzt/gzlfz/gzdt/202510/t20251014_3504359.html","note":"长吉、吉珲共用通道口径，不能重复客公里。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R052","name":"敦白高铁","km":99,"speed":250,"opened":"2021","region":"东北","via":"敦化,长白山","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.5846,"lo":-6.9589,"hi":-4.6333,"opProfit":-1.7178,"opLo":-2.5778,"opHi":-1.0681,"perKm":-564.1,"opPerKm":-173.52,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.9461,"emuCost":0.3782,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":5.0,"2023":11.0,"2024":13.0,"2025":14.0,"2026":18.0},"cost":{"train":0.684,"infra":1.98,"dep":1.9392,"int":1.9275},"sup":{"qJul":18.0,"qJan":17.0,"qYear":17.137,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 18.0 对、2026-01-31周六 17.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 17.1 对/日。","longRate":0.111,"carsAvg":8.888,"seatsAvg":666.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率11%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.889},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.111}],"trainKm":1238527,"carKm":11008029,"seatKm":825602182},"dem":{"load":0.3896,"loadLo":0.2849,"loadHi":0.5327,"prior":0.3896,"pkm":321644581,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计39%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6536815894829604,"real":0.2942,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.654（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.18 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 17.14 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 99 公里 = 124 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.89 节/列 = 1,101 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 667 座/列 = 8.26 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 39.0% = 3.22 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.654 = 0.95 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.1 元 = 0.68 亿元\n线路维护 = 99 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.98 亿元\n折旧 = 99 公里 × 1.18 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.94 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 1.93 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.95 − 0.68 − 1.98 − 1.94 − 1.93 = -5.58 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R053","name":"沈白高铁","km":430,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"东北","via":"沈阳,抚顺,新宾,通化,白山,抚松,长白山","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-29.3237,"lo":-38.1774,"hi":-22.8846,"opProfit":-5.4122,"opLo":-11.0845,"opHi":-0.4412,"perKm":-681.95,"opPerKm":-125.87,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.08,"rev":12.0216,"emuCost":2.4217,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":21.345348837209304},"cost":{"train":4.5338,"infra":12.9,"dep":11.9918,"int":11.9196},"sup":{"qJul":21.345348837209304,"qJan":20.72325581395349,"qYear":20.606,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 21.3 对、2026-01-31周六 20.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.6 对/日。","longRate":0.17842980879228634,"carsAvg":9.481,"seatsAvg":666.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率18%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.8215701912077137},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.17842980879228634}],"trainKm":6468173,"carKm":61324539,"seatKm":4311157951},"dem":{"load":0.4887,"loadLo":0.4113,"loadHi":0.5808,"prior":0.4356,"pkm":2107066568,"kind":"der","text":"沈白高铁开通首年（2025-09至2026-09）约1150万人次；430公里线路中沈阳—通化/白山段占多数，alpha取0.5。 换算本线口径约66%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线44%按精度合并（本线证据权重23%）。","evidence":[{"text":"沈白高铁开通一周年","url":"https://www.nsy.gov.cn/ywdt/ssyw/202609/t20260924_5094790.html"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.8,"ratio":0.7131707521632515,"real":0.5705,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.713（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.68 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 20.61 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 430 公里 = 647 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.48 节/列 = 6,132 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 667 座/列 = 43.11 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.9% = 21.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.713 = 12.02 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 4.53 亿元\n线路维护 = 430 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 12.90 亿元\n折旧 = 430 公里 × 1.68 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 11.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 11.92 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.02 − 4.53 − 12.90 − 11.99 − 11.92 = -29.32 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R054","name":"沈丹客专","km":208,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"东北","via":"沈阳,本溪,凤城,丹东","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.0317,"lo":-13.0813,"hi":-7.8938,"opProfit":-1.8388,"opLo":-3.935,"opHi":-0.2265,"perKm":-482.29,"opPerKm":-88.4,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.071,"rev":5.2006,"emuCost":1.6131,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":37.29326923076923,"2018":35.29326923076923,"2019":30.29326923076923,"2020":25.233173076923077,"2021":31.5,"2022":2.0528846153846154,"2023":33.14663461538461,"2024":34.14663461538461,"2025":33.43990384615385,"2026":35.43990384615385},"cost":{"train":2.8794,"infra":4.16,"dep":4.1088,"int":4.0841},"sup":{"qJul":35.43990384615385,"qJan":28.146634615384617,"qYear":31.066,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 35.4 对、2026-01-31周六 28.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 31.1 对/日。","longRate":0.24420816658753305,"carsAvg":9.954,"seatsAvg":746.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率24%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.7557918334124669},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.24420816658753305}],"trainKm":4717098,"carKm":46952411,"seatKm":3521430795},"dem":{"load":0.6074,"loadLo":0.5383,"loadHi":0.6853,"prior":0.4342,"pkm":2138862366,"kind":"der","text":"沈丹高铁10年累计发送1.2亿人次（年均1200万，日均3.4万），alpha取0.6。 为多年累计÷年数（含疫情年），只作下界。 换算本线口径至少约56%，高于拟合曲线43%，按不低于下界取61%。","evidence":[{"text":"沈丹高铁十周年","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.7843453417888855,"real":0.2431,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.784（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.19 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 31.07 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 208 公里 = 472 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.95 节/列 = 4,695 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 747 座/列 = 35.21 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.7% = 21.39 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.784 = 5.20 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.0 元 = 2.88 亿元\n线路维护 = 208 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.16 亿元\n折旧 = 208 公里 × 1.19 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.11 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.08 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.20 − 2.88 − 4.16 − 4.11 − 4.08 = -10.03 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沈丹高铁十周年","url":"https://www.news.cn/local/20250902/86ff4150ceb740ebaa83c55c51eb5317/c.html","note":"十年累计1.2亿人次。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R055","name":"丹大快速铁路","km":292,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"东北","via":"丹东,东港,庄河,皮口,大连","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.305,"lo":-18.8707,"hi":-12.8773,"opProfit":-5.7365,"opLo":-8.0129,"opHi":-3.9803,"perKm":-524.14,"opPerKm":-196.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.4619,"emuCost":0.807,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":13.498293515358363,"2018":8.627986348122867,"2019":12.0,"2020":8.563139931740615,"2021":11.313993174061434,"2022":1.7440273037542662,"2023":11.313993174061434,"2024":11.815699658703071,"2025":10.313993174061434,"2026":12.313993174061434},"cost":{"train":1.3584,"infra":5.84,"dep":4.7987,"int":4.7698},"sup":{"qJul":12.313993174061434,"qJan":9.313993174061434,"qYear":10.56,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 12.3 对、2026-01-31周六 9.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 10.6 对/日。","longRate":0.30432372505543237,"carsAvg":10.435,"seatsAvg":782.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率30%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6956762749445676},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.30432372505543237}],"trainKm":2251015,"carKm":23488419,"seatKm":1761631416},"dem":{"load":0.3545,"loadLo":0.2546,"loadHi":0.4936,"prior":0.3545,"pkm":624539469,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6326451762029075,"real":0.2341,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.633（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.99 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.56 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 292 公里 = 225 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.43 节/列 = 2,349 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 783 座/列 = 17.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.5% = 6.25 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.633 = 1.46 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 1.36 亿元\n线路维护 = 292 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.84 亿元\n折旧 = 292 公里 × 0.99 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.80 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.77 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.46 − 1.36 − 5.84 − 4.80 − 4.77 = -15.31 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"丹大铁路十周年","url":"https://ln.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/19/WS69452ecba310942cc49979ed.html","note":"十年累计近4000万人次。"},{"title":"国铁／铁科院：丹大铁路十周年","url":"https://www.rails.cn/content.php?contentid=68020&page=19","note":"十年累计近7.1万列、近4000万人；历史日均19列，不能作当前全年实开。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R056","name":"盘营客专","km":89.9,"speed":350,"opened":"2013","region":"东北","via":"盘锦,营口","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-4.456,"lo":-6.2034,"hi":-3.0902,"opProfit":-0.8852,"opLo":-2.2683,"opHi":0.3411,"perKm":-495.66,"opPerKm":-98.46,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.176,"rev":3.4486,"emuCost":0.8876,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":20.48314606741573,"2018":19.98314606741573,"2019":20.48314606741573,"2020":8.48314606741573,"2021":17.224719101123597,"2022":21.6123595505618,"2023":28.48314606741573,"2024":30.59550561797753,"2025":30.46629213483146,"2026":31.96629213483146},"cost":{"train":1.6368,"infra":2.697,"dep":1.7908,"int":1.78},"sup":{"qJul":31.96629213483146,"qJan":30.224719101123597,"qYear":30.452,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 32.0 对、2026-01-31周六 30.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 30.5 对/日。","longRate":0.3911912126537785,"carsAvg":11.247,"seatsAvg":799.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率39%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6088087873462216},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.3911912126537785}],"trainKm":1998462,"carKm":22476476,"seatKm":1597759373},"dem":{"load":0.5313,"loadLo":0.4437,"loadHi":0.6362,"prior":0.5313,"pkm":848839446,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计53%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7386808129855199,"real":0.4063,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.739（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.20 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 30.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 89.9 公里 = 200 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.25 节/列 = 2,248 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 799 座/列 = 15.98 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.1% = 8.49 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.739 = 3.45 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.1 元 = 1.64 亿元\n线路维护 = 89.9 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 2.70 亿元\n折旧 = 89.9 公里 × 1.20 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.79 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.78 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.45 − 1.64 − 2.70 − 1.79 − 1.78 = -4.46 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R057","name":"朝凌高铁","km":107,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"东北","via":"朝阳,凌海,锦州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.4404,"lo":-8.1855,"hi":-5.2494,"opProfit":-2.5091,"opLo":-3.8352,"opHi":-1.4879,"perKm":-601.9,"opPerKm":-234.49,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.6089,"emuCost":0.4954,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":10.0,"2023":13.0,"2024":13.0,"2025":13.0,"2026":14.0},"cost":{"train":0.9079,"infra":3.21,"dep":1.9716,"int":1.9597},"sup":{"qJul":14.0,"qJan":13.0,"qYear":13.217,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 14.0 对、2026-01-31周六 13.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 13.2 对/日。","longRate":0.5,"carsAvg":12.15,"seatsAvg":867.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5}],"trainKm":1032419,"carKm":12543890,"seatKm":895623417},"dem":{"load":0.4666,"loadLo":0.3801,"loadHi":0.5729,"prior":0.4666,"pkm":417937994,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计47%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.6999107171693669,"real":0.385,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.700（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.11 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.22 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 107 公里 = 103 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.15 节/列 = 1,254 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 868 座/列 = 8.96 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.7% = 4.18 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.700 = 1.61 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 0.91 亿元\n线路维护 = 107 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.21 亿元\n折旧 = 107 公里 × 1.11 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.97 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 1.96 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.61 − 0.91 − 3.21 − 1.97 − 1.96 = -6.44 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R058","name":"喀赤高铁","km":157,"speed":250,"opened":"2020","region":"东北","via":"喀左,宁城,赤峰","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.0399,"lo":-10.2206,"hi":-6.4649,"opProfit":-2.4274,"opLo":-3.9125,"opHi":-1.1673,"perKm":-512.09,"opPerKm":-154.61,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.01,"rev":2.2413,"emuCost":0.8685,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":6.0,"2021":16.0,"2022":15.0,"2023":18.0,"2024":19.0,"2025":18.0,"2026":20.0},"cost":{"train":1.5287,"infra":3.14,"dep":2.8147,"int":2.7977},"sup":{"qJul":20.0,"qJan":19.5,"qYear":19.349,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 20.0 对、2026-01-31周六 19.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 19.3 对/日。","longRate":0.425,"carsAvg":11.4,"seatsAvg":855.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率42%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.575},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.425}],"trainKm":2217560,"carKm":25280187,"seatKm":1896014003},"dem":{"load":0.3986,"loadLo":0.2928,"loadHi":0.5425,"prior":0.3986,"pkm":755704366,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6590734763857279,"real":0.2966,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.659（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.08 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 19.35 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 157 公里 = 222 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.40 节/列 = 2,528 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 855 座/列 = 18.96 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 39.9% = 7.56 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.659 = 2.24 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.2 元 = 1.53 亿元\n线路维护 = 157 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.14 亿元\n折旧 = 157 公里 × 1.08 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.81 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 2.80 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.24 − 1.53 − 3.14 − 2.81 − 2.80 = -8.04 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R059","name":"新通高铁","km":197,"speed":250,"opened":"2018","region":"东北","via":"新民,彰武,通辽","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.632,"lo":-11.9585,"hi":-8.0367,"opProfit":-3.8286,"opLo":-5.4285,"opHi":-2.6273,"perKm":-488.94,"opPerKm":-194.35,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.27,"emuCost":0.6371,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":10.0,"2020":6.0,"2021":10.0,"2022":8.0,"2023":13.5,"2024":15.0,"2025":15.0,"2026":16.0},"cost":{"train":1.1586,"infra":3.94,"dep":2.9105,"int":2.8929},"sup":{"qJul":16.0,"qJan":15.0,"qYear":15.177,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 16.0 对、2026-01-31周六 15.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 15.2 对/日。","longRate":0.062,"carsAvg":8.496,"seatsAvg":637.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率6%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.938},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.062}],"trainKm":2182676,"carKm":18544018,"seatKm":1390801322},"dem":{"load":0.3807,"loadLo":0.2771,"loadHi":0.5229,"prior":0.3807,"pkm":529433205,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.6483301080820899,"real":0.2399,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.648（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.89 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 15.18 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 197 公里 = 218 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.50 节/列 = 1,854 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 637 座/列 = 13.91 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.1% = 5.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.648 = 1.27 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.8 元 = 1.16 亿元\n线路维护 = 197 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.94 亿元\n折旧 = 197 公里 × 0.89 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.91 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 2.89 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.27 − 1.16 − 3.94 − 2.91 − 2.89 = -9.63 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R060","name":"长白快速铁路","km":328,"speed":200,"opened":"2017","region":"东北","via":"长春,松原,白城","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-20.0828,"lo":-24.8626,"hi":-16.8671,"opProfit":-5.9689,"opLo":-8.5881,"opHi":-4.0177,"perKm":-612.28,"opPerKm":-181.98,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":2.2309,"emuCost":0.9543,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":6.900900900900901,"2019":10.702702702702704,"2020":11.378378378378379,"2021":10.378378378378379,"2022":12.153153153153154,"2023":10.576576576576576,"2024":12.252252252252251,"2025":12.801801801801801,"2026":13.702702702702704},"cost":{"train":1.6398,"infra":6.56,"dep":7.0782,"int":7.0356},"sup":{"qJul":13.702702702702704,"qJan":13.252252252252251,"qYear":13.202,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 13.7 对、2026-01-31周六 13.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 13.2 对/日。","longRate":0.09835634451019068,"carsAvg":8.787,"seatsAvg":659.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率10%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.9016436554898093},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.09835634451019068}],"trainKm":3161158,"carKm":27776624,"seatKm":2083246810},"dem":{"load":0.3705,"loadLo":0.2683,"loadHi":0.5116,"prior":0.3705,"pkm":771898599,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计37%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6422461517574085,"real":0.289,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.642（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.20 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 328 公里 = 316 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.79 节/列 = 2,778 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 659 座/列 = 20.83 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.1% = 7.72 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.642 = 2.23 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.1 元 = 1.64 亿元\n线路维护 = 328 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.56 亿元\n折旧 = 328 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.08 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 7.04 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.23 − 1.64 − 6.56 − 7.08 − 7.04 = -20.08 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R061","name":"白乌快速铁路","km":83,"speed":200,"opened":"2017","region":"东北","via":"白城,乌兰浩特","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-4.743,"lo":-5.8109,"hi":-4.0137,"opProfit":-1.721,"opLo":-2.3656,"opHi":-1.2322,"perKm":-571.45,"opPerKm":-207.35,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.3493,"emuCost":0.2358,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.4103,"infra":1.66,"dep":1.5156,"int":1.5065},"sup":{"qJul":14.825010277811089,"qJan":null,"qYear":14.158,"kind":"asm","text":"该线未进入知乎分段表，开行对数沿用前一版相似线路推算。 折算后 14.2 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":600.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":1.0},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":857826,"carKm":6862610,"seatKm":514695745},"dem":{"load":0.3756,"loadLo":0.2727,"loadHi":0.5173,"prior":0.3756,"pkm":193317612,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.28,"ratio":0.645287332446663,"real":0.1807,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.28 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.645（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.10 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 14.16 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 83 公里 = 86 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 686 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 600 座/列 = 5.15 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.6% = 1.93 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.280 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.645 = 0.35 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.41 亿元\n线路维护 = 83 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.66 亿元\n折旧 = 83 公里 × 1.10 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.52 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 1.51 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.35 − 0.41 − 1.66 − 1.52 − 1.51 = -4.74 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。","开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R062","name":"胶济客专","km":362.5,"speed":250,"opened":"2008","region":"华东","via":"济南,章丘,淄博,青州,潍坊,高密,胶州,青岛","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.4691,"lo":-9.199,"hi":7.153,"opProfit":1.5306,"opLo":-6.1497,"opHi":9.2467,"perKm":-40.53,"opPerKm":42.22,"pProb":0.379,"pProbOp":0.562,"rev":22.2911,"emuCost":7.7089,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":62.88563829787234,"2018":71.77393617021276,"2019":69.28989361702128,"2020":50.273936170212764,"2021":69.8377659574468,"2022":62.5,"2023":64.75797872340425,"2024":71.25398936170212,"2025":74.31781914893617,"2026":73.55053191489361},"cost":{"train":13.5106,"infra":7.25,"dep":1.5044,"int":1.4953},"sup":{"qJul":73.55053191489361,"qJan":71.62632978723404,"qYear":71.113,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 73.6 对、2026-01-31周六 71.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 71.1 对/日。","longRate":0.4904506418369191,"carsAvg":11.924,"seatsAvg":894.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率49%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5095493581630809},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4904506418369191}],"trainKm":18818174,"carKm":224380480,"seatKm":16828536017},"dem":{"load":0.4981,"loadLo":0.3851,"loadHi":0.6442,"prior":0.4981,"pkm":8381895531,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7187675971957208,"real":0.2659,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.719（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约18年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 71.11 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 362.5 公里 = 1,882 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.92 节/列 = 22,438 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 894 座/列 = 168.29 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.8% = 83.82 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.719 = 22.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 13.51 亿元\n线路维护 = 362.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.25 亿元\n折旧 = 362.5 公里 × 0.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.50 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通18年）× 3.3% = 1.50 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 22.29 − 13.51 − 7.25 − 1.50 − 1.50 = -1.47 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R063","name":"济青高铁","km":307.8,"speed":350,"opened":"2018","region":"华东","via":"济南东,章丘,淄博,青州,潍坊,高密,胶州,红岛","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-17.4105,"lo":-26.7856,"hi":-9.9409,"opProfit":2.4565,"opLo":-4.9616,"opHi":9.5351,"perKm":-565.64,"opPerKm":79.81,"pProb":0.004,"pProbOp":0.648,"rev":24.9686,"emuCost":7.271,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":38.37049180327869,"2020":29.101639344262296,"2021":51.044262295081964,"2022":40.08360655737705,"2023":63.75573770491803,"2024":66.51147540983607,"2025":68.77377049180328,"2026":69.75409836065573},"cost":{"train":13.2781,"infra":9.234,"dep":9.9635,"int":9.9035},"sup":{"qJul":69.75409836065573,"qJan":61.50983606557377,"qYear":64.216,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 69.8 对、2026-01-31周六 61.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 64.2 对/日。","longRate":0.5735673795534666,"carsAvg":12.761,"seatsAvg":913.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.4264326204465334},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5735673795534666}],"trainKm":14429012,"carKm":184122979,"seatKm":13180607924},"dem":{"load":0.5334,"loadLo":0.4556,"loadHi":0.6243,"prior":0.5882,"pkm":7030046287,"kind":"der","text":"济青高铁2024年发送1602.62万人次（山东铁投评级报告，线路公司口径）；人均收入约144元接近全程票价，说明以全程旅客为主，alpha取0.85。 换算本线口径约35%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线59%按精度合并（本线证据权重23%）。","evidence":[{"text":"山东铁投评级报告（本项目逐线客流检索）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4799999999999999,"ratio":0.7399371887630863,"real":0.3552,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.740（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.95 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 64.22 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 307.8 公里 = 1,443 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.76 节/列 = 18,412 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 913 座/列 = 131.81 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.3% = 70.30 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.740 = 24.97 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.4 元 = 13.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 307.8 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 9.23 亿元\n折旧 = 307.8 公里 × 1.95 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 9.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 9.90 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 24.97 − 13.28 − 9.23 − 9.96 − 9.90 = -17.41 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"山东铁路发展基金2025跟踪评级","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-06-23/242706_20250623_HAJW.pdf","note":"年度或累计收入、投资，不是每线完整利润。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R064","name":"青荣城际","km":298.8,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"华东","via":"青岛北,莱西,莱阳,海阳,烟台,威海,文登,荣成","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.7114,"lo":-20.9246,"hi":-11.5675,"opProfit":-3.4475,"opLo":-7.3364,"opHi":0.1099,"perKm":-525.82,"opPerKm":-115.38,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.106,"rev":8.3512,"emuCost":3.2989,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":28.29655172413793,"2018":33.672413793103445,"2019":40.83793103448276,"2020":38.203448275862065,"2021":65.51379310344828,"2022":61.32931034482758,"2023":62.189655172413794,"2024":68.44310344827586,"2025":67.63103448275862,"2026":41.741379310344826},"cost":{"train":5.8226,"infra":5.976,"dep":6.1505,"int":6.1134},"sup":{"qJul":41.741379310344826,"qJan":39.39655172413793,"qYear":39.728,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 41.7 对、2026-01-31周六 39.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 39.7 对/日。","longRate":0.3850432052870715,"carsAvg":11.08,"seatsAvg":831.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率39%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6149567947129285},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.3850432052870715}],"trainKm":8665690,"carKm":96018845,"seatKm":7201413401},"dem":{"load":0.4531,"loadLo":0.3423,"loadHi":0.5997,"prior":0.4531,"pkm":3262755675,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.6917676762345222,"real":0.256,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.692（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.24 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 39.73 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 298.8 公里 = 867 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.08 节/列 = 9,602 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 831 座/列 = 72.01 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.3% = 32.63 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.692 = 8.35 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.0 元 = 5.82 亿元\n线路维护 = 298.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.98 亿元\n折旧 = 298.8 公里 × 1.24 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.15 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 6.11 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.35 − 5.82 − 5.98 − 6.15 − 6.11 = -15.71 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"哈齐十周年开行54对","url":"https://www.hlj.gov.cn/hlj/c107856/202508/c00_31865913.shtml","note":"2025时点开行；编组和全年载客率未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R065","name":"潍莱高铁","km":122,"speed":350,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"潍坊,昌邑,平度,莱西","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.5145,"lo":-8.9657,"hi":-4.5739,"opProfit":-1.1841,"opLo":-3.0281,"opHi":0.4962,"perKm":-533.97,"opPerKm":-97.05,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.19,"rev":4.7412,"emuCost":1.2441,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":20.62704918032787,"2022":21.12704918032787,"2023":22.62704918032787,"2024":27.25409836065574,"2025":27.704918032786885,"2026":26.918032786885245},"cost":{"train":2.2652,"infra":3.66,"dep":2.6733,"int":2.6572},"sup":{"qJul":26.918032786885245,"qJan":27.33606557377049,"qYear":26.59,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 26.9 对、2026-01-31周六 27.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 26.6 对/日。","longRate":0.6390328867235079,"carsAvg":13.304,"seatsAvg":954.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率64%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.3609671132764921},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6390328867235079}],"trainKm":2368082,"carKm":31504895,"seatKm":2260086623},"dem":{"load":0.5208,"loadLo":0.4331,"loadHi":0.6261,"prior":0.5208,"pkm":1177011589,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7323892909996027,"real":0.4028,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.732（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.32 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 26.59 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 122 公里 = 237 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.30 节/列 = 3,150 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 954 座/列 = 22.60 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.1% = 11.77 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.732 = 4.74 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.8 元 = 2.27 亿元\n线路维护 = 122 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.66 亿元\n折旧 = 122 公里 × 1.32 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.67 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 2.66 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.74 − 2.27 − 3.66 − 2.67 − 2.66 = -6.51 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"山东铁路发展基金2025跟踪评级","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-06-23/242706_20250623_HAJW.pdf","note":"年度或累计收入、投资，不是每线完整利润。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R066","name":"莱荣高铁","km":192.36,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华东","via":"莱西,莱阳,海阳,乳山,文登,荣成","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-8.8872,"lo":-13.7092,"hi":-5.0068,"opProfit":0.7908,"opLo":-2.9588,"opHi":4.4129,"perKm":-462.01,"opPerKm":41.11,"pProb":0.005,"pProbOp":0.574,"rev":12.1134,"emuCost":3.0189,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":7.0,"2025":9.0,"2026":48.0},"cost":{"train":5.5518,"infra":5.7708,"dep":4.8536,"int":4.8244},"sup":{"qJul":48.0,"qJan":47.5,"qYear":46.789,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 48.0 对、2026-01-31周六 47.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 46.8 对/日。","longRate":0.43799999999999994,"carsAvg":11.635,"seatsAvg":828.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率44%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.562},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.43799999999999994}],"trainKm":6570207,"carKm":76446990,"seatKm":5445059286},"dem":{"load":0.5426,"loadLo":0.4551,"loadHi":0.6469,"prior":0.5426,"pkm":2954422646,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7454715609113292,"real":0.41,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.745（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 46.79 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 192.36 公里 = 657 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.64 节/列 = 7,645 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 829 座/列 = 54.45 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.3% = 29.54 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.745 = 12.11 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.4 元 = 5.55 亿元\n线路维护 = 192.36 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.77 亿元\n折旧 = 192.36 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.85 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 4.82 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.11 − 5.55 − 5.77 − 4.85 − 4.82 = -8.89 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"山东铁路发展基金2025跟踪评级","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-06-23/242706_20250623_HAJW.pdf","note":"年度或累计收入、投资，不是每线完整利润。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R067","name":"潍烟高铁","km":236,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华东","via":"潍坊,昌邑,莱州,龙口,蓬莱,烟台","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-23.0076,"lo":-28.6273,"hi":-19.092,"opProfit":-5.7439,"opLo":-8.6237,"opHi":-3.5598,"perKm":-974.9,"opPerKm":-243.39,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":3.2738,"emuCost":1.0492,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":14.940928270042194,"2026":17.740506329113924},"cost":{"train":1.9378,"infra":7.08,"dep":8.6579,"int":8.6057},"sup":{"qJul":17.740506329113924,"qJan":10.940928270042194,"qYear":13.969,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 17.7 对、2026-01-31周六 10.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 14.0 对/日。","longRate":0.36627470567249376,"carsAvg":11.04,"seatsAvg":783.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率37%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6337252943275062},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.36627470567249376}],"trainKm":2406564,"carKm":26568654,"seatKm":1886557336},"dem":{"load":0.4276,"loadLo":0.3431,"loadHi":0.5328,"prior":0.4276,"pkm":806604992,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计43%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.676458754481914,"real":0.4059,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.676（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.21 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.97 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 236 公里 = 241 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.04 节/列 = 2,657 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 784 座/列 = 18.87 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 42.8% = 8.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.676 = 3.27 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.9 元 = 1.94 亿元\n线路维护 = 236 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.08 亿元\n折旧 = 236 公里 × 2.21 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.66 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 8.61 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.27 − 1.94 − 7.08 − 8.66 − 8.61 = -23.01 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"山东铁路发展基金2025跟踪评级","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2025-06-23/242706_20250623_HAJW.pdf","note":"年度或累计收入、投资，不是每线完整利润。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R068","name":"济莱高铁","km":117.5,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华东","via":"济南东,莱芜,钢城","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.3908,"lo":-11.5419,"hi":-7.9511,"opProfit":-3.4791,"opLo":-4.844,"opHi":-2.5035,"perKm":-799.21,"opPerKm":-296.09,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2483,"emuCost":0.1062,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":4.0,"2024":5.0,"2025":4.0,"2026":4.0},"cost":{"train":0.2024,"infra":3.525,"dep":2.9648,"int":2.9469},"sup":{"qJul":4.0,"qJan":4.0,"qYear":3.92,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 4.0 对、2026-01-31周六 4.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 3.9 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":555.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":1.0},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":336238,"carKm":2689904,"seatKm":186612090},"dem":{"load":0.3751,"loadLo":0.2949,"loadHi":0.4769,"prior":0.3751,"pkm":69989483,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.6449618150117686,"real":0.3547,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.645（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 3.92 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 117.5 公里 = 34 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 269 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 555 座/列 = 1.87 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.5% = 0.70 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.645 = 0.25 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.20 亿元\n线路维护 = 117.5 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.52 亿元\n折旧 = 117.5 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 2.95 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.25 − 0.20 − 3.52 − 2.96 − 2.95 = -9.39 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R069","name":"济郑高铁郑濮段","km":195.3,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华中","via":"郑州,新乡,濮阳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-7.4394,"lo":-13.2388,"hi":-2.8184,"opProfit":3.938,"opLo":-0.789,"opHi":8.3244,"perKm":-380.92,"opPerKm":201.64,"pProb":0.025,"pProbOp":0.849,"rev":16.1191,"emuCost":3.4688,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":18.70769230769231,"2023":19.884615384615383,"2024":38.176923076923075,"2025":41.03076923076923,"2026":49.56153846153846},"cost":{"train":6.3221,"infra":5.859,"dep":5.7059,"int":5.6715},"sup":{"qJul":49.56153846153846,"qJan":46.38461538461539,"qYear":46.974,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 49.6 对、2026-01-31周六 46.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 47.0 对/日。","longRate":0.6164261989756323,"carsAvg":13.116,"seatsAvg":940.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率62%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.38357380102436767},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6164261989756323}],"trainKm":6697022,"carKm":87840407,"seatKm":6296985063},"dem":{"load":0.5646,"loadLo":0.4775,"loadHi":0.6674,"prior":0.5646,"pkm":3555001411,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计56%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5976682752365566,"ratio":0.7586511250168834,"real":0.4534,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.759（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.76 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 46.97 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 195.3 公里 = 670 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.12 节/列 = 8,784 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 940 座/列 = 62.97 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.5% = 35.55 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.598 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.759 = 16.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.7 元 = 6.32 亿元\n线路维护 = 195.3 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.86 亿元\n折旧 = 195.3 公里 × 1.76 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.71 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 5.67 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 16.12 − 6.32 − 5.86 − 5.71 − 5.67 = -7.44 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R070","name":"济郑高铁濮济段","km":209,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华东-华中","via":"濮阳,莘县,聊城,济南西","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-13.8923,"lo":-19.2994,"hi":-9.6216,"opProfit":-0.4024,"opLo":-4.1726,"opHi":3.143,"perKm":-664.7,"opPerKm":-19.25,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.419,"rev":11.1337,"emuCost":2.8766,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":28.617924528301888,"2025":32.966981132075475,"2026":41.0188679245283},"cost":{"train":5.2661,"infra":6.27,"dep":6.7653,"int":6.7246},"sup":{"qJul":41.0188679245283,"qJan":37.990566037735846,"qYear":38.677,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 41.0 对、2026-01-31周六 38.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.7 对/日。","longRate":0.5234368100275989,"carsAvg":12.345,"seatsAvg":882.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.4765631899724011},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5234368100275989}],"trainKm":5900915,"carKm":72843991,"seatKm":5205480073},"dem":{"load":0.5279,"loadLo":0.4403,"loadHi":0.633,"prior":0.5279,"pkm":2747965221,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计53%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7366589614618911,"real":0.4052,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.737（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.95 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.68 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 209 公里 = 590 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.34 节/列 = 7,284 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 882 座/列 = 52.05 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.8% = 27.48 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.737 = 11.13 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 5.27 亿元\n线路维护 = 209 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 6.27 亿元\n折旧 = 209 公里 × 1.95 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.77 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 6.72 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 11.13 − 5.27 − 6.27 − 6.77 − 6.72 = -13.89 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R071","name":"日兰高铁","km":494,"speed":350,"opened":"2019–2024","region":"华东-华中","via":"日照,临沂,费县,曲阜,济宁,菏泽,兰考","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-30.0387,"lo":-40.786,"hi":-22.2169,"opProfit":-4.04,"opLo":-11.8342,"opHi":2.4145,"perKm":-608.07,"opPerKm":-81.78,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.217,"rev":20.2971,"emuCost":5.1571,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":8.040254237288135,"2021":9.544491525423728,"2022":16.49364406779661,"2023":17.871822033898304,"2024":15.472457627118644,"2025":31.546610169491526,"2026":36.65889830508475},"cost":{"train":9.5171,"infra":14.82,"dep":13.0386,"int":12.9601},"sup":{"qJul":36.65889830508475,"qJan":29.828389830508474,"qYear":32.493,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 36.7 对、2026-01-31周六 29.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 32.5 对/日。","longRate":0.37888689822574123,"carsAvg":11.145,"seatsAvg":791.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率38%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6211131017742588},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.37888689822574123}],"trainKm":11717766,"carKm":130591707,"seatKm":9278177829},"dem":{"load":0.5363,"loadLo":0.4487,"loadHi":0.6409,"prior":0.5363,"pkm":4975675201,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7416856214247068,"real":0.4079,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.742（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.59 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 32.49 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 494 公里 = 1,172 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.14 节/列 = 13,059 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 792 座/列 = 92.78 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.6% = 49.76 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.742 = 20.30 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.0 元 = 9.52 亿元\n线路维护 = 494 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 14.82 亿元\n折旧 = 494 公里 × 1.59 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 13.04 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 12.96 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 20.30 − 9.52 − 14.82 − 13.04 − 12.96 = -30.04 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R072","name":"石济客专","km":323,"speed":250,"opened":"2017","region":"华北-华东","via":"石家庄,辛集,衡水,德州,济南东","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-17.5843,"lo":-23.6701,"hi":-12.4549,"opProfit":-2.7234,"opLo":-7.1907,"opHi":1.7826,"perKm":-544.4,"opPerKm":-84.31,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.203,"rev":11.3718,"emuCost":4.3534,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":15.254071661237784,"2019":25.876221498371336,"2020":21.957654723127035,"2021":38.659609120521175,"2022":28.62540716612378,"2023":37.40065146579805,"2024":39.358306188925084,"2025":45.4299674267101,"2026":48.21661237785016},"cost":{"train":7.6351,"infra":6.46,"dep":7.4529,"int":7.408},"sup":{"qJul":48.21661237785016,"qJan":44.55374592833876,"qYear":45.412,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 48.2 对、2026-01-31周六 44.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.4 对/日。","longRate":0.4792368856612059,"carsAvg":11.834,"seatsAvg":887.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率48%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5207631143387941},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4792368856612059}],"trainKm":10707622,"carKm":126712879,"seatKm":9503465939},"dem":{"load":0.4634,"loadLo":0.3519,"loadHi":0.6101,"prior":0.4634,"pkm":4403585397,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6979438137152955,"real":0.2582,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.698（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.39 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.41 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 323 公里 = 1,071 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.83 节/列 = 12,671 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 888 座/列 = 95.03 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.3% = 44.04 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.698 = 11.37 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.6 元 = 7.64 亿元\n线路维护 = 323 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.46 亿元\n折旧 = 323 公里 × 1.39 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.45 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 7.41 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 11.37 − 7.64 − 6.46 − 7.45 − 7.41 = -17.58 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"河北建投交通问询回复：2024财务","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_QQKI.pdf","note":"PDF第13–15页；多个公司含在建和其他线路。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"河北建投交通投资2025公司债券主承销商核查材料","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf","note":"Astra独立读取并视觉核对财务页；金额及主体边界见独立审计。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"石济铁路客运专线有限公司","year":"2024","netProfit":-4.63,"revenue":11.15,"note":"公司表351公里，登记新建323公里；金额公司近似，不称精确新建段实绩","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/bond/bridge2/disclosure/announcement/c/202510/e1464e_20251030_Z100.pdf"}},{"id":"R073","name":"青连铁路","km":194,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"华东","via":"青岛北,胶州,日照,连云港","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.5985,"lo":-11.3211,"hi":-2.586,"opProfit":0.8504,"opLo":-3.2868,"opHi":4.8024,"perKm":-340.13,"opPerKm":43.83,"pProb":0.025,"pProbOp":0.586,"rev":11.3213,"emuCost":3.991,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":12.186507936507937,"2020":19.978174603174605,"2021":45.8968253968254,"2022":46.492063492063494,"2023":51.785714285714285,"2024":58.98412698412698,"2025":65.74404761904762,"2026":68.5},"cost":{"train":6.591,"infra":3.88,"dep":3.7357,"int":3.7132},"sup":{"qJul":66.71052631578948,"qJan":66.39912280701755,"qYear":65.22,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 66.7 对、2026-01-31周六 66.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 65.2 对/日。","longRate":0.5721051939513477,"carsAvg":12.577,"seatsAvg":943.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.42789480604865227},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5721051939513477}],"trainKm":9236433,"carKm":116165156,"seatKm":8712386677},"dem":{"load":0.4914,"loadLo":0.3786,"loadHi":0.6377,"prior":0.4914,"pkm":4281005304,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7147442249106482,"real":0.2645,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.715（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.16 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 65.22 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 194 公里 = 924 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.58 节/列 = 11,617 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 943 座/列 = 87.12 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.1% = 42.81 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.715 = 11.32 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 6.59 亿元\n线路维护 = 194 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.88 亿元\n折旧 = 194 公里 × 1.16 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.74 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 3.71 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 11.32 − 6.59 − 3.88 − 3.74 − 3.71 = -6.60 亿元","notes":["更正：qJul 由 68.5 改为 66.7105——独立审计：去掉青岛—红岛枢纽段","更正：qJan 由 67.17063492063492 改为 66.3991——独立审计：去掉青岛—红岛枢纽段","更正：longRate 由 0.5743512918549415 改为 0.5721——独立审计：去掉青岛—红岛枢纽段","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R074","name":"连盐铁路","km":234,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"华东","via":"连云港,灌云,灌南,滨海,盐城","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-11.9522,"lo":-15.696,"hi":-8.975,"opProfit":-2.9675,"opLo":-5.6295,"opHi":-0.3582,"perKm":-510.78,"opPerKm":-126.82,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.074,"rev":5.5938,"emuCost":2.3648,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":4.0,"2020":5.602150537634409,"2021":24.419354838709676,"2022":21.666666666666668,"2023":25.70967741935484,"2024":27.010752688172044,"2025":31.537634408602152,"2026":30.811827956989248},"cost":{"train":3.8814,"infra":4.68,"dep":4.5059,"int":4.4788},"sup":{"qJul":30.811827956989248,"qJan":30.311827956989248,"qYear":29.944,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 30.8 对、2026-01-31周六 30.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 29.9 对/日。","longRate":0.6820469377072065,"carsAvg":13.456,"seatsAvg":1009.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率68%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.3179530622927935},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6820469377072065}],"trainKm":5115092,"carKm":68830604,"seatKm":5162295302},"dem":{"load":0.4314,"loadLo":0.3224,"loadHi":0.5774,"prior":0.4314,"pkm":2227249106,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计43%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.6787934491525663,"real":0.2512,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.679（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.16 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 29.94 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 234 公里 = 512 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.46 节/列 = 6,883 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1009 座/列 = 51.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.1% = 22.27 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.679 = 5.59 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 18.0 元 = 3.88 亿元\n线路维护 = 234 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.68 亿元\n折旧 = 234 公里 × 1.16 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.51 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 4.48 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.59 − 3.88 − 4.68 − 4.51 − 4.48 = -11.95 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R075","name":"盐通高铁","km":156.6,"speed":350,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"盐城,东台,海安,如皋,南通","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.2687,"lo":-9.9461,"hi":-1.1543,"opProfit":3.3359,"opLo":-0.6308,"opHi":7.1247,"perKm":-336.44,"opPerKm":213.02,"pProb":0.058,"pProbOp":0.857,"rev":13.6463,"emuCost":3.0869,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":40.0,"2022":36.0,"2023":47.15822784810127,"2024":46.65822784810127,"2025":52.15822784810127,"2026":52.65822784810127},"cost":{"train":5.6124,"infra":4.698,"dep":4.3153,"int":4.2893},"sup":{"qJul":52.65822784810127,"qJan":50.15822784810127,"qYear":50.349,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 52.7 对、2026-01-31周六 50.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 50.3 对/日。","longRate":0.6724079927884614,"carsAvg":13.581,"seatsAvg":975.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率67%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.3275920072115386},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6724079927884614}],"trainKm":5755776,"carKm":78169110,"seatKm":5613348944},"dem":{"load":0.5698,"loadLo":0.483,"loadHi":0.6723,"prior":0.5698,"pkm":3198703801,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计57%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.56,"ratio":0.76182036835847,"real":0.4266,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.56 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.762（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.66 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 50.35 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 156.6 公里 = 576 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.58 节/列 = 7,817 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 975 座/列 = 56.13 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.0% = 31.99 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.560 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.762 = 13.65 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.1 元 = 5.61 亿元\n线路维护 = 156.6 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.70 亿元\n折旧 = 156.6 公里 × 1.66 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.32 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 4.29 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.65 − 5.61 − 4.70 − 4.32 − 4.29 = -5.27 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R076","name":"连镇高铁新建区段","km":305.2,"speed":250,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"灌云,灌南,淮安,宝应,高邮,扬州,丹徒","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.9581,"lo":-16.3965,"hi":3.2791,"opProfit":6.7808,"opLo":-1.6525,"opHi":15.6088,"perKm":-227.99,"opPerKm":222.17,"pProb":0.175,"pProbOp":0.856,"rev":24.719,"emuCost":6.8286,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":1.576470588235294,"2021":59.42058823529412,"2022":49.57941176470588,"2023":61.22941176470588,"2024":64.84117647058824,"2025":67.73529411764706,"2026":68.25294117647059},"cost":{"train":11.8342,"infra":6.104,"dep":6.8902,"int":6.8487},"sup":{"qJul":68.25294117647059,"qJan":66.23529411764706,"qYear":65.874,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 68.3 对、2026-01-31周六 66.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 65.9 对/日。","longRate":0.6928252176161338,"carsAvg":13.543,"seatsAvg":1015.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率69%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.3071747823838662},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6928252176161338}],"trainKm":14676467,"carKm":198757547,"seatKm":14906816046},"dem":{"load":0.4921,"loadLo":0.3793,"loadHi":0.6385,"prior":0.4921,"pkm":7336294761,"kind":"curve","text":"连镇高铁开通5年累计运送8750万（年均1750万，含疫情年），近年高于均值，增长取25%，alpha取0.5。 为多年累计÷年数（含疫情年），只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约22%，拟合曲线49%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"连镇高铁五周年","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4711094809750873,"ratio":0.7152083699510663,"real":0.3369,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.47 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.715（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 65.87 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 305.2 公里 = 1,468 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.54 节/列 = 19,876 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1016 座/列 = 149.07 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.2% = 73.36 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.471 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.715 = 24.72 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 18.0 元 = 11.83 亿元\n线路维护 = 305.2 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.10 亿元\n折旧 = 305.2 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.89 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 6.85 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 24.72 − 11.83 − 6.10 − 6.89 − 6.85 = -6.96 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R077","name":"徐盐高铁","km":315.5,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"华东","via":"徐州,宿迁,泗阳,淮安,盐城","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-13.3434,"lo":-20.1422,"hi":-7.0051,"opProfit":0.9636,"opLo":-4.63,"opHi":6.7803,"perKm":-422.93,"opPerKm":30.54,"pProb":0.007,"pProbOp":0.568,"rev":15.8535,"emuCost":4.938,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":13.258785942492013,"2021":40.09904153354633,"2022":30.85303514376997,"2023":42.575079872204476,"2024":45.02396166134185,"2025":45.22044728434505,"2026":50.17571884984026},"cost":{"train":8.58,"infra":6.31,"dep":7.1751,"int":7.1319},"sup":{"qJul":50.17571884984026,"qJan":46.87220447284345,"qYear":47.512,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 50.2 对、2026-01-31周六 46.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 47.5 对/日。","longRate":0.641843170964661,"carsAvg":13.135,"seatsAvg":985.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率64%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.35815682903533896},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.641843170964661}],"trainKm":10942770,"carKm":143730494,"seatKm":10779787016},"dem":{"load":0.4669,"loadLo":0.3552,"loadHi":0.6136,"prior":0.4669,"pkm":5032599876,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计47%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45000000000000007,"ratio":0.7000369686421861,"real":0.315,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.700（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.37 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 47.51 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 315.5 公里 = 1,094 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.13 节/列 = 14,373 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 985 座/列 = 107.80 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.7% = 50.33 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.700 = 15.85 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.7 元 = 8.58 亿元\n线路维护 = 315.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.31 亿元\n折旧 = 315.5 公里 × 1.37 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.18 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 7.13 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 15.85 − 8.58 − 6.31 − 7.18 − 7.13 = -13.34 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R078","name":"徐连高铁","km":180,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"华东","via":"徐州,邳州,新沂,连云港","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-12.1469,"lo":-15.763,"hi":-9.5749,"opProfit":-3.0907,"opLo":-5.4655,"opHi":-1.1002,"perKm":-674.83,"opPerKm":-171.71,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.026,"rev":4.7059,"emuCost":1.3061,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":24.0,"2022":19.0,"2023":20.0,"2024":24.0,"2025":25.0,"2026":23.0},"cost":{"train":2.3967,"infra":5.4,"dep":4.5418,"int":4.5144},"sup":{"qJul":23.0,"qJan":20.0,"qYear":21.032,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 23.0 对、2026-01-31周六 20.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 21.0 对/日。","longRate":0.478,"carsAvg":11.967,"seatsAvg":853.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率48%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.522},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.478}],"trainKm":2763670,"carKm":33073950,"seatKm":2359483689},"dem":{"load":0.5026,"loadLo":0.4151,"loadHi":0.6085,"prior":0.5026,"pkm":1185909742,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7214899531322759,"real":0.3968,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.721（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 21.03 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 180 公里 = 276 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.97 节/列 = 3,307 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 854 座/列 = 23.59 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.3% = 11.86 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.721 = 4.71 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 2.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 180 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.40 亿元\n折旧 = 180 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.54 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 4.51 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.71 − 2.40 − 5.40 − 4.54 − 4.51 = -12.15 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"徐连四周年","url":"https://www.xhby.net/content/s67a73fd6e4b08bf6e4d4b281.html","note":"四年累计3400万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R079","name":"沪通铁路一期","km":137.5,"speed":200,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"南通,张家港,常熟,太仓","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.1359,"lo":-13.9146,"hi":-5.2506,"opProfit":3.107,"opLo":-0.1958,"opHi":6.374,"perKm":-664.43,"opPerKm":225.96,"pProb":0.002,"pProbOp":0.886,"rev":9.9242,"emuCost":2.3895,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":35.66,"2021":71.17,"2022":48.17,"2023":67.17,"2024":65.17,"2025":74.84,"2026":74.84},"cost":{"train":4.0672,"infra":2.75,"dep":6.1399,"int":6.1029},"sup":{"qJul":74.84,"qJan":74.34,"qYear":73.092,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 74.8 对、2026-01-31周六 74.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 73.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.48,"seatsAvg":709.9,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：经本线276列，16/17节约19%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":610,"share":0.815,"label":"8节CRH2A为主"},{"cars":16,"seats":1150,"share":0.185,"label":"16/17节"}],"trainKm":7336604,"carKm":69551010,"seatKm":5208255521},"dem":{"load":0.5002,"loadLo":0.3871,"loadHi":0.6463,"prior":0.5002,"pkm":2605195688,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5290490398871491,"ratio":0.7200446847264447,"real":0.3809,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.53 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.720（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.69 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 73.09 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 137.5 公里 = 734 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.48 节/列 = 6,955 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 710 座/列 = 52.08 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.0% = 26.05 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.529 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.720 = 9.92 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 4.07 亿元\n线路维护 = 137.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.75 亿元\n折旧 = 137.5 公里 × 2.69 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.14 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 6.10 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 9.92 − 4.07 − 2.75 − 6.14 − 6.10 = -9.14 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"江苏铁路集团2025年中票募集说明书","url":"https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/BOND/2025/2025-4/2025-04-24/22280804.PDF","note":"沪宁、宁杭多项目公司，南沿江初期不足全年。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R080","name":"沪宁城际","km":301,"speed":350,"opened":"2010","region":"华东","via":"南京,镇江,常州,无锡,苏州,上海","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":38.239,"lo":17.7648,"hi":57.7847,"opProfit":47.8207,"opLo":27.5273,"opHi":67.672,"perKm":1270.4,"opPerKm":1588.73,"pProb":0.991,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":87.2983,"emuCost":16.7961,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":114.77574750830564,"2018":119.99667774086379,"2019":119.33388704318936,"2020":105.5016611295681,"2021":139.35049833887044,"2022":108.48504983388705,"2023":140.22259136212625,"2024":142.2109634551495,"2025":140.95847176079735,"2026":139.48172757475083},"cost":{"train":30.4476,"infra":9.03,"dep":6.5455,"int":3.0362},"sup":{"qJul":139.48172757475083,"qJan":138.9235880398671,"qYear":136.412,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 139.5 对、2026-01-31周六 138.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 136.4 对/日。","longRate":0.7457735804115854,"carsAvg":14.19,"seatsAvg":1021.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率75%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.25422641958841463},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7457735804115854}],"trainKm":29973727,"carKm":425324810,"seatKm":30606427049},"dem":{"load":0.6434,"loadLo":0.561,"loadHi":0.738,"prior":0.6434,"pkm":19693398866,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计64%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8059762972761225,"real":0.4433,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.806（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.31 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 23% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 136.41 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 301 公里 = 2,997 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.19 节/列 = 42,532 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1021 座/列 = 306.06 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 64.3% = 196.93 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.806 = 87.30 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.6 元 = 30.45 亿元\n线路维护 = 301 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 9.03 亿元\n折旧 = 301 公里 × 1.31 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.55 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 23%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 3.04 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 87.30 − 30.45 − 9.03 − 6.55 − 3.04 = +38.24 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"江苏铁路集团2025年中票募集说明书","url":"https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/BOND/2025/2025-4/2025-04-24/22280804.PDF","note":"沪宁、宁杭多项目公司，南沿江初期不足全年。"},{"title":"上铁集团：长三角旅游计次票","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32061024","note":"2025-11-27起，宁杭、沪苏湖、杭温、杭黄、沪宁城际组合票；不能假设所有乘客按全价。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R081","name":"沪宁沿江高铁","km":278.53,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华东","via":"南京,句容,金坛,常州,江阴,张家港,常熟,太仓","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-18.999,"lo":-25.9783,"hi":-13.7234,"opProfit":-1.2979,"opLo":-6.1477,"opHi":3.1173,"perKm":-682.12,"opPerKm":-46.6,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.331,"rev":13.3947,"emuCost":3.4475,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":33.15090909090909,"2025":38.803636363636365,"2026":36.56727272727273},"cost":{"train":6.3367,"infra":8.3559,"dep":8.8773,"int":8.8238},"sup":{"qJul":36.56727272727273,"qJan":38.20363636363636,"qYear":36.658,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 36.6 对、2026-01-31周六 38.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 36.7 对/日。","longRate":0.4472872911694511,"carsAvg":11.712,"seatsAvg":834.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率45%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5527127088305489},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.4472872911694511}],"trainKm":7453598,"carKm":87300153,"seatKm":6220434315},"dem":{"load":0.5238,"loadLo":0.4361,"loadHi":0.629,"prior":0.5238,"pkm":3257973560,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.56,"ratio":0.734172154659351,"real":0.4111,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.56 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.734（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.92 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 36.66 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 278.53 公里 = 745 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.71 节/列 = 8,730 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 835 座/列 = 62.20 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.4% = 32.58 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.560 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.734 = 13.39 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.5 元 = 6.34 亿元\n线路维护 = 278.53 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.36 亿元\n折旧 = 278.53 公里 × 1.92 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.88 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 8.82 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.39 − 6.34 − 8.36 − 8.88 − 8.82 = -19.00 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"江苏铁路集团2025年中票募集说明书","url":"https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/BOND/2025/2025-4/2025-04-24/22280804.PDF","note":"沪宁、宁杭多项目公司，南沿江初期不足全年。"},{"title":"江苏省政府：沪宁沿江600余天运营","url":"https://www.jiangsu.gov.cn/art/2025/6/23/art_60095_11587204.html","note":"截至2025年5月累计1900万人，非同期全年客公里。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R082","name":"沪苏湖高铁","km":164,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华东","via":"上海,松江,盛泽,湖州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":1.7378,"lo":-6.6766,"hi":9.2982,"opProfit":14.3317,"opLo":6.5709,"opHi":21.9654,"perKm":105.97,"opPerKm":873.89,"pProb":0.563,"pProbOp":0.997,"rev":29.6825,"emuCost":5.6837,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":100.80182926829268,"2026":104.96341463414635},"cost":{"train":10.4308,"infra":4.92,"dep":6.316,"int":6.2779},"sup":{"qJul":104.96341463414635,"qJan":100.46341463414635,"qYear":100.603,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 105.0 对、2026-01-31周六 100.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 100.6 对/日。","longRate":0.47591123504124555,"carsAvg":11.95,"seatsAvg":852.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率48%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5240887649587544},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.47591123504124555}],"trainKm":12044179,"carKm":143928698,"seatKm":10266994196},"dem":{"load":0.5795,"loadLo":0.4929,"loadHi":0.6811,"prior":0.5795,"pkm":5949212240,"kind":"curve","text":"沪苏湖高铁开通首年（2024-12至2025-12）超3360万人次（下界）；上海—苏州—湖州短途为主，alpha取0.55。 为站发送口径，过境旅客未计入，只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约35%，拟合曲线58%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"中新网 沪苏湖一周年","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.7675866284051109,"real":0.4989,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.768（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.32 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 100.60 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 164 公里 = 1,204 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.95 节/列 = 14,393 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 852 座/列 = 102.67 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.9% = 59.49 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.768 = 29.68 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 10.43 亿元\n线路维护 = 164 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.92 亿元\n折旧 = 164 公里 × 2.32 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.32 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 6.28 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 29.68 − 10.43 − 4.92 − 6.32 − 6.28 = +1.74 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"沪苏湖项目预算","url":"https://www.gzw.sh.gov.cn/shgzw_zxzx_gqdt/20200616/0f06092b62c247ef994d26bfef1fabc0.html","note":"380.04亿元项目预算不等于折旧资产净值。"},{"title":"上铁集团：长三角旅游计次票","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32061024","note":"2025-11-27起，宁杭、沪苏湖、杭温、杭黄、沪宁城际组合票；不能假设所有乘客按全价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R083","name":"合宁铁路","km":166,"speed":250,"opened":"2008","region":"华东","via":"合肥,巢湖,南京","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":13.4764,"lo":4.089,"hi":22.4009,"opProfit":14.4007,"opLo":5.0564,"opHi":23.4246,"perKm":811.83,"opPerKm":867.51,"pProb":0.971,"pProbOp":0.982,"rev":30.8278,"emuCost":7.6114,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":85.0,"2018":96.5,"2019":98.0,"2020":89.5,"2021":119.5,"2022":117.5,"2023":114.0,"2024":123.5,"2025":126.5,"2026":128.5},"cost":{"train":13.1071,"infra":3.32,"dep":0.6613,"int":0.2629},"sup":{"qJul":128.5,"qJan":126.0,"qYear":124.674,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 128.5 对、2026-01-31周六 126.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 124.7 对/日。","longRate":0.833,"carsAvg":14.664,"seatsAvg":1099.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率83%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.16700000000000004},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.833}],"trainKm":15107965,"carKm":221543199,"seatKm":16615739934},"dem":{"load":0.5415,"loadLo":0.4281,"loadHi":0.685,"prior":0.5415,"pkm":8997650171,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4600000000000001,"ratio":0.7448271582085666,"real":0.3426,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.46 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.745（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.24 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约18年，按有息负债 20% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 124.67 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 166 公里 = 1,511 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.66 节/列 = 22,154 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1100 座/列 = 166.16 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.2% = 89.98 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.460 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.745 = 30.83 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 19.0 元 = 13.11 亿元\n线路维护 = 166 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.32 亿元\n折旧 = 166 公里 × 0.24 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.66 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 20%（开通18年）× 3.3% = 0.26 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 30.83 − 13.11 − 3.32 − 0.66 − 0.26 = +13.48 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R084","name":"合武铁路","km":359,"speed":250,"opened":"2009","region":"华东-华中","via":"合肥,六安,大别山,麻城,武汉","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":6.6743,"lo":-6.7729,"hi":18.7364,"opProfit":10.6817,"opLo":-1.0119,"opHi":22.8582,"perKm":185.91,"opPerKm":297.54,"pProb":0.688,"pProbOp":0.876,"rev":35.2981,"emuCost":10.1433,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":55.13239436619718,"2018":61.352112676056336,"2019":63.40845070422535,"2020":50.677464788732394,"2021":72.35211267605634,"2022":69.59718309859154,"2023":69.53098591549296,"2024":76.59718309859154,"2025":76.8943661971831,"2026":77.38450704225352},"cost":{"train":17.4365,"infra":7.18,"dep":2.8009,"int":1.2064},"sup":{"qJul":77.38450704225352,"qJan":75.88450704225352,"qYear":75.083,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 77.4 对、2026-01-31周六 75.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 75.1 对/日。","longRate":0.8755198842436707,"carsAvg":15.004,"seatsAvg":1125.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率88%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.12448011575632933},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.8755198842436707}],"trainKm":19677019,"carKm":295237128,"seatKm":22142784624},"dem":{"load":0.5023,"loadLo":0.3892,"loadHi":0.6483,"prior":0.5023,"pkm":11122077796,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.7212949392654048,"real":0.3174,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.721（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.47 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 22% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 75.08 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 359 公里 = 1,968 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.00 节/列 = 29,524 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1125 座/列 = 221.43 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.2% = 111.22 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.721 = 35.30 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 19.3 元 = 17.44 亿元\n线路维护 = 359 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.18 亿元\n折旧 = 359 公里 × 0.47 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.80 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 22%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 1.21 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 35.30 − 17.44 − 7.18 − 2.80 − 1.21 = +6.67 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R085","name":"合蚌高铁","km":132,"speed":350,"opened":"2012","region":"华东","via":"合肥,淮南,蚌埠","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.0916,"lo":-7.7782,"hi":-2.995,"opProfit":-0.504,"opLo":-2.7652,"opHi":1.3997,"perKm":-385.73,"opPerKm":-38.18,"pProb":0.003,"pProbOp":0.356,"rev":6.8569,"emuCost":1.8815,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":30.545454545454547,"2018":30.045454545454547,"2019":29.708333333333332,"2020":18.0,"2021":32.0,"2022":28.0,"2023":32.5,"2024":33.0,"2025":33.0,"2026":34.0},"cost":{"train":3.4009,"infra":3.96,"dep":2.3008,"int":2.2869},"sup":{"qJul":34.0,"qJan":34.0,"qYear":33.32,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 34.0 对、2026-01-31周六 34.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 33.3 对/日。","longRate":0.8240000000000001,"carsAvg":14.839,"seatsAvg":1070.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率82%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.17599999999999993},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.8240000000000001}],"trainKm":3210715,"carKm":47644445,"seatKm":3435465264},"dem":{"load":0.5711,"loadLo":0.4958,"loadHi":0.6578,"prior":0.5382,"pkm":1961883269,"kind":"der","text":"合蚌约2016–17年客运密度约1500万人公里/公里（世行报告图读）；按2017年7月开行与现座位折算当年客座率，作为现期弱证据。 换算本线口径约66%；与拟合曲线54%按精度合并（本线证据权重26%）。","evidence":[{"text":"世界银行2019《中国高速铁路发展》图读客运密度（约2016–17年）","url":"https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/933411559841476316/pdf/Chinas-High-Speed-Rail-Development.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45833333333333337,"ratio":0.7625576561618999,"real":0.3495,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.46 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.763（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.05 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 33.32 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 132 公里 = 321 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.84 节/列 = 4,764 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1070 座/列 = 34.35 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.1% = 19.62 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.458 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.763 = 6.86 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.1 元 = 3.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 132 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.96 亿元\n折旧 = 132 公里 × 1.05 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.30 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 2.29 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.86 − 3.40 − 3.96 − 2.30 − 2.29 = -5.09 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R086","name":"宁杭高铁","km":249,"speed":350,"opened":"2013","region":"华东","via":"南京,句容,宜兴,湖州,杭州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":17.2153,"lo":5.3855,"hi":28.1205,"opProfit":24.5168,"opLo":13.0034,"opHi":35.3446,"perKm":691.38,"opPerKm":984.61,"pProb":0.957,"pProbOp":0.999,"rev":51.5524,"emuCost":10.8124,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":78.361328125,"2018":83.947265625,"2019":93.724609375,"2020":84.18359375,"2021":105.763671875,"2022":97.712890625,"2023":98.4921875,"2024":108.291015625,"2025":103.71484375,"2026":107.298828125},"cost":{"train":19.5656,"infra":7.47,"dep":4.6707,"int":2.6308},"sup":{"qJul":107.298828125,"qJan":103.576171875,"qYear":103.282,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 107.3 对、2026-01-31周六 103.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 103.3 对/日。","longRate":0.7932982507235561,"carsAvg":14.584,"seatsAvg":1050.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率79%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.2067017492764439},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7932982507235561}],"trainKm":18773609,"carKm":273801356,"seatKm":19727522006},"dem":{"load":0.6063,"loadLo":0.5325,"loadHi":0.6903,"prior":0.6234,"pkm":11960406079,"kind":"der","text":"宁杭约2016–17年客运密度约3200万人公里/公里（世行报告图读）；按2017年7月开行与现座位折算当年客座率，作为现期弱证据。 换算本线口径约56%；与拟合曲线62%按精度合并（本线证据权重26%）。","evidence":[{"text":"世界银行2019《中国高速铁路发展》图读客运密度（约2016–17年）","url":"https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/933411559841476316/pdf/Chinas-High-Speed-Rail-Development.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7836828564956325,"real":0.431,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.784（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.13 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 28% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 103.28 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 249 公里 = 1,877 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.58 节/列 = 27,380 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1051 座/列 = 197.28 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.6% = 119.60 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.784 = 51.55 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.9 元 = 19.57 亿元\n线路维护 = 249 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.47 亿元\n折旧 = 249 公里 × 1.13 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.67 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 28%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 2.63 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 51.55 − 19.57 − 7.47 − 4.67 − 2.63 = +17.22 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"江苏铁路集团2025年中票募集说明书","url":"https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/BOND/2025/2025-4/2025-04-24/22280804.PDF","note":"沪宁、宁杭多项目公司，南沿江初期不足全年。"},{"title":"上铁集团：长三角旅游计次票","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32061024","note":"2025-11-27起，宁杭、沪苏湖、杭温、杭黄、沪宁城际组合票；不能假设所有乘客按全价。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R087","name":"宁安高铁","km":258,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"华东","via":"南京,马鞍山,芜湖,铜陵,池州,安庆","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.9639,"lo":-12.6325,"hi":-1.5991,"opProfit":1.5759,"opLo":-3.4808,"opHi":6.729,"perKm":-269.92,"opPerKm":61.08,"pProb":0.057,"pProbOp":0.647,"rev":14.5052,"emuCost":4.4404,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":20.073929961089494,"2018":27.071984435797667,"2019":23.898832684824903,"2020":28.44747081712062,"2021":39.476653696498055,"2022":39.202334630350194,"2023":48.280155642023345,"2024":59.48054474708171,"2025":59.8715953307393,"2026":58.01945525291829},"cost":{"train":7.7693,"infra":5.16,"dep":4.2828,"int":4.257},"sup":{"qJul":58.01945525291829,"qJan":57.3579766536965,"qYear":56.527,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 58.0 对、2026-01-31周六 57.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 56.5 对/日。","longRate":0.517506069344779,"carsAvg":12.14,"seatsAvg":910.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.48249393065522095},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.517506069344779}],"trainKm":10646234,"carKm":129245793,"seatKm":9693434482},"dem":{"load":0.4803,"loadLo":0.368,"loadHi":0.6269,"prior":0.4803,"pkm":4655633716,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44000000000000006,"ratio":0.7080953527281363,"real":0.3116,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.708（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.00 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 56.53 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 258 公里 = 1,065 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.14 节/列 = 12,925 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 911 座/列 = 96.93 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.0% = 46.56 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.708 = 14.51 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 7.77 亿元\n线路维护 = 258 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.16 亿元\n折旧 = 258 公里 × 1.00 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.28 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.26 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 14.51 − 7.77 − 5.16 − 4.28 − 4.26 = -6.96 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"宁安十周年","url":"https://ah.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1209/c358428-41436337.html","note":"十年累计2.8亿，不是单年。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R088","name":"池黄高铁","km":125,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华东","via":"池州,黄山","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-9.6476,"lo":-12.0007,"hi":-7.9981,"opProfit":-3.069,"opLo":-4.5598,"opHi":-1.9109,"perKm":-771.81,"opPerKm":-245.52,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":1.6608,"emuCost":0.5177,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":15.84959349593496,"2025":19.426829268292682,"2026":16.195121951219512},"cost":{"train":0.9797,"infra":3.75,"dep":3.2993,"int":3.2794},"sup":{"qJul":16.195121951219512,"qJan":18.195121951219512,"qYear":16.876,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 16.2 对、2026-01-31周六 18.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 16.9 对/日。","longRate":0.06178313253012049,"carsAvg":8.513,"seatsAvg":593.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率6%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.9382168674698795},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.06178313253012049}],"trainKm":1539955,"carKm":13109329,"seatKm":914139571},"dem":{"load":0.442,"loadLo":0.3566,"loadHi":0.5477,"prior":0.442,"pkm":404016451,"kind":"curve","text":"池黄高铁开通首年（2024-04至2025-04）超300万人次（下界），旅游客流为主，alpha取0.6。 换算本线口径下界约28%，拟合曲线44%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"中新网 池黄一周年","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/cj/2025/04-26/10406278.shtml"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.6851036423591391,"real":0.4111,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.685（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.59 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 16.88 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 125 公里 = 154 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.51 节/列 = 1,311 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 594 座/列 = 9.14 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.2% = 4.04 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.685 = 1.66 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.8 元 = 0.98 亿元\n线路维护 = 125 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.75 亿元\n折旧 = 125 公里 × 1.59 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.30 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 3.28 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.66 − 0.98 − 3.75 − 3.30 − 3.28 = -9.65 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R089","name":"合安高铁","km":162,"speed":350,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"合肥,庐江,桐城,安庆","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.905,"lo":-14.6862,"hi":-8.1568,"opProfit":-1.5211,"opLo":-4.0835,"opHi":0.6939,"perKm":-673.15,"opPerKm":-93.9,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.175,"rev":6.3167,"emuCost":1.5975,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":14.006172839506172,"2022":19.814814814814813,"2023":21.320987654320987,"2024":27.864197530864196,"2025":27.617283950617285,"2026":33.617283950617285},"cost":{"train":2.9779,"infra":4.86,"dep":4.7061,"int":4.6778},"sup":{"qJul":33.617283950617285,"qJan":36.617283950617285,"qYear":34.452,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 33.6 对、2026-01-31周六 36.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 34.5 对/日。","longRate":0.23237128167462356,"carsAvg":9.929,"seatsAvg":700.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率23%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7676287183253765},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.23237128167462356}],"trainKm":4074345,"carKm":40452878,"seatKm":2852987201},"dem":{"load":0.5408,"loadLo":0.4533,"loadHi":0.6452,"prior":0.5408,"pkm":1542865734,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7443927532117038,"real":0.4094,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.744（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.75 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 34.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 162 公里 = 407 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.93 节/列 = 4,045 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 700 座/列 = 28.53 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.1% = 15.43 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.744 = 6.32 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.0 元 = 2.98 亿元\n线路维护 = 162 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.86 亿元\n折旧 = 162 公里 × 1.75 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.71 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 4.68 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.32 − 2.98 − 4.86 − 4.71 − 4.68 = -10.90 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R090","name":"安九高铁","km":176,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"华东","via":"安庆,潜山,宿松,九江","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-11.06,"lo":-15.4464,"hi":-7.7165,"opProfit":-0.5739,"opLo":-3.6194,"opHi":2.0898,"perKm":-628.41,"opPerKm":-32.61,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.374,"rev":8.4228,"emuCost":2.0358,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":21.339285714285715,"2023":26.029761904761905,"2024":31.797619047619047,"2025":32.69047619047619,"2026":33.01190476190476},"cost":{"train":3.7167,"infra":5.28,"dep":5.2589,"int":5.2272},"sup":{"qJul":33.01190476190476,"qJan":30.976190476190474,"qYear":31.329,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 33.0 对、2026-01-31周六 31.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 31.3 对/日。","longRate":0.5792378290659935,"carsAvg":12.808,"seatsAvg":917.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率58%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.4207621709340065},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5792378290659935}],"trainKm":4025114,"carKm":51552348,"seatKm":3691124683},"dem":{"load":0.5335,"loadLo":0.4459,"loadHi":0.6383,"prior":0.5335,"pkm":1969069912,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计53%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.578052899296257,"ratio":0.7399958997170092,"real":0.4278,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.58 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.740（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.80 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 31.33 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 176 公里 = 403 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.81 节/列 = 5,155 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 917 座/列 = 36.91 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.3% = 19.69 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.578 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.740 = 8.42 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.4 元 = 3.72 亿元\n线路维护 = 176 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.28 亿元\n折旧 = 176 公里 × 1.80 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.26 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 5.23 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.42 − 3.72 − 5.28 − 5.26 − 5.23 = -11.06 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R091","name":"商合杭商合段","km":378,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华中-华东","via":"商丘,亳州,阜阳,淮南,合肥","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.4798,"lo":-14.4473,"hi":10.043,"opProfit":13.0348,"opLo":1.9608,"opHi":23.5086,"perKm":-65.6,"opPerKm":344.84,"pProb":0.373,"pProbOp":0.934,"rev":40.7526,"emuCost":8.9429,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":44.0,"2021":57.98,"2022":54.23,"2023":57.49,"2024":63.41,"2025":67.35,"2026":70.58},"cost":{"train":16.3778,"infra":11.34,"dep":7.7808,"int":7.7339},"sup":{"qJul":70.58,"qJan":65.93,"qYear":66.832,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 70.6 对、2026-01-31周六 65.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 66.8 对/日。","longRate":0.5156413998299801,"carsAvg":12.28,"seatsAvg":877.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.48435860017001986},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5156413998299801}],"trainKm":18441560,"carKm":226459104,"seatKm":16178335678},"dem":{"load":0.5912,"loadLo":0.5052,"loadHi":0.6918,"prior":0.5912,"pkm":9565031740,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计59%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7746505395158731,"real":0.4261,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.775（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.24 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 66.83 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 378 公里 = 1,844 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.28 节/列 = 22,646 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 877 座/列 = 161.78 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 59.1% = 95.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.775 = 40.75 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 16.38 亿元\n线路维护 = 378 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 11.34 亿元\n折旧 = 378 公里 × 1.24 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.78 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 7.73 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 40.75 − 16.38 − 11.34 − 7.78 − 7.73 = -2.48 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R092","name":"商合杭合杭新建区段","km":254,"speed":350,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"合肥,芜湖,宣城,广德,湖州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.0302,"lo":-10.161,"hi":6.0994,"opProfit":8.3949,"opLo":0.9267,"opHi":15.3134,"perKm":-79.93,"opPerKm":330.51,"pProb":0.342,"pProbOp":0.931,"rev":26.8638,"emuCost":5.9451,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":32.46341463414634,"2021":38.36737804878049,"2022":35.17987804878049,"2023":43.66310975609756,"2024":53.21493902439025,"2025":63.47713414634146,"2026":66.3155487804878},"cost":{"train":10.8488,"infra":7.62,"dep":5.2283,"int":5.1968},"sup":{"qJul":66.3155487804878,"qJan":62.32012195121951,"qYear":62.982,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 66.3 对、2026-01-31周六 62.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 63.0 对/日。","longRate":0.5893455623750086,"carsAvg":12.892,"seatsAvg":923.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率59%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.41065443762499143},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5893455623750086}],"trainKm":11678036,"carKm":150548202,"seatKm":10782809507},"dem":{"load":0.5868,"loadLo":0.5006,"loadHi":0.6878,"prior":0.5868,"pkm":6327024551,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计59%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7719777522022011,"real":0.4246,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.772（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.24 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 62.98 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 254 公里 = 1,168 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.89 节/列 = 15,055 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 923 座/列 = 107.83 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 58.7% = 63.27 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.772 = 26.86 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.5 元 = 10.85 亿元\n线路维护 = 254 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.62 亿元\n折旧 = 254 公里 × 1.24 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.23 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 5.20 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 26.86 − 10.85 − 7.62 − 5.23 − 5.20 = -2.03 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"江苏铁路集团2025年中票募集说明书","url":"https://file.finance.sina.com.cn/211.154.219.97%3A9494/MRGG/BOND/2025/2025-4/2025-04-24/22280804.PDF","note":"沪宁、宁杭多项目公司，南沿江初期不足全年。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R093","name":"郑阜高铁","km":276,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华中-华东","via":"郑州,许昌,周口,阜阳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-11.7765,"lo":-19.2966,"hi":-5.6865,"opProfit":2.8404,"opLo":-3.4689,"opHi":8.5013,"perKm":-426.69,"opPerKm":102.91,"pProb":0.011,"pProbOp":0.703,"rev":19.5335,"emuCost":4.6088,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":23.202898550724637,"2021":35.08876811594203,"2022":29.295289855072465,"2023":33.29528985507246,"2024":40.76268115942029,"2025":42.46557971014493,"2026":47.21557971014493},"cost":{"train":8.4131,"infra":8.28,"dep":7.3306,"int":7.2864},"sup":{"qJul":47.21557971014493,"qJan":44.96557971014493,"qYear":45.141,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 47.2 对、2026-01-31周六 45.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.1 对/日。","longRate":0.5822017419330086,"carsAvg":12.832,"seatsAvg":918.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率58%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.41779825806699145},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5822017419330086}],"trainKm":9094937,"carKm":116708725,"seatKm":8357119931},"dem":{"load":0.5615,"loadLo":0.4744,"loadHi":0.6646,"prior":0.5615,"pkm":4692676813,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计56%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7568287099147916,"real":0.4163,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.757（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.60 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.14 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 276 公里 = 909 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.83 节/列 = 11,671 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 919 座/列 = 83.57 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.2% = 46.93 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.757 = 19.53 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.4 元 = 8.41 亿元\n线路维护 = 276 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.28 亿元\n折旧 = 276 公里 × 1.60 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.33 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 7.29 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 19.53 − 8.41 − 8.28 − 7.33 − 7.29 = -11.78 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R094","name":"合新高铁合泗段","km":198,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华东","via":"合肥,定远,明光,泗县","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.1769,"lo":-18.7765,"hi":-12.6665,"opProfit":-5.4118,"opLo":-7.7289,"opHi":-3.7102,"perKm":-766.51,"opPerKm":-273.32,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.2458,"emuCost":0.3766,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":7.903381642512077},"cost":{"train":0.7176,"infra":5.94,"dep":4.8973,"int":4.8678},"sup":{"qJul":7.903381642512077,"qJan":8.903381642512077,"qYear":8.248,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 7.9 对、2026-01-31周六 8.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 8.2 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":555.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":1.0},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":1192139,"carKm":9537112,"seatKm":661637166},"dem":{"load":0.3675,"loadLo":0.2882,"loadHi":0.4687,"prior":0.3675,"pkm":243154441,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计37%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7999999999999999,"ratio":0.6404328434539386,"real":0.5123,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.640（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.49 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 8.25 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 198 公里 = 119 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 954 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 555 座/列 = 6.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.8% = 2.43 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.640 = 1.25 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.72 亿元\n线路维护 = 198 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.94 亿元\n折旧 = 198 公里 × 1.49 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.90 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 4.87 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.25 − 0.72 − 5.94 − 4.90 − 4.87 = -15.18 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R095","name":"阜六铁路","km":162,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"华东","via":"阜阳,霍邱,六安","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":false,"profit":-9.194,"lo":-11.2715,"hi":-7.8098,"opProfit":-3.2955,"opLo":-4.5348,"opHi":-2.4036,"perKm":-567.53,"opPerKm":-203.43,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0525,"emuCost":0.0621,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.108,"infra":3.24,"dep":2.9581,"int":2.9403},"sup":{"qJul":2,"qJan":null,"qYear":1.91,"kind":"asm","text":"该线未进入知乎分段表，开行对数沿用前一版相似线路推算。 折算后 1.9 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":600.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":1.0},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":225877,"carKm":1807013,"seatKm":135525960},"dem":{"load":0.2442,"loadLo":0.1658,"loadHi":0.3598,"prior":0.2442,"pkm":33100720,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计24%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.28,"ratio":0.5664817418368511,"real":0.1586,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.28 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.566（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.10 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 1.91 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 162 公里 = 23 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 181 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 600 座/列 = 1.36 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 24.4% = 0.33 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.280 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.566 = 0.05 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.11 亿元\n线路维护 = 162 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.24 亿元\n折旧 = 162 公里 × 1.10 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 2.94 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.05 − 0.11 − 3.24 − 2.96 − 2.94 = -9.19 亿元","notes":["2026-09-30枚举12306全部C/D/G车次，未见经阜阳—霍邱—六安办客列车；不参与排名。","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。","开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R096","name":"淮萧客车联络线","km":27.1,"speed":250,"opened":"2017","region":"华东","via":"淮北,萧县","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.2609,"lo":-1.5633,"hi":-1.0468,"opProfit":-0.5343,"opLo":-0.7494,"opHi":-0.369,"perKm":-465.29,"opPerKm":-197.18,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1827,"emuCost":0.1016,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":6.0,"2019":6.0,"2020":5.0,"2021":11.0,"2022":9.0,"2023":9.0,"2024":10.0,"2025":10.0,"2026":11.0},"cost":{"train":0.1751,"infra":0.542,"dep":0.3644,"int":0.3622},"sup":{"qJul":11.0,"qJan":10.0,"qYear":10.277,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 11.0 对、2026-01-31周六 10.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 10.3 对/日。","longRate":0.818,"carsAvg":14.544,"seatsAvg":1090.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率82%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.18200000000000005},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.818}],"trainKm":203320,"carKm":2957083,"seatKm":221781219},"dem":{"load":0.3526,"loadLo":0.253,"loadHi":0.4914,"prior":0.3526,"pkm":78199993,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6314911170107401,"real":0.2337,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.631（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.81 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.28 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 27.1 公里 = 20 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.54 节/列 = 296 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1091 座/列 = 2.22 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.3% = 0.78 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.631 = 0.18 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 18.9 元 = 0.18 亿元\n线路维护 = 27.1 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.54 亿元\n折旧 = 27.1 公里 × 0.81 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.36 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 0.36 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.18 − 0.18 − 0.54 − 0.36 − 0.36 = -1.26 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"淮萧客车联络线开通","url":"https://www.cnr.cn/ah/news/20171229/t20171229_524080751.shtml","note":"新建27.1公里，不重复符夹线。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R097","name":"合福高铁","km":813,"speed":350,"opened":"2015","region":"华东","via":"合肥,无为,铜陵,绩溪,黄山,婺源,上饶,武夷山,南平,福州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-34.8568,"lo":-54.7094,"hi":-18.3413,"opProfit":1.7412,"opLo":-15.2625,"opHi":17.4769,"perKm":-428.74,"opPerKm":21.42,"pProb":0.007,"pProbOp":0.521,"rev":52.9627,"emuCost":14.6823,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":33.56435643564357,"2018":34.43069306930693,"2019":38.789603960396036,"2020":36.51732673267327,"2021":47.31002475247525,"2022":41.620049504950494,"2023":44.63490099009901,"2024":50.3279702970297,"2025":51.56559405940594,"2026":52.09467821782178},"cost":{"train":26.8315,"infra":24.39,"dep":18.3543,"int":18.2437},"sup":{"qJul":52.09467821782178,"qJan":49.14480198019802,"qYear":49.57,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 52.1 对、2026-01-31周六 49.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 49.6 对/日。","longRate":0.5587725010393776,"carsAvg":12.638,"seatsAvg":904.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率56%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.4412274989606224},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5587725010393776}],"trainKm":29419579,"carKm":371799106,"seatKm":26602148984},"dem":{"load":0.5687,"loadLo":0.4818,"loadHi":0.6712,"prior":0.5687,"pkm":15127415662,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计57%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.46,"ratio":0.7611095273531998,"real":0.3501,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.46 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.761（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 49.57 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 813 公里 = 2,942 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.64 节/列 = 37,180 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 904 座/列 = 266.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.9% = 151.27 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.460 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.761 = 52.96 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.3 元 = 26.83 亿元\n线路维护 = 813 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 24.39 亿元\n折旧 = 813 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 18.35 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 18.24 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 52.96 − 26.83 − 24.39 − 18.35 − 18.24 = -34.86 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"合福十周年","url":"https://www.xinhuanet.com/20250630/bde1bc5ebcc84073825e504a9e015748/c.html","note":"累计量用于量级参照，非现期客公里。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"PDF第71、160页：母公司和京福安徽组合财务。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R098","name":"昌景黄高铁","km":289,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华东","via":"南昌东,景德镇,黄山","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-17.5295,"lo":-24.3764,"hi":-12.1659,"opProfit":-0.9805,"opLo":-5.9976,"opHi":3.6887,"perKm":-606.56,"opPerKm":-33.93,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.36,"rev":13.8919,"emuCost":3.3688,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":15.715909090909092,"2025":31.704545454545453,"2026":37.003787878787875},"cost":{"train":6.2024,"infra":8.67,"dep":8.2995,"int":8.2495},"sup":{"qJul":37.920138888888886,"qJan":34.125,"qYear":35.255,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 37.9 对、2026-01-31周六 34.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 35.3 对/日。","longRate":0.4180354363153558,"carsAvg":11.47,"seatsAvg":816.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率42%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5819645636846442},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.4180354363153558}],"trainKm":7437680,"carKm":85307910,"seatKm":6071170693},"dem":{"load":0.5207,"loadLo":0.4331,"loadHi":0.6261,"prior":0.5207,"pkm":3161455018,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7323597312794075,"real":0.4394,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.732（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.73 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 35.25 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 289 公里 = 744 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.47 节/列 = 8,531 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 816 座/列 = 60.71 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.1% = 31.61 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.732 = 13.89 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 6.20 亿元\n线路维护 = 289 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.67 亿元\n折旧 = 289 公里 × 1.73 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.30 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 8.25 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.89 − 6.20 − 8.67 − 8.30 − 8.25 = -17.53 亿元","notes":["更正：qJul 由 37.003787878787875 改为 37.9201——独立审计：黄山—黟县属于昌景黄，原误归杭黄","更正：qJan 由 32.77272727272727 改为 34.125——独立审计：黄山—黟县属于昌景黄，原误归杭黄","更正：longRate 由 0.43419520933565364 改为 0.418——独立审计：黄山—黟县属于昌景黄，原误归杭黄","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R099","name":"黄黄高铁","km":125,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华中-华东","via":"黄冈,蕲春,黄梅","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-7.8442,"lo":-10.3185,"hi":-6.0668,"opProfit":-1.969,"opLo":-3.6881,"opHi":-0.4964,"perKm":-627.54,"opPerKm":-157.52,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.039,"rev":3.5623,"emuCost":0.9663,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":15.492125984251969,"2023":18.559055118110237,"2024":20.055118110236222,"2025":23.543307086614174,"2026":26.46062992125984},"cost":{"train":1.7812,"infra":3.75,"dep":2.9465,"int":2.9287},"sup":{"qJul":26.46062992125984,"qJan":22.070866141732285,"qYear":23.726,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 26.5 对、2026-01-31周六 22.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 23.7 对/日。","longRate":0.39792486237167085,"carsAvg":11.303,"seatsAvg":803.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率40%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6020751376283291},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.39792486237167085}],"trainKm":2164957,"carKm":24470030,"seatKm":1739982877},"dem":{"load":0.512,"loadLo":0.4244,"loadHi":0.6176,"prior":0.512,"pkm":890791272,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计51%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7270933177675815,"real":0.3999,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.727（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.42 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 23.73 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 125 公里 = 216 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.30 节/列 = 2,447 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 804 座/列 = 17.40 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.2% = 8.91 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.727 = 3.56 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.2 元 = 1.78 亿元\n线路维护 = 125 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.75 亿元\n折旧 = 125 公里 × 1.42 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.95 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 2.93 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.56 − 1.78 − 3.75 − 2.95 − 2.93 = -7.84 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R100","name":"杭黄高铁","km":265,"speed":250,"opened":"2018","region":"华东","via":"杭州,桐庐,建德,黄山","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-12.779,"lo":-17.9924,"hi":-8.1832,"opProfit":-1.0252,"opLo":-5.2312,"opHi":3.1264,"perKm":-482.23,"opPerKm":-38.69,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.352,"rev":11.0003,"emuCost":3.8372,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":28.111486486486488,"2020":25.1722972972973,"2021":26.94087837837838,"2022":23.33445945945946,"2023":23.510135135135137,"2024":34.498310810810814,"2025":48.80912162162162,"2026":49.53716216216216},"cost":{"train":6.7255,"infra":5.3,"dep":5.8947,"int":5.8592},"sup":{"qJul":49.67279411764706,"qJan":49.224264705882355,"qYear":48.454,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 49.7 对、2026-01-31周六 49.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 48.5 对/日。","longRate":0.4894296129080009,"carsAvg":11.915,"seatsAvg":893.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率49%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5105703870919991},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4894296129080009}],"trainKm":9373417,"carKm":111688359,"seatKm":8376626961},"dem":{"load":0.4684,"loadLo":0.3566,"loadHi":0.6151,"prior":0.4684,"pkm":3923366989,"kind":"curve","text":"杭黄铁路浙江段2025年旅客发送409.27万人次（只含浙江段车站，下界）。 换算本线口径下界约9%，拟合曲线47%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"浙江省交通投资集团评级报告/募集说明书（本项目债券检索 research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4,"ratio":0.7009461811161279,"real":0.2804,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.40 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.701（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.34 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 48.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 265 公里 = 937 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.92 节/列 = 11,169 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 894 座/列 = 83.77 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.8% = 39.23 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.400 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.701 = 11.00 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 6.73 亿元\n线路维护 = 265 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.30 亿元\n折旧 = 265 公里 × 1.34 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.89 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 5.86 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 11.00 − 6.73 − 5.30 − 5.89 − 5.86 = -12.78 亿元","notes":["更正：qJul 由 49.53716216216216 改为 49.6728——独立审计：移出黄山—黟县","更正：qJan 由 49.20608108108108 改为 49.2243——独立审计：移出黄山—黟县","更正：longRate 由 0.47305432039828144 改为 0.4894——独立审计：移出黄山—黟县","更正：fare 由 0.41366438241292447 改为 0.4——独立审计：移出黄山—黟县","更正：invPerKm 由 1.3716216216216217 改为 1.34——独立审计：移出黄山—黟县","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"上铁集团：长三角旅游计次票","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32061024","note":"2025-11-27起，宁杭、沪苏湖、杭温、杭黄、沪宁城际组合票；不能假设所有乘客按全价。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R101","name":"既有沪杭高铁","km":160,"speed":350,"opened":"2010","region":"华东","via":"上海,嘉兴,海宁,杭州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":26.2687,"lo":13.2218,"hi":38.8343,"opProfit":32.8783,"opLo":19.7347,"opHi":45.4811,"perKm":1641.79,"opPerKm":2054.89,"pProb":0.995,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":57.0664,"emuCost":10.7431,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":134.0,"2018":138.0,"2019":147.5566037735849,"2020":139.43396226415095,"2021":149.00943396226415,"2022":121.50943396226415,"2023":151.00943396226415,"2024":154.00943396226415,"2025":155.5566037735849,"2026":161.0566037735849},"cost":{"train":19.3881,"infra":4.8,"dep":4.5152,"int":2.0944},"sup":{"qJul":161.0566037735849,"qJan":151.5566037735849,"qYear":153.062,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 161.1 对、2026-01-31周六 151.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 153.1 对/日。","longRate":0.8695313964386129,"carsAvg":15.217,"seatsAvg":1098.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率87%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.13046860356138712},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.8695313964386129}],"trainKm":17877609,"carKm":272045555,"seatKm":19637787048},"dem":{"load":0.6516,"loadLo":0.5699,"loadHi":0.745,"prior":0.6516,"pkm":12795827795,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计65%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.8108670633236517,"real":0.446,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.811（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.70 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 23% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 153.06 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 160 公里 = 1,788 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.22 节/列 = 27,205 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1098 座/列 = 196.38 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 65.2% = 127.96 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.811 = 57.07 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.4 元 = 19.39 亿元\n线路维护 = 160 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.80 亿元\n折旧 = 160 公里 × 1.70 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.52 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 23%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 2.09 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 57.07 − 19.39 − 4.80 − 4.52 − 2.09 = +26.27 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"沪杭：12306票价公告 2024-05-02","url":"https://www.12306.cn/mormhweb/zxdt/202405/t20240502_41893.html","note":"登记160公里为约数，发改委答复给上海经嘉兴杭州运营159公里；可作近似尺度核查，不能把87/160当年度成交收益率。 公布价与最低价均非年度成交均价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R102","name":"杭甬高铁","km":150,"speed":350,"opened":"2013","region":"华东","via":"杭州,绍兴,余姚,宁波","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":11.6697,"lo":3.9871,"hi":19.3599,"opProfit":16.0682,"opLo":8.512,"opHi":23.8434,"perKm":777.98,"opPerKm":1071.21,"pProb":0.973,"pProbOp":0.999,"rev":32.3789,"emuCost":6.5391,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":92.77741935483871,"2018":93.77741935483871,"2019":99.27741935483871,"2020":90.0,"2021":103.0,"2022":94.35483870967742,"2023":101.12903225806451,"2024":101.40645161290323,"2025":103.87741935483871,"2026":104.70967741935483},"cost":{"train":11.8107,"infra":4.5,"dep":2.8137,"int":1.5848},"sup":{"qJul":104.70967741935483,"qJan":100.87741935483871,"qYear":100.69,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 104.7 对、2026-01-31周六 100.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 100.7 对/日。","longRate":0.8456105976586569,"carsAvg":15.019,"seatsAvg":1083.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率85%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.15438940234134313},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.8456105976586569}],"trainKm":11025530,"carKm":165587676,"seatKm":11946235080},"dem":{"load":0.6216,"loadLo":0.5374,"loadHi":0.7189,"prior":0.6216,"pkm":7425239561,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计62%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5499999999999999,"ratio":0.7928466068989458,"real":0.4361,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.793（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.13 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 28% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 100.69 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 150 公里 = 1,103 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.02 节/列 = 16,559 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1084 座/列 = 119.46 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 62.2% = 74.25 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.793 = 32.38 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.3 元 = 11.81 亿元\n线路维护 = 150 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.50 亿元\n折旧 = 150 公里 × 1.13 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.81 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 28%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.58 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 32.38 − 11.81 − 4.50 − 2.81 − 1.58 = +11.67 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"杭甬：12306票价公告 2024-05-02","url":"https://www.12306.cn/mormhweb/zxdt/202405/t20240502_41889.html","note":"登记150公里为工程约数；杭州东/杭州南、庄桥/宁波不同OD表价不同。未获得同期12306计价里程表，不做精确除法。 公布价与最低价均非年度成交均价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R103","name":"湖杭高铁","km":137.8,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华东","via":"湖州,德清,杭州西,富阳西,桐庐东","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":0.9258,"lo":-6.0574,"hi":6.7909,"opProfit":11.3709,"opLo":5.1613,"opHi":17.2239,"perKm":67.18,"opPerKm":825.17,"pProb":0.529,"pProbOp":0.996,"rev":24.6859,"emuCost":5.003,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":22.232558139534884,"2024":36.26744186046512,"2025":100.69767441860465,"2026":110.02325581395348},"cost":{"train":9.181,"infra":4.134,"dep":5.2383,"int":5.2068},"sup":{"qJul":110.02325581395348,"qJan":105.0813953488372,"qYear":105.34,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 110.0 对、2026-01-31周六 105.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 105.3 对/日。","longRate":0.4765960684844641,"carsAvg":11.956,"seatsAvg":852.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率48%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5234039315155359},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.4765960684844641}],"trainKm":10596522,"carKm":126689343,"seatKm":9037482874},"dem":{"load":0.6248,"loadLo":0.5409,"loadHi":0.7218,"prior":0.6248,"pkm":5647005105,"kind":"curve","text":"湖杭铁路2025年旅客发送1528.45万人次（浙江交投披露，只计本线各站上车）。湖杭与沪苏湖构成上海—杭州第二通道，日开行约136对，大量上海—杭州直通旅客不在湖杭各站上车，发送量明显低估本线客流，只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约17%，拟合曲线62%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"浙江省交通投资集团评级报告/募集说明书（本项目债券检索 research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.794819135705456,"real":0.4372,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.795（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.29 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 105.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 137.8 公里 = 1,060 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.96 节/列 = 12,669 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 853 座/列 = 90.37 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 62.5% = 56.47 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.795 = 24.69 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 9.18 亿元\n线路维护 = 137.8 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.13 亿元\n折旧 = 137.8 公里 × 2.29 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.24 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 5.21 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 24.69 − 9.18 − 4.13 − 5.24 − 5.21 = +0.93 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R104","name":"杭衢高铁","km":131,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华东","via":"建德,衢州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.5336,"lo":-13.3121,"hi":-8.5672,"opProfit":-2.7286,"opLo":-4.368,"opHi":-1.4146,"perKm":-804.09,"opPerKm":-208.29,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.006,"rev":2.292,"emuCost":0.592,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":17.0},"cost":{"train":1.0906,"infra":3.93,"dep":3.9143,"int":3.8907},"sup":{"qJul":13.85483870967742,"qJan":14.25,"qYear":13.776,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 13.9 对、2026-01-31周六 14.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 13.8 对/日。","longRate":0.4070966239813737,"carsAvg":11.379,"seatsAvg":809.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率41%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5929033760186263},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.4070966239813737}],"trainKm":1317429,"carKm":14990891,"seatKm":1066373310},"dem":{"load":0.4052,"loadLo":0.3224,"loadHi":0.5093,"prior":0.4052,"pkm":432098642,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计41%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.8,"ratio":0.6630502087979512,"real":0.5304,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.663（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.80 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 131 公里 = 132 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.38 节/列 = 1,499 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 809 座/列 = 10.66 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.5% = 4.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.663 = 2.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.2 元 = 1.09 亿元\n线路维护 = 131 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.93 亿元\n折旧 = 131 公里 × 1.80 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.91 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 3.89 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.29 − 1.09 − 3.93 − 3.91 − 3.89 = -10.53 亿元","notes":["更正：qJul 由 17.0 改为 13.8548——独立审计：补入衢州—江山段（原未被任何线路使用）","更正：qJan 由 17.5 改为 14.25——独立审计：补入衢州—江山段（原未被任何线路使用）","更正：longRate 由 0.41200000000000003 改为 0.4071——独立审计：补入衢州—江山段（原未被任何线路使用）"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R105","name":"杭温高铁","km":276,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华东","via":"桐庐,义乌,横店,仙居,温州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-16.1639,"lo":-22.6902,"hi":-9.7038,"opProfit":0.7037,"opLo":-3.958,"opHi":6.3479,"perKm":-585.65,"opPerKm":25.5,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.62,"rev":15.7202,"emuCost":3.6837,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":36.36015325670498,"2026":39.98850574712644},"cost":{"train":6.7365,"infra":8.28,"dep":8.4593,"int":8.4083},"sup":{"qJul":39.98850574712644,"qJan":35.582375478927204,"qYear":36.975,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 40.0 对、2026-01-31周六 35.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.0 对/日。","longRate":0.5447882533295008,"carsAvg":12.522,"seatsAvg":895.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率54%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.45521174667049924},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5447882533295008}],"trainKm":7449654,"carKm":93282643,"seatKm":6671110038},"dem":{"load":0.5025,"loadLo":0.415,"loadHi":0.6084,"prior":0.5025,"pkm":3352344527,"kind":"curve","text":"杭温高铁开通首年（2024-09至2025-09）超1600万人次（下界）；次年开行增加，增长按8%，alpha取0.55。 换算本线口径下界约47%，拟合曲线50%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"上观新闻 杭温一周年","url":"https://www.shobserver.cn/wx/detail.do?id=978044"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.7214315560568625,"real":0.4689,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.721（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.85 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 36.97 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 276 公里 = 745 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.52 节/列 = 9,328 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 895 座/列 = 66.71 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.3% = 33.52 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.721 = 15.72 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 6.74 亿元\n线路维护 = 276 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.28 亿元\n折旧 = 276 公里 × 1.85 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.46 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 8.41 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 15.72 − 6.74 − 8.28 − 8.46 − 8.41 = -16.16 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"杭温首年1600万人次","url":"https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2025-09/06/content_396390.html","note":"最高96列＝48对。"},{"title":"上铁集团：长三角旅游计次票","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_32061024","note":"2025-11-27起，宁杭、沪苏湖、杭温、杭黄、沪宁城际组合票；不能假设所有乘客按全价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R106","name":"杭台高铁新建段","km":226,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华东","via":"绍兴,天台,台州,温岭","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.7206,"lo":-16.1189,"hi":-6.2153,"opProfit":1.6224,"opLo":-2.6816,"opHi":5.4802,"perKm":-474.36,"opPerKm":71.79,"pProb":0.002,"pProbOp":0.67,"rev":14.5146,"emuCost":3.3906,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":17.782511210762333,"2023":23.289237668161434,"2024":27.739910313901344,"2025":32.15470852017937,"2026":35.59417040358744},"cost":{"train":6.1122,"infra":6.78,"dep":6.1901,"int":6.1528},"sup":{"qJul":35.59417040358744,"qJan":33.02017937219731,"qYear":33.589,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 35.6 对、2026-01-31周六 33.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 33.6 对/日。","longRate":0.9028684094488189,"carsAvg":15.494,"seatsAvg":1119.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率90%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.09713159055118115},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.9028684094488189}],"trainKm":5541490,"carKm":85858774,"seatKm":6202549105},"dem":{"load":0.562,"loadLo":0.4847,"loadHi":0.6515,"prior":0.5388,"pkm":3485680011,"kind":"der","text":"杭台高铁第三年（2024-01至2025-01）约2500万人次，alpha取0.55；2023年7月绍台段暑运客座率90.1%只是峰值。 换算本线口径约64%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.20）；与拟合曲线54%按精度合并（本线证据权重23%）。","evidence":[{"text":"新华社 杭台高铁三周年","url":"https://www.news.cn/politics/20250113/003ce8737f644fd2bee94e"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5500000000000002,"ratio":0.7571028653560702,"real":0.4164,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.757（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.65 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 33.59 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 226 公里 = 554 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.49 节/列 = 8,586 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1119 座/列 = 62.03 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.2% = 34.86 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.757 = 14.51 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.7 元 = 6.11 亿元\n线路维护 = 226 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 6.78 亿元\n折旧 = 226 公里 × 1.65 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.19 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 6.15 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 14.51 − 6.11 − 6.78 − 6.19 − 6.15 = -10.72 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"杭台清算收入与盈利情况","url":"https://www.nbd.com.cn/articles/2025-05-21/3883095.html","note":"2024清算收入超过8亿元仍未盈利，没有具体亏损披露。"},{"title":"中国发展改革报社：杭台高铁业主访谈（2026）","url":"https://www.cibexpo.org.cn/xwdt/3336.jhtml","note":"2025运客3500万人；2026年7月日常37对。报道全线266.9公里，本登记新建226公里。"},{"title":"杭绍台项目预算","url":"https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2019/04-26/8821488.shtml","note":"448.9亿元预算；PPP补偿和摊销需另核。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R107","name":"杭台高铁温玉段","km":37,"speed":350,"opened":"2026-08-08","region":"华东","via":"温岭,玉环","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.7039,"lo":-3.3299,"hi":-2.2802,"opProfit":-1.1118,"opLo":-1.5416,"opHi":-0.7961,"perKm":-730.78,"opPerKm":-300.48,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1224,"emuCost":0.0652,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.1242,"infra":1.11,"dep":0.7985,"int":0.7937},"sup":{"qJul":8,"qJan":null,"qYear":7.64,"kind":"der","text":"初期16列；模拟随后持续12个月，不是2026开通年全年。 折算后 7.6 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":555.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":1.0},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":206356,"carKm":1650851,"seatKm":114527802},"dem":{"load":0.342,"loadLo":0.2656,"loadHi":0.4405,"prior":0.342,"pkm":39169250,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计34%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6251358683879263,"real":0.3126,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.625（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约0年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 7.64 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 37 公里 = 21 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 165 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 555 座/列 = 1.15 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 34.2% = 0.39 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.625 = 0.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.12 亿元\n线路维护 = 37 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 1.11 亿元\n折旧 = 37 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.80 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通0年）× 3.3% = 0.79 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.12 − 0.12 − 1.11 − 0.80 − 0.79 = -2.70 亿元","notes":["开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"台州日报：温玉段正式开通","url":"https://zj.people.com.cn/n2/2026/0808/c186327-41662691.html","note":"2026-08-08开通，新建正线约37公里；统一使用约37公里，不伪称精确产权长度。"},{"title":"温玉铁路开通","url":"https://www.news.cn/local/20260808/a5663441ad114addae4194edb5705d7a/c.html","note":"37.6公里，16列／日即8对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R108","name":"金建高铁兰建段","km":44,"speed":250,"opened":"2026","region":"华东","via":"兰溪,建德","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-3.5784,"lo":-4.4095,"hi":-3.0283,"opProfit":-0.884,"opLo":-1.2187,"opHi":-0.6427,"perKm":-813.27,"opPerKm":-200.92,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0269,"emuCost":0.0169,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":2.0},"cost":{"train":0.0309,"infra":0.88,"dep":1.3512,"int":1.3431},"sup":{"qJul":2.0,"qJan":0.0,"qYear":1.91,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 2.0 对（1月尚未开通或极少），全年日均 = 0.95×7月 = 1.9 对/日，按开通后满12个月计。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":600.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":1.0},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":61349,"carKm":490794,"seatKm":36809520},"dem":{"load":0.1854,"loadLo":0.1221,"loadHi":0.2815,"prior":0.1854,"pkm":6823748,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计19%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7,"ratio":0.5624388055223684,"real":0.3937,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.70 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.562（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.85 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约0年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 1.91 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 44 公里 = 6 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 49 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 600 座/列 = 0.37 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 18.5% = 0.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.700 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.562 = 0.03 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.03 亿元\n线路维护 = 44 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.88 亿元\n折旧 = 44 公里 × 1.85 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.35 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通0年）× 3.3% = 1.34 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.03 − 0.03 − 0.88 − 1.35 − 1.34 = -3.58 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"金建兰建段先期开通","url":"https://www.news.cn/local/20260214/701111e5e5274884bfef6d7c4aed472e/c.html","note":"2026-02-14先开44公里，4列即2对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R109","name":"金温新双线","km":188,"speed":250,"opened":"2015","region":"华东","via":"金华,永康,丽水,温州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.5295,"lo":-12.1315,"hi":-5.5239,"opProfit":-2.6178,"opLo":-5.6912,"opHi":0.273,"perKm":-453.7,"opPerKm":-139.25,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.123,"rev":7.4828,"emuCost":3.6849,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":34.5,"2018":43.35204081632653,"2019":49.85204081632653,"2020":45.85204081632653,"2021":52.494897959183675,"2022":51.494897959183675,"2023":50.20918367346939,"2024":54.70918367346939,"2025":54.20918367346939,"2026":53.83673469387755},"cost":{"train":6.3406,"infra":3.76,"dep":2.9648,"int":2.9469},"sup":{"qJul":53.83673469387755,"qJan":53.83673469387755,"qYear":52.76,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 53.8 对、2026-01-31周六 53.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 52.8 对/日。","longRate":0.8515750568612585,"carsAvg":14.813,"seatsAvg":1110.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率85%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.14842494313874155},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.8515750568612585}],"trainKm":7240782,"carKm":107254817,"seatKm":8044111250},"dem":{"load":0.3859,"loadLo":0.2992,"loadHi":0.4978,"prior":0.475,"pkm":3104294506,"kind":"der","text":"金丽温铁路2025年旅客发送1425.67万人次（浙江交投披露），alpha取0.6。 换算本线口径约24%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.20）；与拟合曲线47%按精度合并（本线证据权重35%）。","evidence":[{"text":"浙江省交通投资集团评级报告/募集说明书（本项目债券检索 research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6514744867679562,"real":0.241,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.651（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.95 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 52.76 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 188 公里 = 724 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.81 节/列 = 10,725 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1111 座/列 = 80.44 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.6% = 31.04 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.651 = 7.48 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 19.1 元 = 6.34 亿元\n线路维护 = 188 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.76 亿元\n折旧 = 188 公里 × 0.95 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 2.95 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 7.48 − 6.34 − 3.76 − 2.96 − 2.95 = -8.53 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R110","name":"衢宁铁路","km":379,"speed":160,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"衢州,遂昌,松阳,庆元,福安,宁德","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-21.5648,"lo":-26.4495,"hi":-18.2935,"opProfit":-7.7654,"opLo":-10.6905,"opHi":-5.7054,"perKm":-568.99,"opPerKm":-204.89,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.4195,"emuCost":0.3676,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.6049,"infra":7.58,"dep":6.9205,"int":6.8789},"sup":{"qJul":4.5,"qJan":null,"qYear":4.297,"kind":"der","text":"9列仅宁德至松溪段；用于低频客货混用条件情景，非全线实际。 折算后 4.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9,"seatsAvg":720.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：13列全为CR200J。","mix":[{"cars":9,"seats":720,"share":1,"label":"CR200J短编组"}],"trainKm":1188989,"carKm":10700904,"seatKm":856072314},"dem":{"load":0.2936,"loadLo":0.2044,"loadHi":0.4217,"prior":0.2936,"pkm":251325056,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计29%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.28,"ratio":0.5960826863424264,"real":0.1669,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.28 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.596（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.10 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 4.30 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 379 公里 = 119 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.00 节/列 = 1,070 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 720 座/列 = 8.56 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 29.4% = 2.51 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.280 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.596 = 0.42 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.07 元 + 列车公里 × 14.2 元 = 0.60 亿元\n线路维护 = 379 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.58 亿元\n折旧 = 379 公里 × 1.10 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.92 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 6.88 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.42 − 0.60 − 7.58 − 6.92 − 6.88 = -21.56 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。","开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"闽北日报原采：衢宁铁路运营五年","url":"https://www.fjscnews.com/2025-10/28/content_2273652.htm","note":"宁德至松溪段现期9趟客车，属于局部区段服务近似，不代表382公里统一实开。"},{"title":"国务院国资委／中国中铁：衢宁铁路开通","url":"https://wap.sasac.gov.cn/n2588025/n2588124/c15550038/content.html","note":"2020-09-28原文全长约379公里、设计160公里/小时；纠正原登记382公里/200公里级，移入L附录。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R111","name":"衢九铁路","km":333,"speed":200,"opened":"2017","region":"华东","via":"衢州,婺源,景德镇,都昌,九江","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-14.1369,"lo":-18.2058,"hi":-10.999,"opProfit":-5.4293,"opLo":-8.6099,"opHi":-2.6921,"perKm":-424.53,"opPerKm":-163.04,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.005,"rev":5.0666,"emuCost":2.3322,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":9.032934131736527,"2019":13.353293413173652,"2020":10.422155688622755,"2021":12.559880239520957,"2022":12.230538922155688,"2023":13.238023952095809,"2024":10.997005988023952,"2025":11.429640718562874,"2026":24.384730538922156},"cost":{"train":3.8359,"infra":6.66,"dep":4.367,"int":4.3407},"sup":{"qJul":24.384730538922156,"qJan":19.09431137724551,"qYear":21.239,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 24.4 对、2026-01-31周六 19.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 21.2 对/日。","longRate":0.6435437411750261,"carsAvg":13.148,"seatsAvg":986.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率64%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.3564562588249739},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6435437411750261}],"trainKm":5162891,"carKm":67883502,"seatKm":5091262656},"dem":{"load":0.4055,"loadLo":0.299,"loadHi":0.55,"prior":0.4055,"pkm":2064628710,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计41%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6632421805266057,"real":0.2454,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.663（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.79 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 21.24 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 333 公里 = 516 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.15 节/列 = 6,788 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 986 座/列 = 50.91 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.6% = 20.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.663 = 5.07 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.7 元 = 3.84 亿元\n线路维护 = 333 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.66 亿元\n折旧 = 333 公里 × 0.79 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.37 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 4.34 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.07 − 3.84 − 6.66 − 4.37 − 4.34 = -14.14 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R112","name":"甬台温铁路","km":282,"speed":250,"opened":"2009","region":"华东","via":"宁波,台州,温岭,温州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":2.0586,"lo":-7.6566,"hi":9.5879,"opProfit":5.9431,"opLo":-1.8714,"opHi":13.6625,"perKm":73.0,"opPerKm":210.75,"pProb":0.536,"pProbOp":0.825,"rev":23.3956,"emuCost":6.8253,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":66.60545454545455,"2018":66.11818181818182,"2019":78.28,"2020":70.33272727272727,"2021":75.96181818181819,"2022":63.372727272727275,"2023":70.21272727272728,"2024":72.64727272727272,"2025":70.68181818181819,"2026":73.38181818181818},"cost":{"train":11.8125,"infra":5.64,"dep":2.7151,"int":1.1695},"sup":{"qJul":73.38181818181818,"qJan":69.76363636363637,"qYear":70.096,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 73.4 对、2026-01-31周六 69.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 70.1 对/日。","longRate":0.7209201189296333,"carsAvg":13.767,"seatsAvg":1032.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率72%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.27907988107036674},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.7209201189296333}],"trainKm":14429972,"carKm":198662632,"seatKm":14899697393},"dem":{"load":0.497,"loadLo":0.384,"loadHi":0.6432,"prior":0.497,"pkm":7404552631,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.43999999999999995,"ratio":0.7180978298138755,"real":0.316,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.718（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.58 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 22% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 70.10 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 282 公里 = 1,443 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.77 节/列 = 19,866 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1033 座/列 = 149.00 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.7% = 74.05 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.718 = 23.40 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 18.2 元 = 11.81 亿元\n线路维护 = 282 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.64 亿元\n折旧 = 282 公里 × 0.58 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.72 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 22%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 1.17 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 23.40 − 11.81 − 5.64 − 2.72 − 1.17 = +2.06 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R113","name":"温福铁路","km":298,"speed":250,"opened":"2009","region":"华东","via":"温州,瑞安,福鼎,福安,宁德,福州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":4.5371,"lo":-4.6626,"hi":11.1801,"opProfit":8.7836,"opLo":1.5089,"opHi":15.4446,"perKm":152.25,"opPerKm":294.75,"pProb":0.684,"pProbOp":0.942,"rev":26.5845,"emuCost":6.8115,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":47.474489795918366,"2018":49.25170068027211,"2019":52.63095238095238,"2020":42.29421768707483,"2021":52.19047619047619,"2022":47.93707482993197,"2023":55.534013605442176,"2024":56.76190476190476,"2025":68.13095238095238,"2026":73.88265306122449},"cost":{"train":11.8409,"infra":5.96,"dep":2.9681,"int":1.2784},"sup":{"qJul":73.88265306122449,"qJan":68.66496598639456,"qYear":69.783,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 73.9 对、2026-01-31周六 68.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 69.8 对/日。","longRate":0.6325175747531248,"carsAvg":13.06,"seatsAvg":979.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率63%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.36748242524687524},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6325175747531248}],"trainKm":15180618,"carKm":198261009,"seatKm":14869575641},"dem":{"load":0.5443,"loadLo":0.4535,"loadHi":0.6532,"prior":0.4966,"pkm":8093640627,"kind":"der","text":"温福约2016–17年客运密度约2000万人公里/公里（世行报告图读）；按2017年7月开行与现座位折算当年客座率，作为现期弱证据。 换算本线口径约62%；与拟合曲线50%按精度合并（本线证据权重39%）。","evidence":[{"text":"世界银行2019《中国高速铁路发展》图读客运密度（约2016–17年）","url":"https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/933411559841476316/pdf/Chinas-High-Speed-Rail-Development.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.43999999999999995,"ratio":0.7465040488827286,"real":0.3285,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.747（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.60 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 22% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 69.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 298 公里 = 1,518 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.06 节/列 = 19,826 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 980 座/列 = 148.70 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.4% = 80.94 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.747 = 26.58 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.6 元 = 11.84 亿元\n线路维护 = 298 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.96 亿元\n折旧 = 298 公里 × 0.60 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.97 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 22%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 1.28 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 26.58 − 11.84 − 5.96 − 2.97 − 1.28 = +4.54 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R114","name":"既有福厦铁路","km":276,"speed":250,"opened":"2010","region":"华东","via":"福州,莆田,泉州,厦门","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":9.2721,"lo":-0.31,"hi":17.341,"opProfit":12.7596,"opLo":4.4491,"opHi":20.9874,"perKm":335.95,"opPerKm":462.31,"pProb":0.897,"pProbOp":0.978,"rev":32.2901,"emuCost":8.0174,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":111.71238938053098,"2018":113.83185840707965,"2019":109.78761061946902,"2020":96.92477876106194,"2021":114.34513274336283,"2022":112.24557522123894,"2023":116.84955752212389,"2024":86.79646017699115,"2025":94.36725663716814,"2026":101.21681415929204},"cost":{"train":14.0104,"infra":5.52,"dep":2.3824,"int":1.1051},"sup":{"qJul":101.21681415929204,"qJan":91.09734513274336,"qYear":94.107,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 101.2 对、2026-01-31周六 91.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 94.1 对/日。","longRate":0.5384461857923497,"carsAvg":12.308,"seatsAvg":923.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率54%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4615538142076503},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5384461857923497}],"trainKm":18960768,"carKm":233360969,"seatKm":17502072685},"dem":{"load":0.5563,"loadLo":0.4658,"loadHi":0.6644,"prior":0.5198,"pkm":9736717010,"kind":"der","text":"福厦（既有）约2016–17年客运密度约4400万人公里/公里（世行报告图读）；按2017年7月开行与现座位折算当年客座率，作为现期弱证据。 换算本线口径约61%；与拟合曲线52%按精度合并（本线证据权重39%）。","evidence":[{"text":"世界银行2019《中国高速铁路发展》图读客运密度（约2016–17年）","url":"https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/933411559841476316/pdf/Chinas-High-Speed-Rail-Development.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.75370875854504,"real":0.3316,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.754（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 23% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 94.11 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 276 公里 = 1,896 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.31 节/列 = 23,336 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 923 座/列 = 175.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 55.6% = 97.37 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.754 = 32.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 14.01 亿元\n线路维护 = 276 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.52 亿元\n折旧 = 276 公里 × 0.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.38 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 23%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 1.11 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 32.29 − 14.01 − 5.52 − 2.38 − 1.11 = +9.27 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R115","name":"新福厦高铁","km":277,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华东","via":"福州,莆田,泉州,厦门,漳州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.4962,"lo":-16.1981,"hi":1.7409,"opProfit":10.2825,"opLo":2.0707,"opHi":18.2721,"perKm":-234.52,"opPerKm":371.21,"pProb":0.148,"pProbOp":0.945,"rev":30.5334,"emuCost":6.5644,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":53.76923076923077,"2025":53.69230769230769,"2026":60.80769230769231},"cost":{"train":11.941,"infra":8.31,"dep":8.4147,"int":8.364},"sup":{"qJul":60.80769230769231,"qJan":63.53846153846154,"qYear":60.964,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 60.8 对、2026-01-31周六 63.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 61.0 对/日。","longRate":0.6607900063251108,"carsAvg":13.485,"seatsAvg":968.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率66%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.33920999367488924},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6607900063251108}],"trainKm":12327480,"carKm":166230606,"seatKm":11932923533},"dem":{"load":0.5629,"loadLo":0.4758,"loadHi":0.6659,"prior":0.5629,"pkm":6716759267,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计56%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.757643317752611,"real":0.4546,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.758（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.83 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 60.96 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 277 公里 = 1,233 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.48 节/列 = 16,623 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 968 座/列 = 119.33 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.3% = 67.17 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.758 = 30.53 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.0 元 = 11.94 亿元\n线路维护 = 277 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 8.31 亿元\n折旧 = 277 公里 × 1.83 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.41 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 8.36 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 30.53 − 11.94 − 8.31 − 8.41 − 8.36 = -6.50 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"新福厦高铁工程信息","url":"https://www.fujian.gov.cn/zwgk/ztzl/gjcjgxgg/xld/202309/t20230929_6267480.htm","note":"277公里、530.4亿元预算，无单线利润。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R116","name":"厦深铁路","km":502,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华东-华南","via":"厦门,漳州,饶平,潮汕,汕尾,惠州,深圳北","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":16.9184,"lo":-7.947,"hi":38.0982,"opProfit":27.7308,"opLo":6.4675,"opHi":49.0651,"perKm":337.02,"opPerKm":552.41,"pProb":0.806,"pProbOp":0.954,"rev":69.7271,"emuCost":18.3632,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":84.95038910505836,"2018":87.95719844357977,"2019":97.42412451361868,"2020":90.13424124513618,"2021":89.55739299610894,"2022":81.95428015564202,"2023":112.80836575875486,"2024":109.29669260700389,"2025":111.98443579766537,"2026":116.28307392996109},"cost":{"train":31.9564,"infra":10.04,"dep":6.9166,"int":3.8958},"sup":{"qJul":116.28307392996109,"qJan":114.53307392996109,"qYear":113.078,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 116.3 对、2026-01-31周六 114.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 113.1 对/日。","longRate":0.6123052309288182,"carsAvg":12.898,"seatsAvg":967.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率61%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.38769476907118183},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6123052309288182}],"trainKm":41438578,"carKm":534493083,"seatKm":40086981260},"dem":{"load":0.534,"loadLo":0.4205,"loadHi":0.6781,"prior":0.534,"pkm":21405944471,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计53%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.7403119161274271,"real":0.3257,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.740（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.83 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 28% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 113.08 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 502 公里 = 4,144 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.90 节/列 = 53,449 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 967 座/列 = 400.87 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.4% = 214.06 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.740 = 69.73 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.5 元 = 31.96 亿元\n线路维护 = 502 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 10.04 亿元\n折旧 = 502 公里 × 0.83 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.92 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 28%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 3.90 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 69.73 − 31.96 − 10.04 − 6.92 − 3.90 = +16.92 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R117","name":"向莆铁路","km":632,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"华东","via":"南昌,抚州,建宁,泰宁,三明北,永泰,福州/永泰,莆田","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-26.5234,"lo":-35.4078,"hi":-19.7791,"opProfit":-8.1145,"opLo":-15.0125,"opHi":-1.9433,"perKm":-419.67,"opPerKm":-128.39,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.051,"rev":14.7381,"emuCost":6.1889,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":27.792904290429043,"2018":31.40841584158416,"2019":29.91996699669967,"2020":25.843234323432345,"2021":27.78052805280528,"2022":29.21947194719472,"2023":29.83910891089109,"2024":30.632838283828384,"2025":30.971122112211223,"2026":32.695544554455445},"cost":{"train":10.2126,"infra":12.64,"dep":9.2323,"int":9.1766},"sup":{"qJul":32.695544554455445,"qJan":30.183168316831683,"qYear":30.779,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 32.7 对、2026-01-31周六 30.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 30.8 对/日。","longRate":0.585709591944886,"carsAvg":12.686,"seatsAvg":951.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率59%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.41429040805511397},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.585709591944886}],"trainKm":14200275,"carKm":180140103,"seatKm":13510507729},"dem":{"load":0.4335,"loadLo":0.3243,"loadHi":0.5796,"prior":0.4335,"pkm":5857328913,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计43%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6800492717381799,"real":0.2516,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.680（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.88 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 30.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 632 公里 = 1,420 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.69 节/列 = 18,014 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 951 座/列 = 135.11 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.4% = 58.57 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.680 = 14.74 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.3 元 = 10.21 亿元\n线路维护 = 632 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 12.64 亿元\n折旧 = 632 公里 × 0.88 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 9.23 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 9.18 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 14.74 − 10.21 − 12.64 − 9.23 − 9.18 = -26.52 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R118","name":"南龙铁路","km":248,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"华东","via":"南平,三明北,三明,龙岩","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-12.9675,"lo":-16.1172,"hi":-10.8249,"opProfit":-4.5945,"opLo":-6.5392,"opHi":-2.9991,"perKm":-522.88,"opPerKm":-185.26,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.8704,"emuCost":0.8975,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":15.396761133603238,"2020":11.878542510121457,"2021":15.821862348178138,"2022":14.392712550607287,"2023":13.504048582995951,"2024":13.823886639676113,"2025":12.80161943319838,"2026":14.390688259109313},"cost":{"train":1.505,"infra":4.96,"dep":4.1991,"int":4.1738},"sup":{"qJul":14.390688259109313,"qJan":12.894736842105264,"qYear":13.351,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 14.4 对、2026-01-31周六 12.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 13.4 对/日。","longRate":0.350951891967928,"carsAvg":10.808,"seatsAvg":810.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率35%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.649048108032072},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.350951891967928}],"trainKm":2417094,"carKm":26123020,"seatKm":1959226472},"dem":{"load":0.3713,"loadLo":0.269,"loadHi":0.5125,"prior":0.3713,"pkm":727535587,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计37%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4,"ratio":0.6427329758100923,"real":0.2571,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.40 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.643（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.02 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.35 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 248 公里 = 242 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.81 节/列 = 2,612 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 811 座/列 = 19.59 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.1% = 7.28 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.400 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.643 = 1.87 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.8 元 = 1.50 亿元\n线路维护 = 248 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.96 亿元\n折旧 = 248 公里 × 1.02 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.20 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 4.17 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.87 − 1.50 − 4.96 − 4.20 − 4.17 = -12.97 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R119","name":"龙厦铁路龙漳新建段","km":111.3,"speed":200,"opened":"2012","region":"华东","via":"龙岩,漳州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.6002,"lo":-5.0428,"hi":-2.3065,"opProfit":-1.5372,"opLo":-2.8519,"opHi":-0.2968,"perKm":-323.47,"opPerKm":-138.11,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.056,"rev":2.9649,"emuCost":1.357,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":33.0,"2018":31.0,"2019":37.0,"2020":38.5,"2021":40.0,"2022":40.0,"2023":39.5,"2024":44.5,"2025":42.0,"2026":46.0},"cost":{"train":2.2761,"infra":2.226,"dep":1.0346,"int":1.0284},"sup":{"qJul":46.0,"qJan":46.0,"qYear":45.08,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 46.0 对、2026-01-31周六 46.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.1 对/日。","longRate":0.348,"carsAvg":10.784,"seatsAvg":808.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率35%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.652},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.348}],"trainKm":3662705,"carKm":39498610,"seatKm":2962395739},"dem":{"load":0.4628,"loadLo":0.3514,"loadHi":0.6095,"prior":0.4628,"pkm":1370999484,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6976046533053151,"real":0.2163,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.698（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.56 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.08 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 111.3 公里 = 366 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.78 节/列 = 3,950 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 809 座/列 = 29.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.3% = 13.71 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.698 = 2.96 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.7 元 = 2.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 111.3 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.23 亿元\n折旧 = 111.3 公里 × 0.56 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.03 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 1.03 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.96 − 2.28 − 2.23 − 1.03 − 1.03 = -3.60 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R120","name":"赣瑞龙铁路","km":249,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"华东","via":"赣州,瑞金,龙岩","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-12.5507,"lo":-15.8019,"hi":-10.1433,"opProfit":-4.3913,"opLo":-6.5219,"opHi":-2.6335,"perKm":-504.05,"opPerKm":-176.36,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.003,"rev":2.7678,"emuCost":1.2933,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":9.451219512195122,"2018":11.607723577235772,"2019":12.3130081300813,"2020":15.402439024390244,"2021":17.538617886178862,"2022":18.697154471544714,"2023":16.264227642276424,"2024":20.152439024390244,"2025":19.101626016260163,"2026":19.36178861788618},"cost":{"train":2.179,"infra":4.98,"dep":4.0921,"int":4.0674},"sup":{"qJul":19.36178861788618,"qJan":21.434959349593495,"qYear":20.016,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 19.4 对、2026-01-31周六 21.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.0 对/日。","longRate":0.2932691580936385,"carsAvg":10.346,"seatsAvg":776.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率29%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.7067308419063615},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.2932691580936385}],"trainKm":3638367,"carKm":37643099,"seatKm":2823232458},"dem":{"load":0.4011,"loadLo":0.2951,"loadHi":0.5452,"prior":0.4011,"pkm":1132398226,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.6605880601201248,"real":0.2444,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.661（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.99 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 20.02 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 249 公里 = 364 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.35 节/列 = 3,764 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 776 座/列 = 28.23 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.1% = 11.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.661 = 2.77 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 2.18 亿元\n线路维护 = 249 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.98 亿元\n折旧 = 249 公里 × 0.99 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.09 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.07 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.77 − 2.18 − 4.98 − 4.09 − 4.07 = -12.55 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R121","name":"龙龙高铁龙武段","km":92,"speed":250,"opened":"2023","region":"华东","via":"龙岩,上杭,武平","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-5.4783,"lo":-6.7895,"hi":-4.5443,"opProfit":-1.7433,"opLo":-2.4731,"opHi":-1.1438,"perKm":-595.47,"opPerKm":-189.49,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.72,"emuCost":0.3542,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":3.0434782608695654,"2018":3.8043478260869565,"2019":3.9565217391304346,"2020":5.021739130434782,"2021":5.630434782608695,"2022":6.086956521739131,"2023":5.630434782608695,"2024":12.543478260869565,"2025":12.543478260869565,"2026":14.0},"cost":{"train":0.6233,"infra":1.84,"dep":1.8731,"int":1.8619},"sup":{"qJul":14.0,"qJan":13.456521739130435,"qYear":13.447,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 14.0 对、2026-01-31周六 13.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 13.4 对/日。","longRate":0.4268695652173913,"carsAvg":11.415,"seatsAvg":856.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率43%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5731304347826087},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4268695652173913}],"trainKm":903094,"carKm":10308778,"seatKm":773158363},"dem":{"load":0.3516,"loadLo":0.2522,"loadHi":0.4903,"prior":0.3516,"pkm":271854036,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.41978487415442745,"ratio":0.6309003243310817,"real":0.2648,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.42 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.631（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.23 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 13.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 92 公里 = 90 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.41 节/列 = 1,031 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 856 座/列 = 7.73 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.2% = 2.72 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.420 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.631 = 0.72 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 0.62 亿元\n线路维护 = 92 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.84 亿元\n折旧 = 92 公里 × 1.23 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.87 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 1.86 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.72 − 0.62 − 1.84 − 1.87 − 1.86 = -5.48 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R122","name":"福平铁路","km":88,"speed":200,"opened":"2020","region":"华东","via":"福州,福清,平潭","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-8.5373,"lo":-10.6396,"hi":-7.0593,"opProfit":-1.5174,"opLo":-2.3078,"opHi":-0.8439,"perKm":-970.14,"opPerKm":-172.43,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.005,"rev":1.1649,"emuCost":0.5505,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":13.5,"2022":13.0,"2023":14.0,"2024":18.0,"2025":26.0,"2026":29.0},"cost":{"train":0.9223,"infra":1.76,"dep":3.5205,"int":3.4993},"sup":{"qJul":29.0,"qJan":18.0,"qYear":22.892,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 29.0 对、2026-01-31周六 18.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 22.9 对/日。","longRate":0.36200000000000004,"carsAvg":10.896,"seatsAvg":817.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率36%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6379999999999999},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.36200000000000004}],"trainKm":1470614,"carKm":16023812,"seatKm":1201785924},"dem":{"load":0.2871,"loadLo":0.2137,"loadHi":0.3859,"prior":0.4111,"pkm":345092023,"kind":"der","text":"福平铁路2024年运送224.85万人次，alpha取0.7。 换算本线口径约12%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线41%按精度合并（本线证据权重35%）。","evidence":[{"text":"福平铁路2024年客流","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.57,"ratio":0.5922251626462834,"real":0.3376,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.57 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.592（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.41 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 22.89 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 88 公里 = 147 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.90 节/列 = 1,602 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 817 座/列 = 12.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 28.7% = 3.45 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.570 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.592 = 1.16 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.8 元 = 0.92 亿元\n线路维护 = 88 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.76 亿元\n折旧 = 88 公里 × 2.41 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.52 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 3.50 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.16 − 0.92 − 1.76 − 3.52 − 3.50 = -8.54 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R123","name":"昌九城际","km":131,"speed":250,"opened":"2010","region":"华东","via":"南昌,永修,德安,九江","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.509,"lo":-5.3563,"hi":0.7871,"opProfit":-0.5144,"opLo":-3.2534,"opHi":2.2592,"perKm":-191.53,"opPerKm":-39.27,"pProb":0.134,"pProbOp":0.38,"rev":7.389,"emuCost":3.0291,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":32.725352112676056,"2018":42.38732394366197,"2019":38.92253521126761,"2020":37.394366197183096,"2021":46.59154929577465,"2022":57.71830985915493,"2023":69.67957746478874,"2024":72.34507042253522,"2025":70.24647887323944,"2026":75.11267605633803},"cost":{"train":5.2834,"infra":2.62,"dep":1.0003,"int":0.9943},"sup":{"qJul":75.11267605633803,"qJan":74.61267605633803,"qYear":73.359,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 75.1 对、2026-01-31周六 74.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 73.4 对/日。","longRate":0.5709659666229139,"carsAvg":12.568,"seatsAvg":942.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4290340333770861},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5709659666229139}],"trainKm":7015338,"carKm":88166854,"seatKm":6612514034},"dem":{"load":0.5005,"loadLo":0.3874,"loadHi":0.6466,"prior":0.5005,"pkm":3309483981,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31000000000000005,"ratio":0.7202144443843933,"real":0.2233,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.720（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.46 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 73.36 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 131 公里 = 702 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.57 节/列 = 8,817 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 943 座/列 = 66.13 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.0% = 33.09 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.720 = 7.39 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 5.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 131 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.62 亿元\n折旧 = 131 公里 × 0.46 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.00 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 0.99 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 7.39 − 5.28 − 2.62 − 1.00 − 0.99 = -2.51 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R124","name":"昌九高铁先行段","km":21,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华东","via":"南昌东,何家","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-1.5182,"lo":-1.8749,"hi":-1.2743,"opProfit":-0.6146,"opLo":-0.8577,"opHi":-0.4254,"perKm":-722.97,"opPerKm":-292.67,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.113,"emuCost":0.0512,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.0976,"infra":0.63,"dep":0.4532,"int":0.4505},"sup":{"qJul":11.074255860460408,"qJan":null,"qYear":10.576,"kind":"asm","text":"该线未进入知乎分段表，开行对数沿用前一版相似线路推算。 折算后 10.6 对/日。","longRate":0.0,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":555.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率0%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":1.0},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.0}],"trainKm":162129,"carKm":1297030,"seatKm":89981466},"dem":{"load":0.3856,"loadLo":0.3045,"loadHi":0.4884,"prior":0.3856,"pkm":34697304,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计39%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6512921439814711,"real":0.3256,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.651（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.58 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 21 公里 = 16 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 130 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 555 座/列 = 0.90 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.6% = 0.35 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.651 = 0.11 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.10 亿元\n线路维护 = 21 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 0.63 亿元\n折旧 = 21 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.45 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 0.45 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.11 − 0.10 − 0.63 − 0.45 − 0.45 = -1.52 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。","开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"昌九高铁先行段","url":"https://www.stdaily.com/web/gdxw/2025-08/28/content_391746.html","note":"仅南昌东—何家约21公里。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R125","name":"昌赣高铁","km":418,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华东","via":"南昌,吉安,兴国,赣州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":2.9915,"lo":-13.5878,"hi":15.4891,"opProfit":18.7637,"opLo":5.3074,"opHi":31.6679,"perKm":71.57,"opPerKm":448.89,"pProb":0.525,"pProbOp":0.966,"rev":51.5628,"emuCost":11.0085,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":20.57843137254902,"2021":23.86764705882353,"2022":44.97303921568628,"2023":56.97303921568628,"2024":76.36764705882354,"2025":80.47303921568627,"2026":81.72303921568627},"cost":{"train":20.2591,"infra":12.54,"dep":8.9511,"int":6.8211},"sup":{"qJul":81.72303921568627,"qJan":79.97303921568627,"qYear":79.209,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 81.7 对、2026-01-31周六 80.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 79.2 对/日。","longRate":0.42573637645082923,"carsAvg":11.534,"seatsAvg":821.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率43%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5742636235491707},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.42573637645082923}],"trainKm":24169896,"carKm":278766205,"seatKm":19845545019},"dem":{"load":0.6039,"loadLo":0.5186,"loadHi":0.7032,"prior":0.6039,"pkm":11984669557,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7822532240016203,"real":0.4302,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.782（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.29 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 38% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 79.21 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 418 公里 = 2,417 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.53 节/列 = 27,877 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 821 座/列 = 198.46 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.4% = 119.85 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.782 = 51.56 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.4 元 = 20.26 亿元\n线路维护 = 418 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 12.54 亿元\n折旧 = 418 公里 × 1.29 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.95 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 38%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 6.82 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 51.56 − 20.26 − 12.54 − 8.95 − 6.82 = +2.99 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"江西铁路集团2025年年报","url":"https://static.sse.com.cn/disclosure/bond/announcement/company/c/new/2026-04-29/244475_20260429_X6Z8.pdf","note":"第38页：昌赣收入37.25亿元、尚未盈利；未披露亏损额。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R126","name":"赣深高铁","km":436,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"华东-华南","via":"赣州,信丰,定南,龙川,河源,惠州,深圳北","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":2.785,"lo":-15.6648,"hi":17.7902,"opProfit":24.4864,"opLo":9.4194,"opHi":39.1031,"perKm":63.88,"opPerKm":561.62,"pProb":0.509,"pProbOp":0.984,"rev":58.7104,"emuCost":11.491,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":36.65867579908676,"2023":55.49885844748859,"2024":65.26598173515981,"2025":78.32762557077625,"2026":79.98401826484019},"cost":{"train":21.144,"infra":13.08,"dep":11.8697,"int":9.8318},"sup":{"qJul":79.98401826484019,"qJan":81.44977168949772,"qYear":79.121,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 80.0 对、2026-01-31周六 81.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 79.1 对/日。","longRate":0.42831518853652273,"carsAvg":11.555,"seatsAvg":822.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率43%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5716848114634773},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.42831518853652273}],"trainKm":25182593,"carKm":290985271,"seatKm":20717643835},"dem":{"load":0.6038,"loadLo":0.5185,"loadHi":0.7032,"prior":0.6038,"pkm":12509612650,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7822035627278272,"real":0.4693,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.782（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.64 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 42% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 79.12 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 436 公里 = 2,518 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.56 节/列 = 29,099 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 823 座/列 = 207.18 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.4% = 125.10 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.782 = 58.71 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.4 元 = 21.14 亿元\n线路维护 = 436 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 13.08 亿元\n折旧 = 436 公里 × 1.64 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 11.87 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 42%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 9.83 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 58.71 − 21.14 − 13.08 − 11.87 − 9.83 = +2.78 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"赣深初期运能","url":"https://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2021/1211/c64387-32305320.html","note":"2021初期22对，后续92对为当时计划。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R127","name":"武九客专","km":198,"speed":250,"opened":"2017","region":"华中-华东","via":"武汉,鄂州,黄石,阳新,瑞昌,九江","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-7.1226,"lo":-12.4163,"hi":-2.3243,"opProfit":2.5583,"opLo":-1.8472,"opHi":7.001,"perKm":-359.73,"opPerKm":129.21,"pProb":0.041,"pProbOp":0.753,"rev":12.6948,"emuCost":3.5268,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":11.923809523809524,"2018":37.59047619047619,"2019":39.042857142857144,"2020":21.695238095238096,"2021":39.83571428571429,"2022":41.67857142857143,"2023":51.17857142857143,"2024":53.96666666666667,"2025":56.28095238095238,"2026":62.666666666666664},"cost":{"train":6.1765,"infra":3.96,"dep":4.8551,"int":4.8258},"sup":{"qJul":62.666666666666664,"qJan":58.042857142857144,"qYear":59.09,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 62.7 对、2026-01-31周六 58.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 59.1 对/日。","longRate":0.5023955547112462,"carsAvg":12.019,"seatsAvg":901.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4976044452887538},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5023955547112462}],"trainKm":8540850,"carKm":102653877,"seatKm":7699040749},"dem":{"load":0.4837,"loadLo":0.3712,"loadHi":0.6303,"prior":0.4837,"pkm":3724191281,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.7101556134851046,"real":0.3409,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.710（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.48 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 59.09 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 198 公里 = 854 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.02 节/列 = 10,265 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 901 座/列 = 76.99 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.4% = 37.24 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.710 = 12.69 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.8 元 = 6.18 亿元\n线路维护 = 198 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.96 亿元\n折旧 = 198 公里 × 1.48 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.86 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 4.83 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.69 − 6.18 − 3.96 − 4.86 − 4.83 = -7.12 亿元","notes":["更正：invPerKm 由 1.4542857142857142 改为 1.4771——独立审计：修正源图平均投资合并格读数"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R128","name":"武冈城际","km":36,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"华中","via":"鄂州,黄冈","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-2.4502,"lo":-3.2412,"hi":-1.879,"opProfit":-0.1981,"opLo":-0.6773,"opHi":0.2377,"perKm":-680.61,"opPerKm":-55.02,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.249,"rev":1.1555,"emuCost":0.3527,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":11.0,"2018":17.0,"2019":17.0,"2020":9.0,"2021":15.5,"2022":21.5,"2023":27.5,"2024":38.0,"2025":43.0,"2026":45.0},"cost":{"train":0.6336,"infra":0.72,"dep":1.1295,"int":1.1227},"sup":{"qJul":45.0,"qJan":40.0,"qYear":41.587,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 45.0 对、2026-01-31周六 40.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 41.6 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.392,"seatsAvg":695.3,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：经本线109列，16节或重联17%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":610,"share":0.826,"label":"8节"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.174,"label":"16节/重联"}],"trainKm":1092920,"carKm":10264700,"seatKm":759863212},"dem":{"load":0.4566,"loadLo":0.3456,"loadHi":0.6033,"prior":0.4566,"pkm":346945161,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.6938778863981097,"real":0.3331,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.694（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.89 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 41.59 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 36 公里 = 109 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.39 节/列 = 1,026 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 695 座/列 = 7.60 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.7% = 3.47 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.694 = 1.16 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 0.63 亿元\n线路维护 = 36 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.72 亿元\n折旧 = 36 公里 × 1.89 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.13 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 1.12 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.16 − 0.63 − 0.72 − 1.13 − 1.12 = -2.45 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R129","name":"武孝城际","km":91,"speed":200,"opened":"2016","region":"华中","via":"武汉,孝感","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-4.2606,"lo":-6.5503,"hi":-2.1841,"opProfit":0.8901,"opLo":-0.9045,"opHi":2.8008,"perKm":-468.2,"opPerKm":97.81,"pProb":0.005,"pProbOp":0.729,"rev":5.2514,"emuCost":1.5012,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":12.0,"2018":11.5,"2019":11.0,"2020":29.5,"2021":54.0,"2022":64.5,"2023":64.5,"2024":66.5,"2025":67.0,"2026":83.5},"cost":{"train":2.5413,"infra":1.82,"dep":2.5831,"int":2.5676},"sup":{"qJul":83.5,"qJan":52.5,"qYear":66.252,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 83.5 对、2026-01-31周六 52.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 66.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.928,"seatsAvg":705.3,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：162列（多为汉十方向跨线），16节24%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":580,"share":0.759,"label":"8节"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.241,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":4401154,"carKm":43694653,"seatKm":3104221640},"dem":{"load":0.4926,"loadLo":0.3798,"loadHi":0.6389,"prior":0.4926,"pkm":1529101621,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.7154748181481418,"real":0.3434,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.715（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.71 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 66.25 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 91 公里 = 440 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.93 节/列 = 4,369 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 705 座/列 = 31.04 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.3% = 15.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.715 = 5.25 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.0 元 = 2.54 亿元\n线路维护 = 91 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.82 亿元\n折旧 = 91 公里 × 1.71 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.58 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 2.57 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.25 − 2.54 − 1.82 − 2.58 − 2.57 = -4.26 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R130","name":"武黄城际","km":97,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"华中","via":"武汉,鄂州,黄石","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-3.8158,"lo":-6.6871,"hi":-1.2882,"opProfit":1.7708,"opLo":-0.5701,"opHi":4.1749,"perKm":-393.38,"opPerKm":182.56,"pProb":0.038,"pProbOp":0.819,"rev":7.0522,"emuCost":1.8646,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":18.357894736842105,"2018":43.189473684210526,"2019":45.189473684210526,"2020":23.74736842105263,"2021":45.73157894736842,"2022":49.45789473684211,"2023":61.98421052631579,"2024":70.56842105263158,"2025":76.50526315789473,"2026":85.41052631578947},"cost":{"train":3.3414,"infra":1.94,"dep":2.8017,"int":2.7849},"sup":{"qJul":85.41052631578947,"qJan":77.58947368421053,"qYear":79.772,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 85.4 对、2026-01-31周六 77.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 79.8 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9.608,"seatsAvg":708.5,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：159列，16节20%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":610,"share":0.799,"label":"8节CRH2A为主"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.201,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":5648672,"carKm":54272441,"seatKm":4002027690},"dem":{"load":0.507,"loadLo":0.3938,"loadHi":0.6528,"prior":0.507,"pkm":2028971756,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计51%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.7241127769883312,"real":0.3476,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.724（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.74 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 79.77 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 97 公里 = 565 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.61 节/列 = 5,427 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 708 座/列 = 40.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.7% = 20.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.724 = 7.05 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.7 元 = 3.34 亿元\n线路维护 = 97 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.94 亿元\n折旧 = 97 公里 × 1.74 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.80 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 2.78 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 7.05 − 3.34 − 1.94 − 2.80 − 2.78 = -3.82 亿元","notes":["更正：invPerKm 由 1.6894736842105262 改为 1.74——独立审计：修正源图平均投资合并格读数","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R131","name":"武咸城际","km":91,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华中","via":"武汉,咸宁","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.8757,"lo":-7.1996,"hi":-4.9915,"opProfit":-1.8997,"opLo":-2.6077,"opHi":-1.3945,"perKm":-645.68,"opPerKm":-208.76,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1207,"emuCost":0.097,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":8.0,"2018":10.0,"2019":9.5,"2020":5.0,"2021":7.5,"2022":6.0,"2023":8.5,"2024":3.5,"2025":3.5,"2026":11.5},"cost":{"train":0.2004,"infra":1.82,"dep":1.994,"int":1.982},"sup":{"qJul":11.5,"qJan":3.5,"qYear":7.25,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 11.5 对、2026-01-31周六 3.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 7.2 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.8,"seatsAvg":493.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"12306：国铁D57xx 8列/日为CRH2A；2026-04起“新城快线”4节车（2组）另开，份额为推定。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":610,"share":0.7,"label":"CRH2A"},{"cars":4,"seats":222,"share":0.3,"label":"新城快线4节"}],"trainKm":481618,"carKm":3274999,"seatKm":237726398},"dem":{"load":0.2424,"loadLo":0.1492,"loadHi":0.3939,"prior":0.2424,"pkm":57629826,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计24%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.43631457471742296,"real":0.2094,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.436（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.32 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 7.25 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 91 公里 = 48 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.80 节/列 = 327 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 494 座/列 = 2.38 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 24.2% = 0.58 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.436 = 0.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.15 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.20 亿元\n线路维护 = 91 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.82 亿元\n折旧 = 91 公里 × 1.32 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.98 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.12 − 0.20 − 1.82 − 1.99 − 1.98 = -5.88 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R132","name":"仙桃城际新建段","km":16.6,"speed":200,"opened":"2020","region":"华中","via":"大福,仙桃","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.2372,"lo":-1.521,"hi":-1.0486,"opProfit":-0.3416,"opLo":-0.4692,"opHi":-0.2488,"perKm":-745.32,"opPerKm":-205.79,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0218,"emuCost":0.0169,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":10.0,"2022":6.5,"2023":7.5,"2024":6.0,"2025":6.0,"2026":6.0},"cost":{"train":0.0314,"infra":0.332,"dep":0.4492,"int":0.4465},"sup":{"qJul":6.0,"qJan":6.0,"qYear":5.88,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 6.0 对、2026-01-31周六 6.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 5.9 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":610.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：汉口—仙桃22列全为CRH2A（610座）。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":610,"share":1,"label":"CRH2A"}],"trainKm":71254,"carKm":570031,"seatKm":43464842},"dem":{"load":0.2307,"loadLo":0.1409,"loadHi":0.3777,"prior":0.2307,"pkm":10026949,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计23%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.4340363772519884,"real":0.217,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.434（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.63 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 5.88 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 16.6 公里 = 7 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 57 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 610 座/列 = 0.43 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 23.1% = 0.10 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.434 = 0.02 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.03 亿元\n线路维护 = 16.6 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.33 亿元\n折旧 = 16.6 公里 × 1.63 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.45 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 0.45 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.02 − 0.03 − 0.33 − 0.45 − 0.45 = -1.24 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R133","name":"汉宜铁路","km":293,"speed":200,"opened":"2012","region":"华中","via":"武汉,仙桃,潜江,荆州,宜昌","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":4.7881,"lo":-7.2265,"hi":15.1458,"opProfit":10.8907,"opLo":1.0663,"opHi":21.4504,"perKm":163.42,"opPerKm":371.7,"pProb":0.656,"pProbOp":0.926,"rev":30.6372,"emuCost":8.3717,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":68.26712328767124,"2018":75.03424657534246,"2019":74.8972602739726,"2020":46.98287671232877,"2021":86.82534246575342,"2022":88.34760273972603,"2023":93.61472602739725,"2024":103.20547945205479,"2025":111.79965753424658,"2026":102.03082191780823},"cost":{"train":13.8865,"infra":5.86,"dep":3.9883,"int":2.1143},"sup":{"qJul":102.03082191780823,"qJan":91.77397260273973,"qYear":94.836,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 102.0 对、2026-01-31周六 91.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 94.8 对/日。","longRate":0.5015941999798611,"carsAvg":12.013,"seatsAvg":901.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4984058000201389},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5015941999798611}],"trainKm":20284502,"carKm":243672721,"seatKm":18275454067},"dem":{"load":0.5204,"loadLo":0.407,"loadHi":0.6654,"prior":0.5204,"pkm":9510315667,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.7321527685075576,"real":0.3221,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.732（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.82 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约14年，按有息负债 27% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 94.84 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 293 公里 = 2,028 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.01 节/列 = 24,367 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 901 座/列 = 182.75 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.0% = 95.10 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.732 = 30.64 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 16.8 元 = 13.89 亿元\n线路维护 = 293 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.86 亿元\n折旧 = 293 公里 × 0.82 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 27%（开通14年）× 3.3% = 2.11 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 30.64 − 13.89 − 5.86 − 3.99 − 2.11 = +4.79 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R134","name":"武宜高铁","km":314,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华中","via":"武汉,钟祥,荆门,宜昌","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-21.1355,"lo":-28.1293,"hi":-15.9572,"opProfit":-3.7785,"opLo":-8.5701,"opHi":0.2709,"perKm":-673.1,"opPerKm":-120.33,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.115,"rev":10.1174,"emuCost":2.4146,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":27.523333333333333},"cost":{"train":4.4759,"infra":9.42,"dep":8.7047,"int":8.6523},"sup":{"qJul":27.523333333333333,"qJan":24.05666666666667,"qYear":25.231,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 27.5 对、2026-01-31周六 24.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 25.2 对/日。","longRate":0.30991461789996366,"carsAvg":10.572,"seatsAvg":748.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率31%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6900853821000363},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.30991461789996366}],"trainKm":5783419,"carKm":61143993,"seatKm":4330026544},"dem":{"load":0.4511,"loadLo":0.3653,"loadHi":0.5571,"prior":0.4511,"pkm":1953360485,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.75,"ratio":0.6905967107991295,"real":0.5179,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.75 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.691（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.67 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 25.23 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 314 公里 = 578 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.57 节/列 = 6,114 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 749 座/列 = 43.30 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.1% = 19.53 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.750 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.691 = 10.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 4.48 亿元\n线路维护 = 314 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 9.42 亿元\n折旧 = 314 公里 × 1.67 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.70 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 8.65 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.12 − 4.48 − 9.42 − 8.70 − 8.65 = -21.14 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R135","name":"汉十高铁","km":399,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华中","via":"武汉,孝感,随州,襄阳,十堰","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-14.8829,"lo":-24.848,"hi":-6.3741,"opProfit":3.2332,"opLo":-5.4414,"opHi":11.2023,"perKm":-373.01,"opPerKm":81.03,"pProb":0.016,"pProbOp":0.658,"rev":27.2268,"emuCost":6.5293,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":1.5913043478260869,"2018":1.525,"2019":1.458695652173913,"2020":20.21195652173913,"2021":36.33913043478261,"2022":41.821739130434786,"2023":43.53152173913043,"2024":45.483695652173914,"2025":45.428260869565214,"2026":66.8195652173913},"cost":{"train":12.0236,"infra":11.97,"dep":9.0854,"int":9.0307},"sup":{"qJul":66.8195652173913,"qJan":35.23586956521739,"qYear":49.612,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 66.8 对、2026-01-31周六 35.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 49.6 对/日。","longRate":0.4146652568565572,"carsAvg":11.442,"seatsAvg":814.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率41%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5853347431434428},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.4146652568565572}],"trainKm":14450594,"carKm":165339675,"seatKm":11765179290},"dem":{"load":0.5687,"loadLo":0.4818,"loadHi":0.6713,"prior":0.5687,"pkm":6691071177,"kind":"curve","text":"汉十高铁5年累计发送3575万（年均715万，含疫情年），增长取30%，alpha取0.55。 为多年累计÷年数（含疫情年），只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约21%，拟合曲线57%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"汉十高铁五周年","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5346042403523288,"ratio":0.761148084568054,"real":0.4069,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.53 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.761（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.37 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 49.61 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 399 公里 = 1,445 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.44 节/列 = 16,534 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 814 座/列 = 117.65 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 56.9% = 66.91 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.535 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.761 = 27.23 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 12.02 亿元\n线路维护 = 399 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 11.97 亿元\n折旧 = 399 公里 × 1.37 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 9.09 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 9.03 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 27.23 − 12.02 − 11.97 − 9.09 − 9.03 = -14.88 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R136","name":"郑渝高铁郑襄段","km":389,"speed":350,"opened":"2019","region":"华中","via":"郑州,平顶山,南阳,襄阳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-9.6828,"lo":-19.9125,"hi":-0.4235,"opProfit":6.5408,"opLo":-2.427,"opHi":15.3618,"perKm":-248.92,"opPerKm":168.14,"pProb":0.096,"pProbOp":0.817,"rev":31.3824,"emuCost":7.1513,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":15.017994858611825,"2021":30.163239074550127,"2022":40.49228791773779,"2023":50.02056555269923,"2024":50.70565552699229,"2025":51.62724935732648,"2026":58.681233933161955},"cost":{"train":13.1716,"infra":11.67,"dep":8.1363,"int":8.0873},"sup":{"qJul":58.681233933161955,"qJan":55.41002570694087,"qYear":55.864,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 58.7 对、2026-01-31周六 55.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 55.9 对/日。","longRate":0.41151358040916464,"carsAvg":11.416,"seatsAvg":812.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率41%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5884864195908354},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.41151358040916464}],"trainKm":15863651,"carKm":181092503,"seatKm":12884393683},"dem":{"load":0.5777,"loadLo":0.4911,"loadHi":0.6796,"prior":0.5777,"pkm":7443605940,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计58%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7665501820901673,"real":0.4216,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.767（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.26 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 55.86 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 389 公里 = 1,586 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.42 节/列 = 18,109 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 812 座/列 = 128.84 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.8% = 74.44 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.767 = 31.38 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 13.17 亿元\n线路维护 = 389 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 11.67 亿元\n折旧 = 389 公里 × 1.26 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.14 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 8.09 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 31.38 − 13.17 − 11.67 − 8.14 − 8.09 = -9.68 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R137","name":"郑渝高铁襄万段","km":435,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华中-西南","via":"襄阳,兴山,巴东,巫山,奉节,万州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-19.3744,"lo":-29.5776,"hi":-10.9551,"opProfit":3.3752,"opLo":-4.788,"opHi":10.685,"perKm":-445.39,"opPerKm":77.59,"pProb":0.004,"pProbOp":0.699,"rev":27.6785,"emuCost":6.071,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":36.423963133640555,"2023":38.58870967741935,"2024":34.99769585253456,"2025":45.26728110599078,"2026":48.336405529953915},"cost":{"train":11.2533,"infra":13.05,"dep":11.4092,"int":11.3405},"sup":{"qJul":48.336405529953915,"qJan":45.154377880184335,"qYear":45.771,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 48.3 对、2026-01-31周六 45.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.8 对/日。","longRate":0.31051158356373343,"carsAvg":10.577,"seatsAvg":749.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率31%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6894884164362666},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.31051158356373343}],"trainKm":14534488,"carKm":153734862,"seatKm":10887345512},"dem":{"load":0.595,"loadLo":0.5206,"loadHi":0.68,"prior":0.5626,"pkm":6477636275,"kind":"der","text":"郑渝高铁2023年7月暑运客座率80.3%（国铁公布）；暑运峰值换全年按下调约12个百分点，取68%。 换算本线口径约68%；与拟合曲线56%按精度合并（本线证据权重26%）。","evidence":[{"text":"人民网 2023暑运","url":"http://finance.people.com.cn/n1/2023/0815/c1004-40057010.html"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7768970485406385,"real":0.4273,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.777（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.58 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.77 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 435 公里 = 1,453 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.58 节/列 = 15,373 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 749 座/列 = 108.87 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 59.5% = 64.78 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.777 = 27.68 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 11.25 亿元\n线路维护 = 435 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 13.05 亿元\n折旧 = 435 公里 × 1.58 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 11.41 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 11.34 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 27.68 − 11.25 − 13.05 − 11.41 − 11.34 = -19.37 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R138","name":"郑徐高铁","km":362,"speed":350,"opened":"2016","region":"华中-华东","via":"郑州,开封,兰考,商丘,徐州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":9.4506,"lo":-7.9104,"hi":22.1923,"opProfit":22.7389,"opLo":8.6716,"opHi":35.9286,"perKm":261.07,"opPerKm":628.15,"pProb":0.729,"pProbOp":0.982,"rev":54.4588,"emuCost":11.4614,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":56.727777777777774,"2018":54.84166666666667,"2019":59.641666666666666,"2020":51.041666666666664,"2021":69.63055555555556,"2022":68.725,"2023":77.18888888888888,"2024":79.41388888888889,"2025":86.35138888888889,"2026":86.27361111111111},"cost":{"train":20.8599,"infra":10.86,"dep":7.9922,"int":5.2961},"sup":{"qJul":86.27361111111111,"qJan":81.37083333333334,"qYear":82.084,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 86.3 对、2026-01-31周六 81.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 82.1 对/日。","longRate":0.6481989149508186,"carsAvg":13.38,"seatsAvg":960.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率65%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.3518010850491814},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6481989149508186}],"trainKm":21691648,"carKm":290235358,"seatKm":20826678955},"dem":{"load":0.6065,"loadLo":0.5214,"loadHi":0.7056,"prior":0.6065,"pkm":12632204675,"kind":"curve","text":"郑徐高铁2026年1–8月日均发送5.8万人次（沿线站发送，不含经由跨线客，作下界）。 换算本线口径下界约24%，拟合曲线61%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"郑州局郑徐高铁客流","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7838384523617111,"real":0.4311,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.784（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.33 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 33% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 82.08 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 362 公里 = 2,169 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.38 节/列 = 29,024 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 960 座/列 = 208.27 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.7% = 126.32 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.784 = 54.46 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.9 元 = 20.86 亿元\n线路维护 = 362 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 10.86 亿元\n折旧 = 362 公里 × 1.33 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 33%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 5.30 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 54.46 − 20.86 − 10.86 − 7.99 − 5.30 = +9.45 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R139","name":"郑西高铁","km":458,"speed":350,"opened":"2010","region":"华中-西北","via":"郑州,洛阳,三门峡,华阴,渭南,西安北","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":45.1214,"lo":18.2969,"hi":70.2754,"opProfit":56.696,"opLo":29.8357,"opHi":82.0136,"perKm":985.18,"opPerKm":1237.9,"pProb":0.98,"pProbOp":0.997,"rev":109.7869,"emuCost":21.7141,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":62.65098634294385,"2018":70.73596358118361,"2019":87.23065250379362,"2020":75.5546282245827,"2021":104.83839150227618,"2022":88.97723823975721,"2023":102.81487101669195,"2024":115.6525037936267,"2025":123.50758725341426,"2026":120.27238239757207},"cost":{"train":39.3509,"infra":13.74,"dep":7.9069,"int":3.6677},"sup":{"qJul":120.27238239757207,"qJan":115.30273141122913,"qYear":115.37,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 120.3 对、2026-01-31周六 115.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 115.4 对/日。","longRate":0.7536423141705411,"carsAvg":14.255,"seatsAvg":1026.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率75%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.24635768582945894},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7536423141705411}],"trainKm":38572701,"carKm":549862764,"seatKm":39576610847},"dem":{"load":0.6314,"loadLo":0.548,"loadHi":0.7276,"prior":0.6314,"pkm":24989930135,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计63%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7987721645461591,"real":0.4393,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.799（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.04 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 23% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 115.37 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 458 公里 = 3,857 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.26 节/列 = 54,986 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1026 座/列 = 395.77 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 63.1% = 249.90 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.799 = 109.79 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.6 元 = 39.35 亿元\n线路维护 = 458 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 13.74 亿元\n折旧 = 458 公里 × 1.04 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.91 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 23%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 3.67 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 109.79 − 39.35 − 13.74 − 7.91 − 3.67 = +45.12 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R140","name":"郑机城际","km":59,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"华中","via":"郑州,新郑机场","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.2846,"lo":-3.6045,"hi":-1.1629,"opProfit":0.2542,"opLo":-0.7899,"opHi":1.2998,"perKm":-387.21,"opPerKm":43.09,"pProb":0.006,"pProbOp":0.608,"rev":2.8748,"emuCost":0.8345,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":11.0,"2018":36.0,"2019":30.0,"2020":9.0,"2021":44.5,"2022":45.0,"2023":53.0,"2024":67.5,"2025":67.0,"2026":73.5},"cost":{"train":1.4406,"infra":1.18,"dep":1.2732,"int":1.2656},"sup":{"qJul":73.5,"qJan":62.5,"qYear":66.502,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 73.5 对、2026-01-31周六 62.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 66.5 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8.48,"seatsAvg":569.1,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：214列，郑开—机场贯通车含CRH3A-A 4节约15%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":540,"share":0.715,"label":"8节CRH380B/CRH6A等"},{"cars":4,"seats":230,"share":0.15,"label":"CRH3A-A"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.135,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":2864263,"carKm":24288947,"seatKm":1630051888},"dem":{"load":0.4929,"loadLo":0.38,"loadHi":0.6392,"prior":0.4929,"pkm":803419565,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.715649984928551,"real":0.3578,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.716（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 66.50 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 59 公里 = 286 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.48 节/列 = 2,429 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 569 座/列 = 16.30 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.3% = 8.03 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.716 = 2.87 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.8 元 = 1.44 亿元\n线路维护 = 59 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.18 亿元\n折旧 = 59 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.27 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 1.27 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.87 − 1.44 − 1.18 − 1.27 − 1.27 = -2.28 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R141","name":"郑机城际南延","km":17,"speed":200,"opened":"2020","region":"华中","via":"新郑机场,郑州航空港","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-0.7805,"lo":-1.0903,"hi":-0.5171,"opProfit":-0.049,"opLo":-0.2907,"opHi":0.1779,"perKm":-459.14,"opPerKm":-28.84,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.392,"rev":0.6177,"emuCost":0.1892,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":16.0,"2022":43.5,"2023":22.5,"2024":38.0,"2025":50.5,"2026":57.0},"cost":{"train":0.3267,"infra":0.34,"dep":0.3669,"int":0.3647},"sup":{"qJul":57.0,"qJan":50.0,"qYear":52.342,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 57.0 对、2026-01-31周六 50.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 52.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8.48,"seatsAvg":569.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"按郑机城际同一交路车型。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":540,"share":0.715,"label":"8节"},{"cars":4,"seats":230,"share":0.15,"label":"CRH3A-A"},{"cars":16,"seats":1100,"share":0.135,"label":"16节"}],"trainKm":649570,"carKm":5508357,"seatKm":369670529},"dem":{"load":0.4743,"loadLo":0.3623,"loadHi":0.621,"prior":0.4743,"pkm":175348270,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计47%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.704525319650913,"real":0.3523,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.705（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 52.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 17 公里 = 65 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.48 节/列 = 551 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 569 座/列 = 3.70 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 47.4% = 1.75 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.705 = 0.62 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.8 元 = 0.33 亿元\n线路维护 = 17 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.34 亿元\n折旧 = 17 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.37 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 0.36 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.62 − 0.33 − 0.34 − 0.37 − 0.36 = -0.78 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R142","name":"郑开城际","km":57.14,"speed":200,"opened":"2014","region":"华中","via":"郑州,开封","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.3181,"lo":-4.2125,"hi":-2.686,"opProfit":-0.7459,"opLo":-1.258,"opHi":-0.3177,"perKm":-580.7,"opPerKm":-130.54,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.011,"rev":1.1354,"emuCost":0.3692,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":10.5,"2018":16.5,"2019":11.5,"2020":4.5,"2021":11.5,"2022":17.5,"2023":18.5,"2024":21.5,"2025":54.5,"2026":54.5},"cost":{"train":0.7385,"infra":1.1428,"dep":1.29,"int":1.2822},"sup":{"qJul":54.5,"qJan":45.5,"qYear":46.7,"kind":"obs","text":"12306逐车统计：工作日93列、周末109列（C字头85/101），按首年分段加权全年93.4列/日＝46.7对/日；全部C车跑完57.14公里全程，约70%续开至新郑机场/航空港。知乎7月周六54.5对含跨线D/G，不直接采用。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.4,"seatsAvg":428.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"CRH3A-A 4节230座（含站立722人）共5列；8节车（CRH6A 549、CRH380B 556、CR400BF 576、CR300BF 613）按560座。车辆周转上限推得4节车约占40%列次（区间22–60%），未见重联。平均约428座/列、6.4节/列。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":230,"share":0.4,"label":"CRH3A-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":560,"share":0.6,"label":"8节动车组"}],"trainKm":1947960,"carKm":12466942,"seatKm":833726769},"dem":{"load":0.4421,"loadLo":0.3808,"loadHi":0.5134,"prior":0.3632,"pkm":368622225,"kind":"der","text":"郑开城际全线贯通首年（2025-03-15至2026-03-14）发送805.9万人次（上车站计一次）；按OD结构平均乘距约47.6公里（区间40–53），得3.83亿人公里。 换算本线口径约46%；与拟合曲线36%按精度合并（本线证据权重83%）。","evidence":[{"text":"中新网 郑开城际首年805.9万人次","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2026/03-16/10587699.shtml"},{"text":"本项目郑州城际复核（12306逐车、车型、OD）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.35,"ratio":0.88,"real":0.308,"kind":"obs","text":"郑州东—开封二等座20元，按57.14公里约0.35元/公里（源图0.50为计价口径上限，不采用）。 实收系数取0.88（扣9%增值税及少量折扣；4节车无一等座溢价）。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 46.70 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 57.14 公里 = 195 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.40 节/列 = 1,247 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 428 座/列 = 8.34 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.2% = 3.69 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.350 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.880 = 1.14 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.74 亿元\n线路维护 = 57.14 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.14 亿元\n折旧 = 57.14 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.29 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 1.28 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.14 − 0.74 − 1.14 − 1.29 − 1.28 = -3.32 亿元","notes":["旧版按全8节530座、50公里、平均乘距32.9公里得27.9%；只把座位换成230座得64.4%，两者都不是实际。本版按列次车型混用、57.14公里全程和平均乘距47.6公里重算。","按座位客座率约42%，按含站立定员的满载率约22%。","更正：km 由 50 改为 57.14——全线郑州东—宋城路57.14公里（2025-03-15贯通），旧登记50公里只到开封原终点"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"中国铁路郑州局官方：郑开城际加密","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/baijiahao_30942615","note":"2025-06-06，郑开两地56.5对；宋城路段最多93列，走廊总数不能直接作为单段日均。"},{"title":"中国铁路：郑开城际投入CRH3A-A（4节230座，最大载客722人）","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30750571"},{"title":"郑州市政府：共5列CRH3A-A","url":"https://www.zhengzhou.gov.cn/news1/9263922.jhtml"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R143","name":"荆荆高铁","km":77,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华中","via":"荆门,荆州","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.5897,"lo":-6.9623,"hi":-4.6247,"opProfit":-1.9706,"opLo":-2.8868,"opHi":-1.2807,"perKm":-725.94,"opPerKm":-255.92,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.8441,"emuCost":0.2794,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":11.0,"2026":6.5},"cost":{"train":0.5047,"infra":2.31,"dep":1.815,"int":1.8041},"sup":{"qJul":6.5,"qJan":10.5,"qYear":8.38,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 6.5 对、2026-01-31周六 10.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 8.4 对/日。","longRate":0.846,"carsAvg":15.022,"seatsAvg":1083.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率85%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.15400000000000003},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.846}],"trainKm":471040,"carKm":7075866,"seatKm":510489383},"dem":{"load":0.3893,"loadLo":0.3078,"loadHi":0.4923,"prior":0.3893,"pkm":198725286,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计39%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.6534992239116326,"real":0.4248,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.653（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.42 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 8.38 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 77 公里 = 47 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.02 节/列 = 708 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1084 座/列 = 5.10 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.9% = 1.99 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.653 = 0.84 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.3 元 = 0.50 亿元\n线路维护 = 77 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 2.31 亿元\n折旧 = 77 公里 × 1.42 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.82 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 1.80 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.84 − 0.50 − 2.31 − 1.82 − 1.80 = -5.59 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"荆荆高铁首月运营","url":"https://www.hb-railway.cn/newsCenter/groupNews/202501/t20250110_144720.shtml","note":"首月10对，模型现期25对非观测。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R144","name":"襄荆高铁","km":116,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华中","via":"襄阳,荆门","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.1266,"lo":-10.5544,"hi":-6.3641,"opProfit":-1.6377,"opLo":-3.256,"opHi":-0.2619,"perKm":-700.57,"opPerKm":-141.18,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.068,"rev":3.3765,"emuCost":0.8354,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":20.5},"cost":{"train":1.5342,"infra":3.48,"dep":3.2543,"int":3.2347},"sup":{"qJul":20.5,"qJan":22.5,"qYear":21.095,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 20.5 对、2026-01-31周六 22.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 21.1 对/日。","longRate":0.46299999999999997,"carsAvg":11.843,"seatsAvg":844.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率46%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.537},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.46299999999999997}],"trainKm":1786325,"carKm":21155264,"seatKm":1508327834},"dem":{"load":0.4374,"loadLo":0.3523,"loadHi":0.543,"prior":0.4374,"pkm":659759478,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计44%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7500000000000001,"ratio":0.6823724725676101,"real":0.5118,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.75 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.682（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.69 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 21.09 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 116 公里 = 179 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.84 节/列 = 2,116 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 844 座/列 = 15.08 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.7% = 6.60 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.750 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.682 = 3.38 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.6 元 = 1.53 亿元\n线路维护 = 116 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 3.48 亿元\n折旧 = 116 公里 × 1.69 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.25 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 3.23 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.38 − 1.53 − 3.48 − 3.25 − 3.23 = -8.13 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R145","name":"常益长高铁已开通段","km":154,"speed":350,"opened":"2022","region":"华中","via":"常德,益阳,长沙西","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.9496,"lo":-12.5362,"hi":-6.3656,"opProfit":-0.4369,"opLo":-2.8953,"opHi":1.8497,"perKm":-581.14,"opPerKm":-28.37,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.374,"rev":7.2643,"emuCost":1.6368,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":30.5,"2024":46.5,"2025":46.0,"2026":43.0},"cost":{"train":3.0812,"infra":4.62,"dep":4.2692,"int":4.2435},"sup":{"qJul":43.0,"qJan":41.0,"qYear":41.135,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 43.0 对、2026-01-31周六 41.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 41.1 对/日。","longRate":0.11599999999999999,"carsAvg":8.963,"seatsAvg":627.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率12%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.884},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.11599999999999999}],"trainKm":4624397,"carKm":41447543,"seatKm":2901808929},"dem":{"load":0.5544,"loadLo":0.4671,"loadHi":0.658,"prior":0.5544,"pkm":1608792418,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计55%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7525642289552168,"real":0.4515,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.753（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.67 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 41.13 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 154 公里 = 462 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.96 节/列 = 4,145 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 628 座/列 = 29.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 55.4% = 16.09 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.753 = 7.26 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.2 元 = 3.08 亿元\n线路维护 = 154 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.62 亿元\n折旧 = 154 公里 × 1.67 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.27 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 4.24 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 7.26 − 3.08 − 4.62 − 4.27 − 4.24 = -8.95 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R146","name":"长株潭城际","km":105,"speed":200,"opened":"2016–2017","region":"华中","via":"长沙西,长沙,暮云,株洲/暮云,湘潭","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.0161,"lo":-12.5202,"hi":-8.3337,"opProfit":-1.5359,"opLo":-2.4672,"opHi":-0.7667,"perKm":-953.91,"opPerKm":-146.27,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.005,"rev":1.9645,"emuCost":0.6264,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":14.875,"2018":32.71153846153846,"2019":40.26923076923077,"2020":45.41826923076923,"2021":56.45192307692308,"2022":54.70192307692308,"2023":59.38461538461539,"2024":63.73076923076923,"2025":59.14423076923077,"2026":58.25480769230769},"cost":{"train":1.4003,"infra":2.1,"dep":4.2529,"int":4.2273},"sup":{"qJul":58.25480769230769,"qJan":59.03365384615385,"qYear":57.481,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 58.3 对、2026-01-31周六 59.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 57.5 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4.8,"seatsAvg":286.4,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：S68xx 169列中有车型的91列显示4节CJ6/CRH6F-A约八成（各240座，含站立681–875人）；公司自有CJ6 15列。高峰重联未体现，平均约286座/列。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.8,"label":"CJ6/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":472,"share":0.2,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":4405925,"carKm":21148440,"seatKm":1261856896},"dem":{"load":0.5416,"loadLo":0.4679,"loadHi":0.627,"prior":0.3782,"pkm":683473141,"kind":"der","text":"长株潭城际2023年1774.8万人次（本线1213.3万+跨线561.5万）、2024年1968.2万人次；本线客票收入1.66亿元÷本线旅客约13.7元/人，按约0.38元/公里对应平均乘距约36公里；2023年约6.4亿人公里，到2026年按+17%（2024年+11%）取约7.5亿人公里。 换算本线口径约60%；与拟合曲线38%按精度合并（本线证据权重75%）。","evidence":[{"text":"湖南国资委 长株潭2023客流","url":"https://gzw.hunan.gov.cn/gzw/gzjg/gqdt/202401/t20240104_32618683.html"},{"text":"长株潭2021工作日42.3%、周末56%（人数÷座位口径）","url":"https://umt1998.tongji.edu.cn/cn/article/pdf/preview/10.16037/j.1007-869x.2022.10.001.pdf"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.5748450794093353,"real":0.2874,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.575（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.44 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 57.48 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 105 公里 = 441 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.80 节/列 = 2,115 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 286 座/列 = 12.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.2% = 6.83 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.575 = 1.96 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 1.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 105 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.10 亿元\n折旧 = 105 公里 × 2.44 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.25 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 4.23 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.96 − 1.40 − 2.10 − 4.25 − 4.23 = -10.02 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长株潭城际全线开通","url":"https://wap.sasac.gov.cn/n2588025/n2588124/c8422899/content.html","note":"全线约105公里含分支。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"湖南国资委：长株潭城际2023年运营","url":"https://gzw.hunan.gov.cn/gzw/gzjg/gqdt/202401/t20240104_32618683.html","note":"2023运客1774.8万人，本线1213.3万、跨线561.5万；没有客公里分配。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R147","name":"怀邵衡铁路","km":318,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"华中","via":"怀化,邵阳,衡阳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-15.8164,"lo":-20.2043,"hi":-12.7354,"opProfit":-5.0801,"opLo":-7.9798,"opHi":-2.7042,"perKm":-497.37,"opPerKm":-159.75,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.004,"rev":4.3995,"emuCost":1.8554,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":13.70846394984326,"2020":15.297805642633229,"2021":18.092476489028215,"2022":17.043887147335422,"2023":17.778996865203762,"2024":17.543887147335422,"2025":22.573667711598745,"2026":23.800940438871475},"cost":{"train":3.1196,"infra":6.36,"dep":5.3844,"int":5.3519},"sup":{"qJul":23.800940438871475,"qJan":21.28996865203762,"qYear":22.063,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 23.8 对、2026-01-31周六 21.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 22.1 对/日。","longRate":0.3180405663483701,"carsAvg":10.544,"seatsAvg":790.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率32%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6819594336516299},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.3180405663483701}],"trainKm":5121742,"carKm":54005305,"seatKm":4050397895},"dem":{"load":0.4084,"loadLo":0.3015,"loadHi":0.5531,"prior":0.4084,"pkm":1654081161,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计41%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4000000000000001,"ratio":0.6649526400755481,"real":0.266,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.40 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.665（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.02 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 22.06 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 318 公里 = 512 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.54 节/列 = 5,401 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 791 座/列 = 40.50 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.8% = 16.54 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.400 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.665 = 4.40 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.5 元 = 3.12 亿元\n线路维护 = 318 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.36 亿元\n折旧 = 318 公里 × 1.02 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.38 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 5.35 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.40 − 3.12 − 6.36 − 5.38 − 5.35 = -15.82 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R148","name":"娄邵铁路新线","km":99.2,"speed":200,"opened":"2016","region":"华中","via":"娄底,邵阳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-4.788,"lo":-6.0854,"hi":-3.8101,"opProfit":-1.603,"opLo":-2.5199,"opHi":-0.8324,"perKm":-482.66,"opPerKm":-161.59,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.005,"rev":1.4848,"emuCost":0.657,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":8.0,"2018":11.5,"2019":20.5,"2020":22.5,"2021":23.943181818181817,"2022":14.943181818181818,"2023":19.295454545454547,"2024":24.5,"2025":23.0,"2026":26.0},"cost":{"train":1.1038,"infra":1.984,"dep":1.5973,"int":1.5877},"sup":{"qJul":26.0,"qJan":24.795454545454547,"qYear":24.875,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 26.0 对、2026-01-31周六 24.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 24.9 对/日。","longRate":0.327,"carsAvg":10.616,"seatsAvg":796.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率33%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.673},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.327}],"trainKm":1801327,"carKm":19122892,"seatKm":1434216898},"dem":{"load":0.4174,"loadLo":0.3096,"loadHi":0.5627,"prior":0.4174,"pkm":598631519,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计42%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6703626227748286,"real":0.248,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.670（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.97 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 24.87 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 99.2 公里 = 180 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.62 节/列 = 1,912 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 796 座/列 = 14.34 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 41.7% = 5.99 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.670 = 1.48 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 1.10 亿元\n线路维护 = 99.2 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.98 亿元\n折旧 = 99.2 公里 × 0.97 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.60 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 1.59 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.48 − 1.10 − 1.98 − 1.60 − 1.59 = -4.79 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R149","name":"衡柳铁路","km":497,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"华中-华南","via":"衡阳,祁东,祁阳,永州,东安,全州,桂林,柳州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-18.8417,"lo":-25.4027,"hi":-13.1818,"opProfit":-7.3262,"opLo":-12.8492,"opHi":-2.1118,"perKm":-379.11,"opPerKm":-147.41,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.043,"rev":12.2905,"emuCost":5.844,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":28.01104417670683,"2018":29.91164658634538,"2019":31.598393574297187,"2020":22.771084337349397,"2021":36.463855421686745,"2022":31.27309236947791,"2023":33.941767068273094,"2024":36.899598393574294,"2025":40.83132530120482,"2026":38.77911646586345},"cost":{"train":9.6767,"infra":9.94,"dep":5.7751,"int":5.7404},"sup":{"qJul":38.77911646586345,"qJan":39.429718875502004,"qYear":38.33,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 38.8 对、2026-01-31周六 39.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.3 对/日。","longRate":0.5289330468102733,"carsAvg":12.231,"seatsAvg":917.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率53%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4710669531897267},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5289330468102733}],"trainKm":13906675,"carKm":170098998,"seatKm":12757424861},"dem":{"load":0.4503,"loadLo":0.3397,"loadHi":0.5969,"prior":0.4503,"pkm":5744925982,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6901170276230968,"real":0.2139,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.690（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.70 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.33 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 497 公里 = 1,391 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.23 节/列 = 17,010 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 917 座/列 = 127.57 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.0% = 57.45 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.690 = 12.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 9.68 亿元\n线路维护 = 497 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 9.94 亿元\n折旧 = 497 公里 × 0.70 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.78 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 5.74 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.29 − 9.68 − 9.94 − 5.78 − 5.74 = -18.84 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R150","name":"张吉怀高铁","km":246,"speed":350,"opened":"2021","region":"华中","via":"张家界,吉首,怀化","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.2368,"lo":-20.3329,"hi":-11.4907,"opProfit":-2.86,"opLo":-6.6121,"opHi":0.0795,"perKm":-619.38,"opPerKm":-116.26,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.11,"rev":8.6928,"emuCost":2.248,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":18.420408163265307,"2023":17.34081632653061,"2024":21.289795918367346,"2025":31.261224489795918,"2026":29.024489795918367},"cost":{"train":4.1728,"infra":7.38,"dep":6.2071,"int":6.1697},"sup":{"qJul":29.024489795918367,"qJan":33.02448979591837,"qYear":30.454,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 29.0 对、2026-01-31周六 33.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 30.5 对/日。","longRate":0.290247081985656,"carsAvg":10.409,"seatsAvg":736.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率29%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.709752918014344},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.290247081985656}],"trainKm":5468929,"carKm":56926363,"seatKm":4027343758},"dem":{"load":0.5313,"loadLo":0.4437,"loadHi":0.6362,"prior":0.5313,"pkm":2139623642,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计53%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7386841211253895,"real":0.4063,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.739（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 30.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 246 公里 = 547 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.41 节/列 = 5,693 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 736 座/列 = 40.27 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.1% = 21.40 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.739 = 8.69 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 4.17 亿元\n线路维护 = 246 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.38 亿元\n折旧 = 246 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.21 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 6.17 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 8.69 − 4.17 − 7.38 − 6.21 − 6.17 = -15.24 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R151","name":"黔张常铁路","km":339,"speed":200,"opened":"2019","region":"华中-西南","via":"黔江,龙山,张家界,常德","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-16.4635,"lo":-21.5343,"hi":-12.6786,"opProfit":-4.0083,"opLo":-7.489,"opHi":-0.7525,"perKm":-485.65,"opPerKm":-118.24,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.051,"rev":6.8166,"emuCost":2.3738,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":8.061946902654867,"2021":7.868731563421829,"2022":0.0,"2023":13.902654867256636,"2024":17.853982300884955,"2025":27.94542772861357,"2026":31.976401179941004},"cost":{"train":4.0449,"infra":6.78,"dep":6.2464,"int":6.2088},"sup":{"qJul":31.976401179941004,"qJan":28.749262536873157,"qYear":29.715,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 32.0 对、2026-01-31周六 28.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 29.7 对/日。","longRate":0.17448874538745388,"carsAvg":9.396,"seatsAvg":704.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率17%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.8255112546125462},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.17448874538745388}],"trainKm":7353629,"carKm":69094040,"seatKm":5182053016},"dem":{"load":0.4309,"loadLo":0.3218,"loadHi":0.5768,"prior":0.4309,"pkm":2232745901,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计43%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6784429410387905,"real":0.3053,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.678（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.11 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 29.72 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 339 公里 = 735 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.40 节/列 = 6,909 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 705 座/列 = 51.82 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.1% = 22.33 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.678 = 6.82 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 4.04 亿元\n线路维护 = 339 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.78 亿元\n折旧 = 339 公里 × 1.11 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.25 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 6.21 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.82 − 4.04 − 6.78 − 6.25 − 6.21 = -16.46 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R152","name":"渝厦重庆东黔江段","km":242,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"西南","via":"重庆东,涪陵,武隆,彭水,黔江","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-22.0221,"lo":-28.0349,"hi":-17.8565,"opProfit":-4.3196,"opLo":-7.6625,"opHi":-1.497,"perKm":-910.0,"opPerKm":-178.49,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.029,"rev":6.6725,"emuCost":1.9989,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":21.0,"2026":33.0},"cost":{"train":3.732,"infra":7.26,"dep":8.878,"int":8.8245},"sup":{"qJul":33.0,"qJan":27.06611570247934,"qYear":29.358,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 33.0 对、2026-01-31周六 27.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 29.4 对/日。","longRate":0.212,"carsAvg":9.76,"seatsAvg":687.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率21%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.788},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.212}],"trainKm":5186424,"carKm":50617421,"seatKm":3565666294},"dem":{"load":0.4261,"loadLo":0.3511,"loadHi":0.5172,"prior":0.4628,"pkm":1519431110,"kind":"der","text":"渝厦高铁重庆东—黔江段首年（2025-06至2026-06）545万人次、平均23对/日；业主所称“日常78%”是跨线列车全程售票口径，不采用。 换算本线口径约31%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.20）；与拟合曲线46%按精度合并（本线证据权重23%）。","evidence":[{"text":"工人日报 渝厦重黔段一周年","url":"https://www.workercn.cn/c/2026-06-28/8834348.shtml"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6500000000000001,"ratio":0.675603438229369,"real":0.4391,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.676（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.21 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 29.36 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 242 公里 = 519 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.76 节/列 = 5,062 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 688 座/列 = 35.66 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 42.6% = 15.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.676 = 6.67 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.9 元 = 3.73 亿元\n线路维护 = 242 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 7.26 亿元\n折旧 = 242 公里 × 2.21 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.88 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 8.82 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.67 − 3.73 − 7.26 − 8.88 − 8.82 = -22.02 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"重庆东黔江首年运营","url":"https://www.cbg.cn/a/4933/20260627/352073c1acb74f699db0927f6735dfe6.html","note":"1.68万列、545万人次，约23对／日。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R153","name":"渝万城际","km":247,"speed":250,"opened":"2016","region":"西南","via":"重庆,长寿,垫江,梁平,万州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-3.587,"lo":-10.301,"hi":3.9713,"opProfit":4.6705,"opLo":-1.4995,"opHi":10.9742,"perKm":-145.22,"opPerKm":189.09,"pProb":0.251,"pProbOp":0.823,"rev":18.1251,"emuCost":4.8026,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":21.0,"2018":21.0,"2019":23.0,"2020":28.0,"2021":35.0,"2022":60.0,"2023":66.26938775510204,"2024":54.63469387755102,"2025":71.13469387755102,"2026":76.76938775510204},"cost":{"train":8.5146,"infra":4.94,"dep":4.1412,"int":4.1163},"sup":{"qJul":76.76938775510204,"qJan":72.5,"qYear":73.089,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 76.8 对、2026-01-31周六 72.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 73.1 对/日。","longRate":0.3259121939548608,"carsAvg":10.607,"seatsAvg":795.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率33%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6740878060451392},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.3259121939548608}],"trainKm":13178611,"carKm":139789452,"seatKm":10484208896},"dem":{"load":0.5002,"loadLo":0.3871,"loadHi":0.6463,"prior":0.5002,"pkm":5244217287,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48000000000000004,"ratio":0.7200425734019408,"real":0.3456,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.720（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.01 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 73.09 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 247 公里 = 1,318 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.61 节/列 = 13,979 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 796 座/列 = 104.84 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.0% = 52.44 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.720 = 18.13 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 8.51 亿元\n线路维护 = 247 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.94 亿元\n折旧 = 247 公里 × 1.01 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.14 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 4.12 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 18.13 − 8.51 − 4.94 − 4.14 − 4.12 = -3.59 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R154","name":"渝利铁路","km":264,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"西南-华中","via":"重庆,涪陵,石柱,利川","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-10.6123,"lo":-15.4478,"hi":-6.7228,"opProfit":-1.6117,"opLo":-5.5694,"opHi":2.0648,"perKm":-401.98,"opPerKm":-61.05,"pProb":0.001,"pProbOp":0.284,"rev":10.0547,"emuCost":3.8957,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":38.39208633093525,"2018":37.39208633093525,"2019":41.39208633093525,"2020":26.485611510791365,"2021":39.960431654676256,"2022":38.92446043165467,"2023":40.5863309352518,"2024":46.08812949640288,"2025":46.35971223021583,"2026":43.68345323741007},"cost":{"train":6.3865,"infra":5.28,"dep":4.5139,"int":4.4867},"sup":{"qJul":43.68345323741007,"qJan":44.330935251798564,"qYear":43.135,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 43.7 对、2026-01-31周六 44.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 43.1 对/日。","longRate":0.7050166337285902,"carsAvg":13.64,"seatsAvg":1023.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率71%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.29498336627140975},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.7050166337285902}],"trainKm":8313005,"carKm":113390493,"seatKm":8504287009},"dem":{"load":0.4594,"loadLo":0.3482,"loadHi":0.6061,"prior":0.4594,"pkm":3906887462,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6955655917146975,"real":0.2574,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.696（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.03 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 43.14 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 264 公里 = 831 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.64 节/列 = 11,339 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1023 座/列 = 85.04 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.9% = 39.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.696 = 10.05 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 18.1 元 = 6.39 亿元\n线路维护 = 264 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.28 亿元\n折旧 = 264 公里 × 1.03 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.51 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 4.49 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.05 − 6.39 − 5.28 − 4.51 − 4.49 = -10.61 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R155","name":"宜万铁路连接走廊","km":377,"speed":175,"opened":"2010","region":"华中-西南","via":"宜昌,恩施,利川,万州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-9.1792,"lo":-15.2974,"hi":-3.4988,"opProfit":-1.692,"opLo":-7.4995,"opHi":3.9344,"perKm":-243.48,"opPerKm":-44.88,"pProb":0.024,"pProbOp":0.331,"rev":15.0406,"emuCost":5.7424,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":38.556363636363635,"2018":39.556363636363635,"2019":45.11272727272727,"2020":27.0,"2021":44.66909090909091,"2022":42.447272727272725,"2023":42.558181818181815,"2024":48.11454545454546,"2025":49.336363636363636,"2026":49.558181818181815},"cost":{"train":9.1927,"infra":7.54,"dep":3.7549,"int":3.7323},"sup":{"qJul":49.558181818181815,"qJan":44.336363636363636,"qYear":45.943,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 49.6 对、2026-01-31周六 44.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.9 对/日。","longRate":0.6523778112044613,"carsAvg":13.219,"seatsAvg":991.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率65%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.34762218879553874},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6523778112044613}],"trainKm":12643988,"carKm":167141162,"seatKm":12535587171},"dem":{"load":0.4643,"loadLo":0.3528,"loadHi":0.611,"prior":0.4643,"pkm":5819816181,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.36999999999999994,"ratio":0.6984821327562093,"real":0.2584,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.698（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.60 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.94 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 377 公里 = 1,264 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.22 节/列 = 16,714 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 991 座/列 = 125.36 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.4% = 58.20 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.698 = 15.04 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.16 元 + 列车公里 × 17.8 元 = 9.19 亿元\n线路维护 = 377 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.54 亿元\n折旧 = 377 公里 × 0.60 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.75 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 3.73 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 15.04 − 9.19 − 7.54 − 3.75 − 3.73 = -9.18 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R156","name":"成渝高铁","km":308,"speed":350,"opened":"2015","region":"西南","via":"成都,资阳,资中,内江,荣昌,永川,璧山,重庆","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":14.1829,"lo":-1.9871,"hi":27.3807,"opProfit":25.2637,"opLo":12.0002,"opHi":38.9191,"perKm":460.49,"opPerKm":820.25,"pProb":0.877,"pProbOp":0.997,"rev":55.0041,"emuCost":11.2253,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":30.71571906354515,"2018":53.812709030100336,"2019":74.8628762541806,"2020":63.05351170568562,"2021":88.23745819397993,"2022":92.19565217391305,"2023":87.35284280936455,"2024":85.11204013377926,"2025":99.16889632107024,"2026":103.61705685618729},"cost":{"train":20.5004,"infra":9.24,"dep":6.8,"int":4.2807},"sup":{"qJul":103.61705685618729,"qJan":98.84949832775919,"qYear":99.149,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 103.6 对、2026-01-31周六 98.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 99.1 对/日。","longRate":0.5724252699191452,"carsAvg":12.751,"seatsAvg":912.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.4275747300808548},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5724252699191452}],"trainKm":22292665,"carKm":284256665,"seatKm":20347982161},"dem":{"load":0.6204,"loadLo":0.5362,"loadHi":0.7179,"prior":0.6204,"pkm":12624480760,"kind":"curve","text":"成渝高铁2025年运送超3200万人次（下界）；成都—重庆全程客流比例高，alpha取0.65。 换算本线口径下界约31%，拟合曲线62%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"成都局成渝高铁客流","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5499999999999999,"ratio":0.7921712849541017,"real":0.4357,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.792（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.33 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 32% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 99.15 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 308 公里 = 2,229 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.75 节/列 = 28,426 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 913 座/列 = 203.48 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 62.0% = 126.24 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.792 = 55.00 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.4 元 = 20.50 亿元\n线路维护 = 308 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 9.24 亿元\n折旧 = 308 公里 × 1.33 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.80 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 32%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.28 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 55.00 − 20.50 − 9.24 − 6.80 − 4.28 = +14.18 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"成渝间动车日均超过100对","url":"https://www.cq.gov.cn/zt/cyscjjq/xtfz/ggfw/202508/t20250827_14941661.html","note":"成渝间有不同路径，全线等效系数为假设。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R157","name":"遂成快速铁路","km":148,"speed":200,"opened":"2009","region":"西南","via":"成都,大英,遂宁","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-0.5993,"lo":-4.1131,"hi":3.3025,"opProfit":1.5072,"opLo":-1.8999,"opHi":4.7901,"perKm":-40.5,"opPerKm":101.83,"pProb":0.405,"pProbOp":0.701,"rev":10.2953,"emuCost":3.543,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":39.0,"2018":41.0,"2019":39.5,"2020":38.5,"2021":42.0,"2022":52.0,"2023":56.0,"2024":64.5,"2025":72.5,"2026":76.5},"cost":{"train":5.8281,"infra":2.96,"dep":1.0564,"int":1.0501},"sup":{"qJul":76.5,"qJan":72.0,"qYear":72.709,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 76.5 对、2026-01-31周六 72.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 72.7 对/日。","longRate":0.6409999999999999,"carsAvg":13.128,"seatsAvg":984.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率64%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.3590000000000001},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6409999999999999}],"trainKm":7855453,"carKm":103126392,"seatKm":7734479368},"dem":{"load":0.4998,"loadLo":0.3868,"loadHi":0.6459,"prior":0.4998,"pkm":3865673154,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7198001611597568,"real":0.2663,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.720（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.43 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约17年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 72.71 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 148 公里 = 786 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.13 节/列 = 10,313 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 985 座/列 = 77.34 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.0% = 38.66 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.720 = 10.30 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.7 元 = 5.83 亿元\n线路维护 = 148 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.96 亿元\n折旧 = 148 公里 × 0.43 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.06 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通17年）× 3.3% = 1.05 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.30 − 5.83 − 2.96 − 1.06 − 1.05 = -0.60 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R158","name":"遂渝铁路","km":128,"speed":200,"opened":"2006–2012","region":"西南","via":"遂宁,潼南,合川,重庆","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.847,"lo":-5.7239,"hi":-2.1623,"opProfit":-1.2143,"opLo":-2.8743,"opHi":0.4347,"perKm":-300.55,"opPerKm":-94.87,"pProb":0.004,"pProbOp":0.171,"rev":3.9473,"emuCost":1.5824,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":21.90506329113924,"2018":28.949367088607595,"2019":28.658227848101266,"2020":22.21518987341772,"2021":30.60759493670886,"2022":30.582278481012658,"2023":34.31645569620253,"2024":34.96835443037975,"2025":38.68987341772152,"2026":37.5126582278481},"cost":{"train":2.6016,"infra":2.56,"dep":1.3203,"int":1.3124},"sup":{"qJul":37.5126582278481,"qJan":38.65822784810127,"qYear":37.338,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 37.5 对、2026-01-31周六 38.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.3 对/日。 部分区段为源图作者估计值。","longRate":0.6501631516787582,"carsAvg":13.201,"seatsAvg":990.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率65%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.34983684832124184},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.6501631516787582}],"trainKm":3488868,"carKm":46057608,"seatKm":3454320598},"dem":{"load":0.4483,"loadLo":0.3379,"loadHi":0.5948,"prior":0.4483,"pkm":1548596450,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.6889093052320167,"real":0.2549,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.689（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.62 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约20年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 37.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 128 公里 = 349 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.20 节/列 = 4,606 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 990 座/列 = 34.54 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 44.8% = 15.49 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.689 = 3.95 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.8 元 = 2.60 亿元\n线路维护 = 128 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.56 亿元\n折旧 = 128 公里 × 0.62 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.32 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通20年）× 3.3% = 1.31 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.95 − 2.60 − 2.56 − 1.32 − 1.31 = -3.85 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R159","name":"成绵乐铁路","km":314,"speed":250,"opened":"2014","region":"西南","via":"江油,绵阳,德阳,成都,眉山,乐山,峨眉","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.1282,"lo":-13.3179,"hi":11.3277,"opProfit":11.3832,"opLo":0.9268,"opHi":22.4191,"perKm":-67.78,"opPerKm":362.52,"pProb":0.42,"pProbOp":0.918,"rev":33.5052,"emuCost":9.058,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":17.910828025477706,"2018":35.63057324840764,"2019":44.48089171974522,"2020":55.66242038216561,"2021":82.01910828025478,"2022":78.7468152866242,"2023":81.9124203821656,"2024":91.80095541401273,"2025":96.35191082802548,"2026":96.87579617834395},"cost":{"train":15.8419,"infra":6.28,"dep":6.7761,"int":6.7353},"sup":{"qJul":96.87579617834395,"qJan":95.62101910828025,"qYear":94.308,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 96.9 对、2026-01-31周六 95.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 94.3 对/日。","longRate":0.524528140307045,"carsAvg":12.196,"seatsAvg":914.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.475471859692955},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.524528140307045}],"trainKm":21617224,"carKm":263648525,"seatKm":19773639370},"dem":{"load":0.52,"loadLo":0.4065,"loadHi":0.665,"prior":0.52,"pkm":10281400003,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4452578952046002,"ratio":0.7318932879409744,"real":0.3259,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.732（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 94.31 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 314 公里 = 2,162 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.20 节/列 = 26,365 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 915 座/列 = 197.74 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.0% = 102.81 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.445 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.732 = 33.51 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 15.84 亿元\n线路维护 = 314 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.28 亿元\n折旧 = 314 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.78 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 6.74 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 33.51 − 15.84 − 6.28 − 6.78 − 6.74 = -2.13 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R160","name":"西成高铁西江新建段","km":509,"speed":250,"opened":"2017","region":"西北-西南","via":"西安北,汉中,广元,江油","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-4.0574,"lo":-22.2102,"hi":16.3159,"opProfit":18.3503,"opLo":1.4988,"opHi":35.4849,"perKm":-79.71,"opPerKm":360.52,"pProb":0.397,"pProbOp":0.925,"rev":51.5362,"emuCost":13.0822,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":51.99604743083004,"2019":61.0,"2020":53.58102766798419,"2021":72.6699604743083,"2022":62.15217391304348,"2023":76.01778656126483,"2024":80.4407114624506,"2025":88.96245059288538,"2026":91.81027667984189},"cost":{"train":23.0059,"infra":10.18,"dep":11.2377,"int":11.17},"sup":{"qJul":91.81027667984189,"qJan":90.03359683794466,"qYear":89.081,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 91.8 对、2026-01-31周六 90.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 89.1 对/日。","longRate":0.43799526433614605,"carsAvg":11.504,"seatsAvg":862.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率44%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.562004735663854},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.43799526433614605}],"trainKm":33099935,"carKm":380780395,"seatKm":28558529651},"dem":{"load":0.5155,"loadLo":0.4022,"loadHi":0.6609,"prior":0.5155,"pkm":14723054411,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48000000000000004,"ratio":0.7292444473658329,"real":0.35,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.729（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.33 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约9年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 89.08 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 509 公里 = 3,310 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.50 节/列 = 38,078 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 863 座/列 = 285.59 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.6% = 147.23 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.729 = 51.54 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 23.01 亿元\n线路维护 = 509 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 10.18 亿元\n折旧 = 509 公里 × 1.33 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 11.24 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通9年）× 3.3% = 11.17 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 51.54 − 23.01 − 10.18 − 11.24 − 11.17 = -4.06 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"西成八周年","url":"https://caijing.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/10/WS69390e15a310942cc4995e3b.html","note":"通道累计量，不能重复分配共享段。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R161","name":"成贵高铁乐贵新建段","km":515,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"西南","via":"乐山,宜宾,长宁,兴文,毕节,黔西,贵阳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-16.5894,"lo":-30.8856,"hi":-3.2917,"opProfit":9.3213,"opLo":-3.6049,"opHi":21.8677,"perKm":-322.12,"opPerKm":181.0,"pProb":0.066,"pProbOp":0.819,"rev":37.6194,"emuCost":10.275,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":4.12280701754386,"2020":39.84990253411306,"2021":57.44444444444444,"2022":52.05068226120858,"2023":56.38109161793372,"2024":66.5692007797271,"2025":66.80896686159844,"2026":70.33138401559454},"cost":{"train":17.9981,"infra":10.3,"dep":12.9945,"int":12.9162},"sup":{"qJul":70.33138401559454,"qJan":65.16374269005848,"qYear":66.328,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 70.3 对、2026-01-31周六 65.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 66.3 对/日。","longRate":0.49918989745011083,"carsAvg":11.994,"seatsAvg":899.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5008101025498892},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.49918989745011083}],"trainKm":24936018,"carKm":299070608,"seatKm":22430295607},"dem":{"load":0.4927,"loadLo":0.3799,"loadHi":0.639,"prior":0.4927,"pkm":11050870197,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.475760545400984,"ratio":0.715527799389043,"real":0.3404,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.716（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 66.33 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 515 公里 = 2,494 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.99 节/列 = 29,907 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 900 座/列 = 224.30 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.3% = 110.51 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.476 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.716 = 37.62 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.7 元 = 18.00 亿元\n线路维护 = 515 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 10.30 亿元\n折旧 = 515 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 12.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 12.92 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 37.62 − 18.00 − 10.30 − 12.99 − 12.92 = -16.59 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"成贵六周年","url":"https://cn.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202512/24/WS694babcda310942cc4998626.html","note":"通道累计量不等于新建515公里单年客公里。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R162","name":"成自高铁","km":176,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"西南","via":"成都,天府,资阳,自贡","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-13.6473,"lo":-18.7843,"hi":-9.9616,"opProfit":-0.0737,"opLo":-3.4494,"opHi":2.8034,"perKm":-775.42,"opPerKm":-4.19,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.456,"rev":9.7595,"emuCost":2.4543,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":39.0,"2025":52.5,"2026":52.0},"cost":{"train":4.5532,"infra":5.28,"dep":6.8073,"int":6.7663},"sup":{"qJul":52.0,"qJan":42.5,"qYear":46.186,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 52.0 对、2026-01-31周六 42.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 46.2 对/日。","longRate":0.298,"carsAvg":10.473,"seatsAvg":741.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率30%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.702},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.298}],"trainKm":5934009,"carKm":62149254,"seatKm":4398584468},"dem":{"load":0.5416,"loadLo":0.4541,"loadHi":0.646,"prior":0.5416,"pkm":2382229137,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7448729255996672,"real":0.4097,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.745（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.33 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 46.19 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 176 公里 = 593 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.47 节/列 = 6,215 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 741 座/列 = 43.99 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.2% = 23.82 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.745 = 9.76 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.5 元 = 4.55 亿元\n线路维护 = 176 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.28 亿元\n折旧 = 176 公里 × 2.33 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.81 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 6.77 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 9.76 − 4.55 − 5.28 − 6.81 − 6.77 = -13.65 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R163","name":"自宜高铁","km":82,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"西南","via":"自贡,宜宾","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-7.2464,"lo":-9.1223,"hi":-5.9736,"opProfit":-1.7366,"opLo":-2.78,"opHi":-0.8665,"perKm":-883.71,"opPerKm":-211.78,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.002,"rev":1.6507,"emuCost":0.5042,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":15.0,"2025":15.0,"2026":19.5},"cost":{"train":0.9273,"infra":2.46,"dep":2.7632,"int":2.7466},"sup":{"qJul":19.5,"qJan":18.0,"qYear":18.356,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 19.5 对、2026-01-31周六 18.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 18.4 对/日。","longRate":0.436,"carsAvg":11.619,"seatsAvg":827.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率44%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.5640000000000001},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.436}],"trainKm":1098805,"carKm":12766797,"seatKm":909261241},"dem":{"load":0.4702,"loadLo":0.3835,"loadHi":0.5764,"prior":0.4702,"pkm":427512453,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计47%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7020289798805166,"real":0.3861,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.702（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.03 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 18.36 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 82 公里 = 110 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.62 节/列 = 1,277 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 828 座/列 = 9.09 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 47.0% = 4.28 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.702 = 1.65 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.4 元 = 0.93 亿元\n线路维护 = 82 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 2.46 亿元\n折旧 = 82 公里 × 2.03 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.76 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 2.75 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.65 − 0.93 − 2.46 − 2.76 − 2.75 = -7.25 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R164","name":"内自泸城际","km":129,"speed":250,"opened":"2021","region":"西南","via":"内江,自贡,泸州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.2389,"lo":-10.4462,"hi":-6.6027,"opProfit":-1.8327,"opLo":-3.0921,"opHi":-0.6967,"perKm":-638.67,"opPerKm":-142.07,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.017,"rev":2.1735,"emuCost":0.8061,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":8.4921875,"2022":16.25390625,"2023":17.25390625,"2024":22.4375,"2025":28.57421875,"2026":25.1328125},"cost":{"train":1.4262,"infra":2.58,"dep":3.2128,"int":3.1934},"sup":{"qJul":25.1328125,"qJan":21.9453125,"qYear":23.028,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 25.1 对、2026-01-31周六 21.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 23.0 对/日。","longRate":0.35244016164128067,"carsAvg":10.82,"seatsAvg":811.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率35%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6475598383587193},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.35244016164128067}],"trainKm":2168588,"carKm":23463084,"seatKm":1759731270},"dem":{"load":0.4116,"loadLo":0.3044,"loadHi":0.5565,"prior":0.4116,"pkm":724283600,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计41%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45000000000000007,"ratio":0.6668800123704934,"real":0.3001,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.667（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.50 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约5年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 23.03 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 129 公里 = 217 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.82 节/列 = 2,346 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 811 座/列 = 17.60 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 41.2% = 7.24 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.667 = 2.17 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.8 元 = 1.43 亿元\n线路维护 = 129 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.58 亿元\n折旧 = 129 公里 × 1.50 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.21 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通5年）× 3.3% = 3.19 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.17 − 1.43 − 2.58 − 3.21 − 3.19 = -8.24 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R165","name":"渝昆高铁渝宜段","km":192,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"西南","via":"重庆,永川,泸州,宜宾","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.6953,"lo":-20.1573,"hi":-12.4932,"opProfit":-2.7942,"opLo":-5.422,"opHi":-0.5361,"perKm":-817.46,"opPerKm":-145.53,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.058,"rev":5.6761,"emuCost":1.4548,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":29.615942028985508,"2026":28.630434782608695},"cost":{"train":2.7103,"infra":5.76,"dep":6.47,"int":6.431},"sup":{"qJul":28.630434782608695,"qJan":25.130434782608695,"qYear":26.299,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 28.6 对、2026-01-31周六 25.1 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 26.3 对/日。","longRate":0.24028701594533028,"carsAvg":9.994,"seatsAvg":705.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率24%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.7597129840546697},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.24028701594533028}],"trainKm":3686079,"carKm":36840078,"seatKm":2599346573},"dem":{"load":0.4761,"loadLo":0.3893,"loadHi":0.5824,"prior":0.4761,"pkm":1237594465,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6499999999999999,"ratio":0.7055937467975221,"real":0.4586,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.706（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.03 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 26.30 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 192 公里 = 369 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.99 节/列 = 3,684 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 705 座/列 = 25.99 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 47.6% = 12.38 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.706 = 5.68 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.1 元 = 2.71 亿元\n线路维护 = 192 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.76 亿元\n折旧 = 192 公里 × 2.03 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 6.47 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 6.43 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 5.68 − 2.71 − 5.76 − 6.47 − 6.43 = -15.70 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R166","name":"巴南高铁","km":148,"speed":250,"opened":"2024","region":"西南","via":"南充,仪陇,巴中","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-9.9117,"lo":-12.2619,"hi":-8.2799,"opProfit":-2.8084,"opLo":-3.9951,"opHi":-1.8307,"perKm":-669.71,"opPerKm":-189.76,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":1.2063,"emuCost":0.6052,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":9.0,"2025":13.11744966442953,"2026":13.61744966442953},"cost":{"train":1.0547,"infra":2.96,"dep":3.5624,"int":3.5409},"sup":{"qJul":13.61744966442953,"qJan":12.61744966442953,"qYear":12.843,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 13.6 对、2026-01-31周六 12.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 12.8 对/日。","longRate":0.5870689995071464,"carsAvg":12.697,"seatsAvg":952.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率59%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4129310004928536},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5870689995071464}],"trainKm":1387515,"carKm":17616651,"seatKm":1321248822},"dem":{"load":0.3287,"loadLo":0.233,"loadHi":0.4638,"prior":0.3287,"pkm":434346186,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计33%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44999999999999996,"ratio":0.6171763267489478,"real":0.2777,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.617（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.45 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 12.84 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 148 公里 = 139 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.70 节/列 = 1,762 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 952 座/列 = 13.21 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 32.9% = 4.34 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.617 = 1.21 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.3 元 = 1.05 亿元\n线路维护 = 148 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.96 亿元\n折旧 = 148 公里 × 1.45 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.56 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 3.54 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.21 − 1.05 − 2.96 − 3.56 − 3.54 = -9.91 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R167","name":"川青铁路青白江黄胜关段","km":276,"speed":200,"opened":"2023–2024","region":"西南","via":"青白江,什邡,绵竹,茂县,镇江关,松潘,黄胜关","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-15.661,"lo":-19.9693,"hi":-12.4136,"opProfit":-3.7848,"opLo":-6.4444,"opHi":-1.362,"perKm":-567.43,"opPerKm":-137.13,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.024,"rev":4.523,"emuCost":1.683,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":6.3127272727272725,"2025":19.507272727272728,"2026":23.578181818181818},"cost":{"train":2.7878,"infra":5.52,"dep":5.9561,"int":5.9202},"sup":{"qJul":23.578181818181818,"qJan":17.30909090909091,"qYear":19.956,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 23.6 对、2026-01-31周六 17.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.0 对/日。","longRate":0.5228727637260949,"carsAvg":12.183,"seatsAvg":913.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率52%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4771272362739051},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5228727637260949}],"trainKm":4020815,"carKm":48985523,"seatKm":3673914222},"dem":{"load":0.38,"loadLo":0.2765,"loadHi":0.5222,"prior":0.38,"pkm":1396130688,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6479365720002936,"real":0.324,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.648（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 19.96 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 276 公里 = 402 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.18 节/列 = 4,899 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 914 座/列 = 36.74 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.0% = 13.96 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.648 = 4.52 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 2.79 亿元\n线路维护 = 276 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 5.52 亿元\n折旧 = 276 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.96 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 5.92 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.52 − 2.79 − 5.52 − 5.96 − 5.92 = -15.66 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R168","name":"成灌铁路","km":65,"speed":200,"opened":"2010","region":"西南","via":"成都,郫县,都江堰","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.7499,"lo":-7.0226,"hi":-4.9182,"opProfit":-1.7051,"opLo":-2.238,"opHi":-1.3056,"perKm":-884.6,"opPerKm":-262.32,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.3415,"emuCost":0.3523,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":26.32,"2018":29.68,"2019":48.88,"2020":46.32,"2021":53.44,"2022":53.44,"2023":48.4,"2024":56.24,"2025":56.92,"2026":67.24},"cost":{"train":0.7466,"infra":1.3,"dep":2.0285,"int":2.0163},"sup":{"qJul":67.24,"qJan":57.56,"qYear":61.031,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 67.2 对、2026-01-31周六 57.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 61.0 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4.108,"seatsAvg":246.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：约97%为CRH6A-A 4节（240座）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.973,"label":"CRH6A-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":464,"share":0.027,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":2895921,"carKm":11896443,"seatKm":712535558},"dem":{"load":0.3826,"loadLo":0.2576,"loadHi":0.5682,"prior":0.3826,"pkm":272586456,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计38%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.25,"ratio":0.5011943700099506,"real":0.1253,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.25 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.501（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.88 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 61.03 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 65 公里 = 290 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.11 节/列 = 1,190 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 246 座/列 = 7.13 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 38.3% = 2.73 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.250 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.501 = 0.34 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 10.1 元 = 0.75 亿元\n线路维护 = 65 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.30 亿元\n折旧 = 65 公里 × 1.88 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.03 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 2.02 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.34 − 0.75 − 1.30 − 2.03 − 2.02 = -5.75 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"国铁／铁科院：成灌铁路15周年","url":"https://www.rails.cn/content.php?contentid=66567&page=50","note":"2025年5月76对，网络含支线影响；15年累计1.13亿不是当前年客流。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R169","name":"彭州支线","km":20,"speed":200,"opened":"2014","region":"西南","via":"郫县,彭州","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-1.4175,"lo":-1.7335,"hi":-1.2048,"opProfit":-0.4377,"opLo":-0.591,"opHi":-0.327,"perKm":-708.74,"opPerKm":-218.86,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0167,"emuCost":0.0254,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":6.0,"2018":6.0,"2019":11.0,"2020":15.0,"2021":25.0,"2022":25.0,"2023":20.0,"2024":20.0,"2025":20.0,"2026":15.0},"cost":{"train":0.0544,"infra":0.4,"dep":0.4914,"int":0.4884},"sup":{"qJul":15.0,"qJan":15.0,"qYear":14.7,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 15.0 对、2026-01-31周六 15.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 14.7 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4,"seatsAvg":240.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：全部CRH6A-A 4节。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":1,"label":"CRH6A-A"}],"trainKm":214620,"carKm":858480,"seatKm":51508800},"dem":{"load":0.2849,"loadLo":0.1802,"loadHi":0.4505,"prior":0.2849,"pkm":14675524,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计28%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.25,"ratio":0.45598724968119375,"real":0.114,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.25 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.456（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.48 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 14.70 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 20 公里 = 21 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.00 节/列 = 86 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 240 座/列 = 0.52 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 28.5% = 0.15 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.250 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.456 = 0.02 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 10.1 元 = 0.05 亿元\n线路维护 = 20 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.40 亿元\n折旧 = 20 公里 × 1.48 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.49 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 0.49 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.02 − 0.05 − 0.40 − 0.49 − 0.49 = -1.42 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R170","name":"成蒲铁路","km":98,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"西南","via":"成都,崇州,邛崃,朝阳湖","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.922,"lo":-8.4666,"hi":-5.8662,"opProfit":-2.3806,"opLo":-3.2302,"opHi":-1.7229,"perKm":-706.32,"opPerKm":-242.92,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.8169,"emuCost":0.5614,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":25.0,"2020":27.0,"2021":43.0,"2022":47.0,"2023":47.0,"2024":56.0,"2025":57.0,"2026":56.0},"cost":{"train":1.2375,"infra":1.96,"dep":2.2775,"int":2.2638},"sup":{"qJul":56.0,"qJan":53.0,"qYear":53.372,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 56.0 对、2026-01-31周六 53.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 53.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4.964,"seatsAvg":312.3,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：76%为4节CRH6A-A。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.759,"label":"CRH6A-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":540,"share":0.241,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":3818269,"carKm":18953886,"seatKm":1192445299},"dem":{"load":0.3728,"loadLo":0.2494,"loadHi":0.5572,"prior":0.3728,"pkm":444524799,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计37%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.4966692045057107,"real":0.1838,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.497（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.40 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 53.37 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 98 公里 = 382 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.96 节/列 = 1,895 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 312 座/列 = 11.92 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 37.3% = 4.45 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.497 = 0.82 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 1.24 亿元\n线路维护 = 98 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.96 亿元\n折旧 = 98 公里 × 1.40 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.28 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 2.26 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.82 − 1.24 − 1.96 − 2.28 − 2.26 = -6.92 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R171","name":"成雅铁路朝雅段","km":42,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"西南","via":"朝阳湖,雅安","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-2.9464,"lo":-3.6093,"hi":-2.5182,"opProfit":-1.0001,"opLo":-1.3472,"opHi":-0.7377,"perKm":-701.52,"opPerKm":-238.12,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2361,"emuCost":0.1757,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":14.0,"2020":18.0,"2021":30.0,"2022":34.0,"2023":35.0,"2024":44.0,"2025":44.0,"2026":43.0},"cost":{"train":0.3962,"infra":0.84,"dep":0.9761,"int":0.9702},"sup":{"qJul":43.0,"qJan":41.0,"qYear":41.135,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 43.0 对、2026-01-31周六 41.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 41.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4.704,"seatsAvg":292.8,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：82%为4节CRH6A-A。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.824,"label":"CRH6A-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":540,"share":0.176,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":1261199,"carKm":5932681,"seatKm":369279096},"dem":{"load":0.3541,"loadLo":0.2341,"loadHi":0.5356,"prior":0.3541,"pkm":130761616,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.48801878759120054,"real":0.1806,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.488（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.40 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 41.13 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 42 公里 = 126 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.70 节/列 = 593 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 293 座/列 = 3.69 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.4% = 1.31 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.488 = 0.24 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 42 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.84 亿元\n折旧 = 42 公里 × 1.40 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.98 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 0.97 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.24 − 0.40 − 0.84 − 0.98 − 0.97 = -2.95 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R172","name":"沪昆高铁杭长段","km":933,"speed":350,"opened":"2014","region":"华东-华中","via":"杭州,金华,衢州,上饶,鹰潭,南昌,新余,宜春,萍乡,长沙","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":61.3516,"lo":15.2167,"hi":107.2279,"opProfit":90.5265,"opLo":44.5523,"opHi":136.0517,"perKm":657.57,"opPerKm":970.27,"pProb":0.939,"pProbOp":0.994,"rev":187.4421,"emuCost":38.0227,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":76.13095238095238,"2018":80.77813852813853,"2019":85.69751082251082,"2020":75.92911255411255,"2021":90.14989177489177,"2022":85.97294372294373,"2023":91.72240259740259,"2024":94.16829004329004,"2025":102.71699134199135,"2026":102.93560606060606},"cost":{"train":68.9255,"infra":27.99,"dep":18.2756,"int":10.8993},"sup":{"qJul":102.93560606060606,"qJan":100.39285714285714,"qYear":99.599,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 102.9 对、2026-01-31周六 100.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 99.6 对/日。","longRate":0.7462277828886844,"carsAvg":14.194,"seatsAvg":1021.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率75%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.2537722171113156},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.7462277828886844}],"trainKm":67835994,"carKm":962843105,"seatKm":69287165950},"dem":{"load":0.6208,"loadLo":0.5365,"loadHi":0.7182,"prior":0.6208,"pkm":43010696227,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计62%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5500000000000002,"ratio":0.7923697460650057,"real":0.4358,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.792（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.18 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 30% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 99.60 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 933 公里 = 6,784 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 14.19 节/列 = 96,284 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1021 座/列 = 692.87 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 62.1% = 430.11 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.792 = 187.44 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 18.6 元 = 68.93 亿元\n线路维护 = 933 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 27.99 亿元\n折旧 = 933 公里 × 1.18 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 18.28 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 30%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 10.90 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 187.44 − 68.93 − 27.99 − 18.28 − 10.90 = +61.35 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R173","name":"沪昆高铁长贵段","km":706,"speed":350,"opened":"2014–2015","region":"华中-西南","via":"长沙,湘潭,娄底,怀化,新晃,凯里,贵阳","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":10.0022,"lo":-21.5427,"hi":33.3397,"opProfit":35.8206,"opLo":12.3303,"opHi":59.2114,"perKm":141.67,"opPerKm":507.37,"pProb":0.578,"pProbOp":0.977,"rev":93.3389,"emuCost":19.8261,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":51.94900849858357,"2018":51.172096317280456,"2019":58.594900849858355,"2020":54.06232294617564,"2021":69.94121813031161,"2022":62.49504249291785,"2023":66.96246458923513,"2024":72.6798866855524,"2025":83.53328611898017,"2026":83.70396600566572},"cost":{"train":36.3383,"infra":21.18,"dep":16.173,"int":9.6454},"sup":{"qJul":83.70396600566572,"qJan":80.01416430594901,"qYear":80.176,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 83.7 对、2026-01-31周六 80.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 80.2 对/日。","longRate":0.5000119130214062,"carsAvg":12.15,"seatsAvg":867.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率50%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.49998808697859376},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.5000119130214062}],"trainKm":41320984,"carKm":502054040,"seatKm":35846261173},"dem":{"load":0.6048,"loadLo":0.5195,"loadHi":0.704,"prior":0.6048,"pkm":21679700990,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7827928593553819,"real":0.4305,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.783（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.38 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 30% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 80.18 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 706 公里 = 4,132 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.15 节/列 = 50,205 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 868 座/列 = 358.46 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.5% = 216.80 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.783 = 93.34 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.9 元 = 36.34 亿元\n线路维护 = 706 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 21.18 亿元\n折旧 = 706 公里 × 1.38 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 16.17 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 30%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 9.65 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 93.34 − 36.34 − 21.18 − 16.17 − 9.65 = +10.00 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R174","name":"沪昆高铁贵昆段","km":463,"speed":350,"opened":"2016","region":"西南","via":"贵阳,安顺,普安,盘州,曲靖,昆明","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.8566,"lo":-18.7106,"hi":14.1125,"opProfit":18.2923,"opLo":4.0079,"opHi":32.0096,"perKm":-61.7,"opPerKm":395.08,"pProb":0.398,"pProbOp":0.952,"rev":53.5159,"emuCost":11.7092,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":37.54211663066955,"2018":30.978401727861772,"2019":46.65442764578834,"2020":40.72354211663067,"2021":56.83585313174946,"2022":50.83585313174946,"2023":55.159827213822894,"2024":60.48920086393088,"2025":64.14362850971922,"2026":70.65658747300216},"cost":{"train":21.3335,"infra":13.89,"dep":10.6064,"int":10.5425},"sup":{"qJul":70.65658747300216,"qJan":65.329373650108,"qYear":66.567,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 70.7 对、2026-01-31周六 65.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 66.6 对/日。","longRate":0.6239621568747324,"carsAvg":13.179,"seatsAvg":945.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率62%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.37603784312526756},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6239621568747324}],"trainKm":22498822,"carKm":296509405,"seatKm":21260854401},"dem":{"load":0.5909,"loadLo":0.5049,"loadHi":0.6916,"prior":0.5909,"pkm":12563604073,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计59%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7744716865837409,"real":0.426,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.774（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.38 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 66.57 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 463 公里 = 2,250 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.18 节/列 = 29,651 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 945 座/列 = 212.61 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 59.1% = 125.64 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.774 = 53.52 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 17.7 元 = 21.33 亿元\n线路维护 = 463 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 13.89 亿元\n折旧 = 463 公里 × 1.38 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 10.61 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 10.54 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 53.52 − 21.33 − 13.89 − 10.61 − 10.54 = -2.86 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R175","name":"贵广高铁","km":857,"speed":300,"opened":"2014","region":"西南-华南","via":"贵阳,都匀,三江,桂林,贺州,肇庆,广州南","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":20.5062,"lo":-18.2465,"hi":48.4237,"opProfit":45.942,"opLo":15.3246,"opHi":74.5852,"perKm":239.28,"opPerKm":536.08,"pProb":0.716,"pProbOp":0.981,"rev":115.8608,"emuCost":25.6587,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":40.67520372526193,"2018":48.38824214202561,"2019":56.05587892898719,"2020":51.9592549476135,"2021":65.5454016298021,"2022":60.58090803259604,"2023":62.846915017462166,"2024":69.21478463329453,"2025":73.35098952270081,"2026":78.76833527357392},"cost":{"train":44.2088,"infra":25.71,"dep":15.9333,"int":9.5024},"sup":{"qJul":78.76833527357392,"qJan":75.15599534342259,"qYear":75.378,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 78.8 对、2026-01-31周六 75.2 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 75.4 对/日。 部分区段为源图作者估计值。","longRate":0.6961990925482545,"carsAvg":13.778,"seatsAvg":990.1,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率70%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.3038009074517455},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.6961990925482545}],"trainKm":47157085,"carKm":649751658,"seatKm":46691382321},"dem":{"load":0.6002,"loadLo":0.5147,"loadHi":0.6999,"prior":0.6002,"pkm":28024775400,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计60%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.53,"ratio":0.7800429393019325,"real":0.4134,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.53 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.780（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.12 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 30% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 75.38 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 857 公里 = 4,716 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.78 节/列 = 64,975 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 990 座/列 = 466.91 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 60.0% = 280.25 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.530 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.780 = 115.86 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.48 元 + 列车公里 × 18.2 元 = 44.21 亿元\n线路维护 = 857 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 25.71 亿元\n折旧 = 857 公里 × 1.12 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 15.93 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 30%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 9.50 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 115.86 − 44.21 − 25.71 − 15.93 − 9.50 = +20.51 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"贵广：12306票价公告 2023-08-26","url":"https://kyfw.12306.cn/mormhweb/zxdt/202308/t20230826_39897.html","note":"登记857公里与贵阳东OD/贵阳北起点及共享南端工程边界未对应。250级公告8.3折是初期执行策略，不能推广300级。 公布价与最低价均非年度成交均价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R176","name":"贵南高铁","km":482,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"西南-华南","via":"贵阳,都匀,荔波,环江,河池,马山,南宁","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-26.2344,"lo":-36.3397,"hi":-18.2437,"opProfit":-3.5794,"opLo":-11.6613,"opHi":3.6557,"perKm":-544.28,"opPerKm":-74.26,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.257,"rev":21.2009,"emuCost":5.5965,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":24.50920245398773,"2025":31.514314928425357,"2026":39.25460122699386},"cost":{"train":10.3203,"infra":14.46,"dep":11.3617,"int":11.2933},"sup":{"qJul":39.25460122699386,"qJan":33.964212678936605,"qYear":35.811,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 39.3 对、2026-01-31周六 34.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 35.8 对/日。","longRate":0.39121661326873486,"carsAvg":11.247,"seatsAvg":799.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率39%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.6087833867312651},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.39121661326873486}],"trainKm":12600490,"carKm":141718942,"seatKm":10074222398},"dem":{"load":0.5219,"loadLo":0.4343,"loadHi":0.6273,"prior":0.5219,"pkm":5258183486,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.55,"ratio":0.7330868501132234,"real":0.4032,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.55 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.733（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.42 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 35.81 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 482 公里 = 1,260 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.25 节/列 = 14,172 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 800 座/列 = 100.74 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 52.2% = 52.58 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.550 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.733 = 21.20 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 16.1 元 = 10.32 亿元\n线路维护 = 482 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 14.46 亿元\n折旧 = 482 公里 × 1.42 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 11.36 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 11.29 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 21.20 − 10.32 − 14.46 − 11.36 − 11.29 = -26.23 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"贵南荔波站开行信息","url":"https://gz.news.cn/20250808/d32e1cf62f3740b5b4275ec59431ca84/c.html","note":"73列是车站口径，不是全线客公里。"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R177","name":"渝贵铁路","km":347,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"西南","via":"重庆,桐梓,遵义,贵阳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.1249,"lo":-20.0074,"hi":5.0625,"opProfit":9.3334,"opLo":-1.285,"opHi":20.1985,"perKm":-234.15,"opPerKm":268.97,"pProb":0.179,"pProbOp":0.867,"rev":32.6338,"emuCost":9.9063,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":41.726224783861674,"2019":63.95244956772334,"2020":47.58933717579251,"2021":63.554755043227665,"2022":65.28097982708934,"2023":66.40489913544668,"2024":71.71469740634005,"2025":84.18011527377521,"2026":94.57636887608069},"cost":{"train":16.3604,"infra":6.94,"dep":8.7555,"int":8.7028},"sup":{"qJul":94.57636887608069,"qJan":90.30691642651297,"qYear":90.539,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 94.6 对、2026-01-31周六 90.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 90.5 对/日。","longRate":0.5715325735876653,"carsAvg":12.572,"seatsAvg":942.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4284674264123347},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5715325735876653}],"trainKm":22934546,"carKm":288339088,"seatKm":21625431624},"dem":{"load":0.5168,"loadLo":0.4034,"loadHi":0.6621,"prior":0.5168,"pkm":11175964157,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计52%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.4,"ratio":0.7299989402851282,"real":0.292,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.40 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.730（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.52 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 90.54 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 347 公里 = 2,293 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.57 节/列 = 28,834 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 943 座/列 = 216.25 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.7% = 111.76 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.400 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.730 = 32.63 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 16.36 亿元\n线路维护 = 347 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.94 亿元\n折旧 = 347 公里 × 1.52 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 8.76 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 8.70 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 32.63 − 16.36 − 6.94 − 8.76 − 8.70 = -8.12 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R178","name":"安六高铁","km":125,"speed":250,"opened":"2020","region":"西南","via":"安顺,六盘水","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.7278,"lo":-8.6323,"hi":-5.2778,"opProfit":-1.7214,"opLo":-2.9879,"opHi":-0.6035,"perKm":-538.22,"opPerKm":-137.71,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.03,"rev":2.2899,"emuCost":0.8709,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":10.0,"2021":13.0,"2022":13.0,"2023":12.0,"2024":20.0,"2025":23.0,"2026":21.0},"cost":{"train":1.5113,"infra":2.5,"dep":2.5107,"int":2.4956},"sup":{"qJul":21.0,"qJan":21.5,"qYear":20.831,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 21.0 对、2026-01-31周六 21.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.8 对/日。","longRate":0.667,"carsAvg":13.336,"seatsAvg":1000.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率67%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.33299999999999996},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.667}],"trainKm":1900852,"carKm":25349756,"seatKm":1901231733},"dem":{"load":0.4041,"loadLo":0.2977,"loadHi":0.5485,"prior":0.4041,"pkm":768243484,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.45,"ratio":0.6623739647688591,"real":0.2981,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.45 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.662（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.21 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 20.83 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 125 公里 = 190 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 13.34 节/列 = 2,535 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1000 座/列 = 19.01 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.4% = 7.68 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.450 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.662 = 2.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.9 元 = 1.51 亿元\n线路维护 = 125 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.50 亿元\n折旧 = 125 公里 × 1.21 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.51 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 2.50 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.29 − 1.51 − 2.50 − 2.51 − 2.50 = -6.73 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R179","name":"盘兴高铁","km":99,"speed":250,"opened":"2025","region":"西南","via":"盘州,兴义","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.2971,"lo":-7.8461,"hi":-5.2175,"opProfit":-1.6439,"opLo":-2.481,"opHi":-0.9528,"perKm":-636.07,"opPerKm":-166.05,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.004,"rev":0.9297,"emuCost":0.3407,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":11.0},"cost":{"train":0.5935,"infra":1.98,"dep":2.3336,"int":2.3196},"sup":{"qJul":11.0,"qJan":11.0,"qYear":10.78,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 11.0 对、2026-01-31周六 11.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 10.8 对/日。","longRate":0.591,"carsAvg":12.728,"seatsAvg":954.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率59%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.40900000000000003},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.591}],"trainKm":779071,"carKm":9916011,"seatKm":743700795},"dem":{"load":0.2982,"loadLo":0.2081,"loadHi":0.4273,"prior":0.2982,"pkm":221772529,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计30%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7,"ratio":0.5988556116400874,"real":0.4192,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.70 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.599（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.42 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 99 公里 = 78 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.73 节/列 = 992 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 955 座/列 = 7.44 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 29.8% = 2.22 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.700 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.599 = 0.93 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.4 元 = 0.59 亿元\n线路维护 = 99 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.98 亿元\n折旧 = 99 公里 × 1.42 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.33 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 2.32 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.93 − 0.59 − 1.98 − 2.33 − 2.32 = -6.30 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R180","name":"南昆客专","km":710,"speed":250,"opened":"2015–2016","region":"华南-西南","via":"南宁,田阳,百色,普者黑,昆明","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-39.1715,"lo":-50.8968,"hi":-30.3257,"opProfit":-9.7952,"opLo":-17.9365,"opHi":-2.6819,"perKm":-551.71,"opPerKm":-137.96,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.04,"rev":16.1813,"emuCost":6.6967,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":24.291044776119403,"2018":26.50135685210312,"2019":33.97761194029851,"2020":20.116010854816825,"2021":35.58141112618725,"2022":30.883989145183175,"2023":32.73473541383989,"2024":37.05902306648575,"2025":34.04884667571235,"2026":34.96268656716418},"cost":{"train":11.7765,"infra":14.2,"dep":14.7325,"int":14.6438},"sup":{"qJul":34.96268656716418,"qJan":31.827001356852104,"qYear":32.688,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 35.0 对、2026-01-31周六 31.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 32.7 对/日。","longRate":0.4381318909478995,"carsAvg":11.505,"seatsAvg":862.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率44%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.5618681090521005},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.4381318909478995}],"trainKm":16942061,"carKm":194919350,"seatKm":14618951238},"dem":{"load":0.4381,"loadLo":0.3285,"loadHi":0.5844,"prior":0.4381,"pkm":6404954868,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计44%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37000000000000005,"ratio":0.682801812047168,"real":0.2526,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.683（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.25 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 32.69 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 710 公里 = 1,694 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.51 节/列 = 19,492 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 863 座/列 = 146.19 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 43.8% = 64.05 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.683 = 16.18 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.3 元 = 11.78 亿元\n线路维护 = 710 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 14.20 亿元\n折旧 = 710 公里 × 1.25 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 14.73 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 14.64 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 16.18 − 11.78 − 14.20 − 14.73 − 14.64 = -39.17 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R181","name":"昆广快速铁路","km":175,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"西南","via":"昆明,广通","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.1996,"lo":-10.1482,"hi":-0.3804,"opProfit":2.3306,"opLo":-2.0457,"opHi":6.7959,"perKm":-297.12,"opPerKm":133.18,"pProb":0.085,"pProbOp":0.738,"rev":13.0973,"emuCost":4.3835,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":21.5,"2019":42.5,"2020":42.0,"2021":57.0,"2022":53.0,"2023":64.0,"2024":75.0,"2025":82.0,"2026":92.0},"cost":{"train":7.2667,"infra":3.5,"dep":3.7765,"int":3.7538},"sup":{"qJul":92.0,"qJan":77.0,"qYear":82.623,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 92.0 对、2026-01-31周六 77.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 82.6 对/日。","longRate":0.511,"carsAvg":12.088,"seatsAvg":906.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率51%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.489},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.511}],"trainKm":10555024,"carKm":127589135,"seatKm":9569185098},"dem":{"load":0.5097,"loadLo":0.3964,"loadHi":0.6554,"prior":0.5097,"pkm":4877483428,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计51%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.37,"ratio":0.7257454129284922,"real":0.2685,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.37 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.726（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 82.62 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 175 公里 = 1,056 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.09 节/列 = 12,759 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 907 座/列 = 95.69 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.0% = 48.77 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.370 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.726 = 13.10 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 16.8 元 = 7.27 亿元\n线路维护 = 175 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 3.50 亿元\n折旧 = 175 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.78 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 3.75 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.10 − 7.27 − 3.50 − 3.78 − 3.75 = -5.20 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R182","name":"广大铁路新线","km":106,"speed":200,"opened":"2018","region":"西南","via":"广通,楚雄,大理","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.4921,"lo":-4.8219,"hi":2.1598,"opProfit":3.0691,"opLo":0.1465,"opHi":6.1058,"perKm":-140.76,"opPerKm":289.54,"pProb":0.269,"pProbOp":0.906,"rev":9.0093,"emuCost":2.3074,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":21.5,"2019":42.5,"2020":29.0,"2021":51.0,"2022":48.0,"2023":56.0,"2024":66.0,"2025":70.0,"2026":80.0},"cost":{"train":3.8201,"infra":2.12,"dep":2.2875,"int":2.2737},"sup":{"qJul":80.0,"qJan":65.0,"qYear":70.862,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 80.0 对、2026-01-31周六 65.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 70.9 对/日。","longRate":0.531,"carsAvg":12.248,"seatsAvg":918.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率53%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.469},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.531}],"trainKm":5483340,"carKm":67159951,"seatKm":5036996354},"dem":{"load":0.4978,"loadLo":0.3848,"loadHi":0.644,"prior":0.4978,"pkm":2507432634,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.7186037023655631,"real":0.3593,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.719（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约8年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 70.86 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 106 公里 = 548 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.25 节/列 = 6,716 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 919 座/列 = 50.37 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.8% = 25.07 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.719 = 9.01 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 3.82 亿元\n线路维护 = 106 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.12 亿元\n折旧 = 106 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.29 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通8年）× 3.3% = 2.27 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 9.01 − 3.82 − 2.12 − 2.29 − 2.27 = -1.49 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R183","name":"昆玉铁路新线","km":88,"speed":200,"opened":"2016","region":"西南","via":"昆明,玉溪","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.7688,"lo":-7.0949,"hi":-4.7827,"opProfit":-1.7637,"opLo":-2.4652,"opHi":-1.1573,"perKm":-655.55,"opPerKm":-200.42,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":0.6404,"emuCost":0.376,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.6441,"infra":1.76,"dep":2.0086,"int":1.9965},"sup":{"qJul":19.82002519805391,"qJan":null,"qYear":18.928,"kind":"asm","text":"该线未进入知乎分段表，开行对数沿用前一版相似线路推算。 折算后 18.9 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":9,"seatsAvg":720.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：121列全为CR200J（720座级）。","mix":[{"cars":9,"seats":720,"share":1,"label":"CR200J短编组"}],"trainKm":1215943,"carKm":10943484,"seatKm":875478737},"dem":{"load":0.3969,"loadLo":0.2914,"loadHi":0.5407,"prior":0.3969,"pkm":347514582,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.28,"ratio":0.6580938043555634,"real":0.1843,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.28 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.658（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.38 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 18.93 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 88 公里 = 122 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.00 节/列 = 1,094 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 720 座/列 = 8.75 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 39.7% = 3.48 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.280 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.658 = 0.64 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.2 元 = 0.64 亿元\n线路维护 = 88 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.76 亿元\n折旧 = 88 公里 × 1.38 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.01 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 2.00 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.64 − 0.64 − 1.76 − 2.01 − 2.00 = -5.77 亿元","notes":["开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R184","name":"弥蒙高铁","km":106,"speed":250,"opened":"2022","region":"西南","via":"弥勒,开远,蒙自","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-6.2802,"lo":-7.7978,"hi":-5.215,"opProfit":-1.8243,"opLo":-2.6931,"opHi":-1.1218,"perKm":-592.47,"opPerKm":-172.1,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.002,"rev":0.9665,"emuCost":0.3839,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":11.0,"2024":13.0,"2025":12.0,"2026":13.0},"cost":{"train":0.6708,"infra":2.12,"dep":2.2347,"int":2.2212},"sup":{"qJul":13.0,"qJan":11.0,"qYear":11.735,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 13.0 对、2026-01-31周六 11.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 11.7 对/日。","longRate":0.5379999999999999,"carsAvg":12.304,"seatsAvg":922.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率54%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4620000000000001},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5379999999999999}],"trainKm":908054,"carKm":11172700,"seatKm":837952508},"dem":{"load":0.362,"loadLo":0.2611,"loadHi":0.5021,"prior":0.362,"pkm":303376586,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计36%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6371577262589695,"real":0.3186,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.637（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.27 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 11.73 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 106 公里 = 91 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.30 节/列 = 1,117 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 923 座/列 = 8.38 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.2% = 3.03 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.637 = 0.97 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 17.0 元 = 0.67 亿元\n线路维护 = 106 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.12 亿元\n折旧 = 106 公里 × 1.27 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.23 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 2.22 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.97 − 0.67 − 2.12 − 2.23 − 2.22 = -6.28 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"云南日报：弥蒙高铁一周年","url":"https://m.yunnan.cn/system/2023/12/16/032875402.shtml","note":"首年177.85万人、当时每日9对。历史期服务锚，不外推为现期实开。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R185","name":"柳南客专","km":222.9,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华南","via":"柳州,来宾,南宁","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-5.029,"lo":-10.2653,"hi":0.0417,"opProfit":1.8325,"opLo":-2.9555,"opHi":6.5709,"perKm":-225.62,"opPerKm":82.21,"pProb":0.102,"pProbOp":0.669,"rev":13.2577,"emuCost":3.9442,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":47.47085201793722,"2018":56.2847533632287,"2019":60.36322869955157,"2020":41.94170403587444,"2021":65.36322869955157,"2022":56.44170403587444,"2023":63.17713004484305,"2024":66.67713004484305,"2025":72.83408071748879,"2026":64.59865470852019},"cost":{"train":6.9672,"infra":4.458,"dep":3.4411,"int":3.4204},"sup":{"qJul":64.59865470852019,"qJan":66.33408071748879,"qYear":64.179,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 64.6 对、2026-01-31周六 66.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 64.2 对/日。","longRate":0.37417128874388256,"carsAvg":10.993,"seatsAvg":824.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率37%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6258287112561174},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.37417128874388256}],"trainKm":10442971,"carKm":114803447,"seatKm":8610258491},"dem":{"load":0.4901,"loadLo":0.3774,"loadHi":0.6365,"prior":0.4901,"pkm":4220082923,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.7139959207315146,"real":0.3142,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.714（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.93 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 64.18 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 222.9 公里 = 1,044 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.99 节/列 = 11,480 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 825 座/列 = 86.10 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.0% = 42.20 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.714 = 13.26 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.9 元 = 6.97 亿元\n线路维护 = 222.9 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 4.46 亿元\n折旧 = 222.9 公里 × 0.93 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.44 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 3.42 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.26 − 6.97 − 4.46 − 3.44 − 3.42 = -5.03 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"柳南铁路公司","year":"2024","netProfit":0.028692,"revenue":10.214985,"note":"222.9公里项目范围，微利。","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf"}},{"id":"R186","name":"黎南铁路","km":93.5,"speed":200,"opened":"2013","region":"华南","via":"黎塘,南宁","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-0.6041,"lo":-2.9876,"hi":2.1291,"opProfit":1.5932,"opLo":-0.7265,"opHi":3.8867,"perKm":-64.61,"opPerKm":170.4,"pProb":0.379,"pProbOp":0.8,"rev":6.7392,"emuCost":1.9833,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":64.0,"2018":61.0,"2019":70.0,"2020":61.0,"2021":66.0,"2022":67.5,"2023":71.5,"2024":72.5,"2025":67.5,"2026":68.5},"cost":{"train":3.276,"infra":1.87,"dep":1.102,"int":1.0954},"sup":{"qJul":68.5,"qJan":69.0,"qYear":67.381,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 68.5 对、2026-01-31周六 69.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 67.4 对/日。","longRate":0.569,"carsAvg":12.552,"seatsAvg":941.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率57%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.43100000000000005},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.569}],"trainKm":4599107,"carKm":57727994,"seatKm":4329599536},"dem":{"load":0.4939,"loadLo":0.381,"loadHi":0.6402,"prior":0.4939,"pkm":2138378140,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.7162605352597233,"real":0.3152,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.716（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.71 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 67.38 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 93.5 公里 = 460 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.55 节/列 = 5,773 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 941 座/列 = 43.30 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.4% = 21.38 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.716 = 6.74 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 17.2 元 = 3.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 93.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.87 亿元\n折旧 = 93.5 公里 × 0.71 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.10 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.10 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 6.74 − 3.28 − 1.87 − 1.10 − 1.10 = -0.60 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"黎南铁路项目与并行线路边界","url":"https://stock.finance.sina.com.cn/bond/view/announcement_show.php?att=1&id=509156351","note":"黎南双线93.5公里与柳南客专并行。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"黎南铁路公司","year":"2024","netProfit":1.224478,"revenue":8.083313,"note":"93.5公里，与柳南平行的另一双线，含客货边界。","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf"}},{"id":"R187","name":"南广铁路（黎塘—广州区段）","km":483.5,"speed":200,"opened":"2014","region":"华南","via":"黎塘,贵港,梧州,肇庆,广州南","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":2.6058,"lo":-13.5409,"hi":15.372,"opProfit":11.7029,"opLo":-1.4323,"opHi":24.4576,"perKm":53.9,"opPerKm":242.05,"pProb":0.504,"pProbOp":0.87,"rev":40.459,"emuCost":11.5142,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":67.54375,"2018":63.04375,"2019":71.84583333333333,"2020":63.59166666666667,"2021":72.06145833333333,"2022":72.33020833333333,"2023":78.40104166666667,"2024":78.11354166666666,"2025":76.696875,"2026":81.9375},"cost":{"train":19.0861,"infra":9.67,"dep":5.6985,"int":3.3985},"sup":{"qJul":81.9375,"qJan":78.3375,"qYear":78.49,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 81.9 对、2026-01-31周六 78.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 78.5 对/日。 部分区段为源图作者估计值。","longRate":0.5121912280701755,"carsAvg":12.098,"seatsAvg":907.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率51%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.4878087719298245},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.5121912280701755}],"trainKm":27703350,"carKm":335142099,"seatKm":25135657453},"dem":{"load":0.5057,"loadLo":0.3925,"loadHi":0.6516,"prior":0.5057,"pkm":12711841683,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计51%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44000000000000006,"ratio":0.7233589542829775,"real":0.3183,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.723（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.71 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约12年，按有息负债 30% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 78.49 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 483.5 公里 = 2,770 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 12.10 节/列 = 33,514 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 907 座/列 = 251.36 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.6% = 127.12 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.723 = 40.46 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 16.8 元 = 19.09 亿元\n线路维护 = 483.5 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 9.67 亿元\n折旧 = 483.5 公里 × 0.71 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.70 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 30%（开通12年）× 3.3% = 3.40 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 40.46 − 19.09 − 9.67 − 5.70 − 3.40 = +2.61 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"南广/黎南：12306票价公告 2023-04-15","url":"https://www.12306.cn/mormhweb/zxdt/202304/t20230415_39217.html","note":"南宁—广州南票价同时含黎南和南广及枢纽，不能全部除以登记黎广近似483.5公里。2021公告5.5折已被较新2023公告6.6折替代，不混用。 公布价与最低价均非年度成交均价。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"南广铁路公司","year":"2024","netProfit":3.09998,"revenue":29.591183,"note":"主要黎广资产，483.5公里近似仍有枢纽边界差异。","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf"}},{"id":"R188","name":"南玉高铁","km":193,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华南","via":"南宁,横州,玉林","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-14.11,"lo":-17.6387,"hi":-11.6419,"opProfit":-4.6553,"opLo":-6.9538,"opHi":-2.8903,"perKm":-731.09,"opPerKm":-241.21,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":2.6554,"emuCost":0.8435,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":11.0,"2026":10.0},"cost":{"train":1.5207,"infra":5.79,"dep":4.7416,"int":4.7131},"sup":{"qJul":10.0,"qJan":10.0,"qYear":9.8,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 10.0 对、2026-01-31周六 10.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 9.8 对/日。","longRate":0.9,"carsAvg":15.47,"seatsAvg":1117.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率90%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.09999999999999998},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.9}],"trainKm":1380722,"carKm":21359769,"seatKm":1542956835},"dem":{"load":0.4009,"loadLo":0.3184,"loadHi":0.5047,"prior":0.4009,"pkm":618550336,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.6604599514771268,"real":0.4293,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.660（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.48 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 9.80 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 193 公里 = 138 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 15.47 节/列 = 2,136 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 1118 座/列 = 15.43 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.1% = 6.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.660 = 2.66 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 19.7 元 = 1.52 亿元\n线路维护 = 193 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 5.79 亿元\n折旧 = 193 公里 × 1.48 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.74 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 4.71 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.66 − 1.52 − 5.79 − 4.74 − 4.71 = -14.11 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R189","name":"南钦铁路","km":99,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华南","via":"南宁,钦州","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.9284,"lo":-4.9008,"hi":-1.1668,"opProfit":0.2829,"opLo":-1.4674,"opHi":2.0209,"perKm":-295.8,"opPerKm":28.58,"pProb":0.025,"pProbOp":0.553,"rev":4.9322,"emuCost":1.5051,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":38.0,"2018":41.0,"2019":47.5,"2020":34.0,"2021":56.0,"2022":48.0,"2023":46.0,"2024":54.0,"2025":65.0,"2026":59.0},"cost":{"train":2.6693,"infra":1.98,"dep":1.6105,"int":1.6008},"sup":{"qJul":59.0,"qJan":58.0,"qYear":57.317,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 59.0 对、2026-01-31周六 58.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 57.3 对/日。","longRate":0.322,"carsAvg":10.576,"seatsAvg":793.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率32%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.6779999999999999},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.322}],"trainKm":4142336,"carKm":43809343,"seatKm":3285700697},"dem":{"load":0.4814,"loadLo":0.369,"loadHi":0.628,"prior":0.4814,"pkm":1581614801,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44,"ratio":0.708740697927979,"real":0.3118,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.709（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.98 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 57.32 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 99 公里 = 414 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.58 节/列 = 4,381 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 793 座/列 = 32.86 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 48.1% = 15.82 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.709 = 4.93 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.6 元 = 2.67 亿元\n线路维护 = 99 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.98 亿元\n折旧 = 99 公里 × 0.98 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.61 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.60 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.93 − 2.67 − 1.98 − 1.61 − 1.60 = -2.93 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R190","name":"钦北高铁","km":100,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华南","via":"钦州,北海","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.202,"lo":-4.9843,"hi":-1.6938,"opProfit":-0.2892,"opLo":-1.8065,"opHi":1.1621,"perKm":-320.2,"opPerKm":-28.92,"pProb":0.009,"pProbOp":0.397,"rev":3.9553,"emuCost":1.2722,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":31.0,"2018":32.0,"2019":37.5,"2020":28.0,"2021":48.0,"2022":43.0,"2023":39.0,"2024":46.0,"2025":52.0,"2026":46.0},"cost":{"train":2.2445,"infra":2.0,"dep":1.4608,"int":1.452},"sup":{"qJul":46.0,"qJan":47.0,"qYear":45.582,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 46.0 对、2026-01-31周六 47.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.6 对/日。","longRate":0.391,"carsAvg":11.128,"seatsAvg":834.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率39%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.609},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.391}],"trainKm":3327522,"carKm":37028670,"seatKm":2777150278},"dem":{"load":0.4637,"loadLo":0.3522,"loadHi":0.6104,"prior":0.4637,"pkm":1287641855,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计46%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44000000000000006,"ratio":0.6981175279900409,"real":0.3072,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.698（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.88 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.58 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 100 公里 = 333 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 11.13 节/列 = 3,703 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 835 座/列 = 27.77 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 46.4% = 12.88 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.698 = 3.96 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 16.0 元 = 2.24 亿元\n线路维护 = 100 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.00 亿元\n折旧 = 100 公里 × 0.88 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.46 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.45 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.96 − 2.24 − 2.00 − 1.46 − 1.45 = -3.20 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R191","name":"钦防铁路","km":63,"speed":250,"opened":"2013","region":"华南","via":"钦州,防城港","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.3418,"lo":-4.1045,"hi":-2.822,"opProfit":-1.2982,"opLo":-1.7873,"opHi":-0.9276,"perKm":-530.44,"opPerKm":-206.06,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2767,"emuCost":0.1734,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":6.0,"2018":9.0,"2019":10.0,"2020":6.0,"2021":14.0,"2022":11.0,"2023":9.0,"2024":10.0,"2025":15.0,"2026":13.0},"cost":{"train":0.3149,"infra":1.26,"dep":1.0249,"int":1.0187},"sup":{"qJul":13.0,"qJan":13.0,"qYear":12.74,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 13.0 对、2026-01-31周六 13.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 12.7 对/日。","longRate":0.077,"carsAvg":8.616,"seatsAvg":646.2,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率8%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.923},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.077}],"trainKm":585913,"carKm":5048223,"seatKm":378616722},"dem":{"load":0.368,"loadLo":0.2661,"loadHi":0.5088,"prior":0.368,"pkm":139312756,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计37%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.6407014523791373,"real":0.1986,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.641（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.98 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 12.74 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 63 公里 = 59 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.62 节/列 = 505 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 646 座/列 = 3.79 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.8% = 1.39 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.641 = 0.28 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.9 元 = 0.31 亿元\n线路维护 = 63 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.26 亿元\n折旧 = 63 公里 × 0.98 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.02 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 1.02 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.28 − 0.31 − 1.26 − 1.02 − 1.02 = -3.34 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R192","name":"防东铁路","km":46.9,"speed":200,"opened":"2023","region":"华南","via":"防城港,东兴","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.023,"lo":-3.7206,"hi":-2.5594,"opProfit":-0.9118,"opLo":-1.2698,"opHi":-0.6433,"perKm":-644.57,"opPerKm":-194.41,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1593,"emuCost":0.0777,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":5.0,"2025":9.0,"2026":8.0},"cost":{"train":0.1331,"infra":0.938,"dep":1.0588,"int":1.0524},"sup":{"qJul":8.0,"qJan":7.0,"qYear":7.337,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 8.0 对、2026-01-31周六 7.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 7.3 对/日。","longRate":0.125,"carsAvg":9.0,"seatsAvg":675.0,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率12%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.875},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.125}],"trainKm":251214,"carKm":2260926,"seatKm":169569442},"dem":{"load":0.3101,"loadLo":0.2177,"loadHi":0.4416,"prior":0.3101,"pkm":52577199,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计31%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.6059718295071493,"real":0.303,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.606（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.36 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 7.34 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 46.9 公里 = 25 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.00 节/列 = 226 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 675 座/列 = 1.70 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 31.0% = 0.53 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.606 = 0.16 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.2 元 = 0.13 亿元\n线路维护 = 46.9 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.94 亿元\n折旧 = 46.9 公里 × 1.36 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.06 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 1.05 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.16 − 0.13 − 0.94 − 1.06 − 1.05 = -3.02 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广西铁路投资集团2025年募集说明书","url":"https://qxb-pdf-osscache.qixin.com/AnBaseinfo/28bb5a35b4d58d8fc26afe1ac6aa4d10.pdf","note":"封面2025年5月；PDF第56–57页2024公司财务。"},{"title":"人民网广西：防东铁路运营一周年","url":"https://gx.people.com.cn/n2/2024/1229/c179430-41091429.html","note":"首年93.48万人；初期6列、高峰14列，列数非对数。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R193","name":"贵开铁路","km":62,"speed":160,"opened":"2015","region":"西南","via":"贵阳,开阳","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-2.8653,"lo":-3.5193,"hi":-2.4279,"opProfit":-1.3262,"opLo":-1.8048,"opHi":-0.9875,"perKm":-462.15,"opPerKm":-213.9,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0331,"emuCost":0.0578,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":4.0,"2018":4.0,"2019":4.0,"2020":4.0,"2021":5.0,"2022":4.0,"2023":8.0,"2024":7.0,"2025":11.0,"2026":11.0},"cost":{"train":0.1192,"infra":1.24,"dep":0.7719,"int":0.7672},"sup":{"qJul":11.0,"qJan":11.0,"qYear":10.78,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 11.0 对、2026-01-31周六 11.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 10.8 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4,"seatsAvg":184.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：经开阳32列全为CRH3A-A（184座，定员672人）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":184,"share":1,"label":"CRH3A-A贵阳版"}],"trainKm":487903,"carKm":1951611,"seatKm":89774115},"dem":{"load":0.2657,"loadLo":0.166,"loadHi":0.4254,"prior":0.2657,"pkm":23855310,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计27%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.31,"ratio":0.4471041929162179,"real":0.1386,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.31 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.447（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.75 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 10.78 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 62 公里 = 49 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.00 节/列 = 195 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 184 座/列 = 0.90 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 26.6% = 0.24 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.310 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.447 = 0.03 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 10.1 元 = 0.12 亿元\n线路维护 = 62 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.24 亿元\n折旧 = 62 公里 × 0.75 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.77 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 0.77 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.03 − 0.12 − 1.24 − 0.77 − 0.77 = -2.87 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R194","name":"贵阳南环新建区段","km":81,"speed":200,"opened":"2022","region":"西南","via":"贵阳,花溪,龙里","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-7.1162,"lo":-8.744,"hi":-6.0408,"opProfit":-1.754,"opLo":-2.3658,"opHi":-1.3023,"perKm":-878.54,"opPerKm":-216.54,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1434,"emuCost":0.1276,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":24.5,"2023":19.96153846153846,"2024":17.51923076923077,"2025":16.371794871794872,"2026":14.333333333333334},"cost":{"train":0.2773,"infra":1.62,"dep":2.6892,"int":2.673},"sup":{"qJul":14.333333333333334,"qJan":14.602564102564102,"qYear":14.182,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 14.3 对、2026-01-31周六 14.6 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 14.2 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.136,"seatsAvg":302.1,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：102列中73列为CRH3A-A。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":184,"share":0.716,"label":"CRH3A-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.284,"label":"8节跨线"}],"trainKm":838579,"carKm":4306942,"seatKm":253371615},"dem":{"load":0.2827,"loadLo":0.1785,"loadHi":0.4476,"prior":0.2827,"pkm":71615815,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计28%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.44000000000000006,"ratio":0.45494016813075744,"real":0.2002,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.44 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.455（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.00 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 14.18 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 81 公里 = 84 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.14 节/列 = 431 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 302 座/列 = 2.53 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 28.3% = 0.72 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.440 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.455 = 0.14 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.28 亿元\n线路维护 = 81 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.62 亿元\n折旧 = 81 公里 × 2.00 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.69 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 2.67 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.14 − 0.28 − 1.62 − 2.69 − 2.67 = -7.12 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"甘肃日报：兰武高铁首年运营","url":"https://gansu.gansudaily.com.cn/system/2025/07/01/031208228.shtml","note":"首年运送558万余人次；日常14对、周末节假日17对。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R195","name":"海南东环高铁","km":308,"speed":250,"opened":"2010","region":"华南","via":"海口,文昌,琼海,万宁,陵水,三亚","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.1315,"lo":-12.4642,"hi":-4.71,"opProfit":-1.403,"opLo":-5.3171,"opHi":1.9337,"perKm":-264.01,"opPerKm":-45.55,"pProb":0.004,"pProbOp":0.294,"rev":10.5696,"emuCost":3.1714,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":33.5,"2018":35.0,"2019":37.285714285714285,"2020":44.256493506493506,"2021":46.44805194805195,"2022":47.993506493506494,"2023":38.62987012987013,"2024":46.35064935064935,"2025":44.16233766233766,"2026":52.90909090909091},"cost":{"train":5.8126,"infra":6.16,"dep":3.3744,"int":3.3541},"sup":{"qJul":52.90909090909091,"qJan":51.85064935064935,"qYear":51.319,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 52.9 对、2026-01-31周六 51.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 51.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8,"seatsAvg":596.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：230列，8节CRH1A-A（596座）、CR300AF等。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":596,"share":1,"label":"CRH1A-A/CR300AF"}],"trainKm":11538573,"carKm":92308588,"seatKm":6876989776},"dem":{"load":0.5058,"loadLo":0.4121,"loadHi":0.6209,"prior":0.4728,"pkm":3478678338,"kind":"der","text":"海南环岛高铁2024年日均发送8.9万人次（年化约3257万）；按东环约72%分摊，平均乘距约150公里，alpha取0.5。分摊比例为假设。 换算本线口径约57%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线47%按精度合并（本线证据权重35%）。","evidence":[{"text":"海南环岛高铁客流报道","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.42,"ratio":0.7234271942567212,"real":0.3038,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.42 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.723（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.66 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约16年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 51.32 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 308 公里 = 1,154 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 9,231 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 596 座/列 = 68.77 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 50.6% = 34.79 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.420 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.723 = 10.57 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 5.81 亿元\n线路维护 = 308 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.16 亿元\n折旧 = 308 公里 × 0.66 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.37 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通16年）× 3.3% = 3.35 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.57 − 5.81 − 6.16 − 3.37 − 3.35 = -8.13 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"海南环岛开行信息","url":"https://www.hi.chinanews.com.cn/hnnew/2025-04-04/720477.html","note":"图定59对为全环口径，不在每段重复。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R196","name":"海南西环高铁","km":345,"speed":200,"opened":"2015","region":"华南","via":"海口,临高,儋州,东方,乐东,三亚","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-15.1214,"lo":-19.1456,"hi":-12.2277,"opProfit":-6.1,"opLo":-8.9846,"opHi":-3.7313,"perKm":-438.3,"opPerKm":-176.81,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":3.6012,"emuCost":1.4655,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":14.5,"2018":12.0,"2019":17.0,"2020":18.5,"2021":20.5,"2022":19.659420289855074,"2023":17.5,"2024":26.72463768115942,"2025":24.768115942028984,"2026":29.4768115942029},"cost":{"train":2.8013,"infra":6.9,"dep":4.5243,"int":4.4971},"sup":{"qJul":29.4768115942029,"qJan":28.92463768115942,"qYear":28.61,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 29.5 对、2026-01-31周六 28.9 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 28.6 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.92,"seatsAvg":410.9,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：180列，4节约52%。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.52,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":596,"share":0.48,"label":"8节"}],"trainKm":7205380,"carKm":42655850,"seatKm":2960546591},"dem":{"load":0.428,"loadLo":0.3192,"loadHi":0.5738,"prior":0.428,"pkm":1267055668,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计43%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.42,"ratio":0.6767145622326394,"real":0.2842,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.42 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.677（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.79 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 28.61 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 345 公里 = 721 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.92 节/列 = 4,266 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 411 座/列 = 29.61 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 42.8% = 12.67 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.420 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.677 = 3.60 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 2.80 亿元\n线路维护 = 345 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 6.90 亿元\n折旧 = 345 公里 × 0.79 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.52 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 4.50 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 3.60 − 2.80 − 6.90 − 4.52 − 4.50 = -15.12 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"海南环岛开行信息","url":"https://www.hi.chinanews.com.cn/hnnew/2025-04-04/720477.html","note":"图定59对为全环口径，不在每段重复。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R197","name":"江湛铁路运营走廊","km":355,"speed":200,"opened":"2013–2018","region":"华南","via":"江门,台山,阳江,茂名,湛江","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-11.3636,"lo":-17.1886,"hi":-6.3859,"opProfit":-0.1523,"opLo":-5.0401,"opHi":4.5307,"perKm":-320.1,"opPerKm":-4.29,"pProb":0.002,"pProbOp":0.463,"rev":12.0407,"emuCost":2.96,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":30.233333333333334,"2019":27.977777777777778,"2020":47.78055555555556,"2021":49.40277777777778,"2022":48.40277777777778,"2023":60.986111111111114,"2024":55.327777777777776,"2025":58.44444444444444,"2026":42.8125},"cost":{"train":5.093,"infra":7.1,"dep":5.6226,"int":5.5887},"sup":{"qJul":42.8125,"qJan":35.38333333333333,"qYear":38.223,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 42.8 对、2026-01-31周六 35.4 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.2 对/日。","longRate":0.0872163503649635,"carsAvg":8.698,"seatsAvg":652.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率9%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.9127836496350366},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.0872163503649635}],"trainKm":9905515,"carKm":86155501,"seatKm":6461662554},"dem":{"load":0.4501,"loadLo":0.3395,"loadHi":0.5967,"prior":0.4501,"pkm":2908425627,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计45%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.6899878353832822,"real":0.414,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.690（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 0.95 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约13年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.22 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 355 公里 = 991 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.70 节/列 = 8,616 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 652 座/列 = 64.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 45.0% = 29.08 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.690 = 12.04 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 14.0 元 = 5.09 亿元\n线路维护 = 355 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 7.10 亿元\n折旧 = 355 公里 × 0.95 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 5.62 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通13年）× 3.3% = 5.59 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 12.04 − 5.09 − 7.10 − 5.62 − 5.59 = -11.36 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"央视：广湛高铁正式开通","url":"https://news.cctv.com/2025/12/22/ARTIaMw2WQfxkHnKP6xbgjnU251222.shtml","note":"401公里；初期最高64列＝32对，不等于全年平均；模型资本仍为假设。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R198","name":"广湛高铁","km":401,"speed":350,"opened":"2025","region":"华南","via":"广州白云,佛山西,新兴,阳春,茂名,湛江","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-30.9943,"lo":-42.8639,"hi":-21.5875,"opProfit":2.0557,"opLo":-5.7553,"opHi":9.4844,"perKm":-772.93,"opPerKm":51.26,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.623,"rev":22.5852,"emuCost":4.5367,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":41.55},"cost":{"train":8.4995,"infra":12.03,"dep":16.5749,"int":16.4751},"sup":{"qJul":41.55,"qJan":43.5,"qYear":41.699,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 41.5 对、2026-01-31周六 43.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 41.7 对/日。","longRate":0.17006859205776176,"carsAvg":9.412,"seatsAvg":661.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率17%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.8299314079422382},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.17006859205776176}],"trainKm":12206512,"carKm":114882431,"seatKm":8072079141},"dem":{"load":0.4899,"loadLo":0.4027,"loadHi":0.5961,"prior":0.4899,"pkm":3954677279,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计49%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7999999999999999,"ratio":0.7138746461161126,"real":0.5711,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.80 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.714（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.49 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 41.70 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 401 公里 = 1,221 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.41 节/列 = 11,488 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 661 座/列 = 80.72 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.0% = 39.55 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.800 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.714 = 22.59 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 14.6 元 = 8.50 亿元\n线路维护 = 401 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 12.03 亿元\n折旧 = 401 公里 × 2.49 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 16.57 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 16.48 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 22.59 − 8.50 − 12.03 − 16.57 − 16.48 = -30.99 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"央视：广湛高铁正式开通","url":"https://news.cctv.com/2025/12/22/ARTIaMw2WQfxkHnKP6xbgjnU251222.shtml","note":"401公里；初期最高64列＝32对，不等于全年平均；模型资本仍为假设。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R199","name":"广汕高铁","km":203,"speed":350,"opened":"2023","region":"华南","via":"新塘,增城,惠州,惠东,汕尾","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.7105,"lo":-9.9258,"hi":5.7662,"opProfit":12.4,"opLo":5.1503,"opHi":19.5778,"perKm":-84.26,"opPerKm":610.84,"pProb":0.349,"pProbOp":0.989,"rev":27.2876,"emuCost":4.7613,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":59.94,"2025":70.065,"2026":75.73},"cost":{"train":8.7976,"infra":6.09,"dep":7.0766,"int":7.034},"sup":{"qJul":75.73,"qJan":75.4875,"qYear":74.094,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 75.7 对、2026-01-31周六 75.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 74.1 对/日。","longRate":0.3591484880496501,"carsAvg":10.981,"seatsAvg":779.5,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率36%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.64085151195035},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.3591484880496501}],"trainKm":10979922,"carKm":120569785,"seatKm":8558495894},"dem":{"load":0.5777,"loadLo":0.4911,"loadHi":0.6795,"prior":0.5777,"pkm":4944243686,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计58%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7199999999999999,"ratio":0.7665366419101407,"real":0.5519,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.72 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.767（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.10 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 74.09 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 203 公里 = 1,098 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.98 节/列 = 12,057 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 779 座/列 = 85.58 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 57.8% = 49.44 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.720 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.767 = 27.29 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.9 元 = 8.80 亿元\n线路维护 = 203 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 6.09 亿元\n折旧 = 203 公里 × 2.10 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 7.08 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 7.03 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 27.29 − 8.80 − 6.09 − 7.08 − 7.03 = -1.71 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R200","name":"汕汕高铁","km":162,"speed":350,"opened":"2023／2025全线","region":"华南","via":"汕尾,潮阳,汕头","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-7.5354,"lo":-11.651,"hi":-3.9723,"opProfit":1.5803,"opLo":-1.6652,"opHi":4.7547,"perKm":-465.15,"opPerKm":97.55,"pProb":0.006,"pProbOp":0.738,"rev":10.1424,"emuCost":1.987,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":23.0,"2025":24.0,"2026":44.0},"cost":{"train":3.7021,"infra":4.86,"dep":4.5716,"int":4.5441},"sup":{"qJul":44.0,"qJan":43.0,"qYear":42.617,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 44.0 对、2026-01-31周六 43.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 42.6 对/日。","longRate":0.239,"carsAvg":9.984,"seatsAvg":704.4,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率24%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.761},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.239}],"trainKm":5039946,"carKm":50317304,"seatKm":3550011647},"dem":{"load":0.5354,"loadLo":0.4478,"loadHi":0.6401,"prior":0.5354,"pkm":1900646135,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计54%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.72,"ratio":0.7411542734592657,"real":0.5336,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.72 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.741（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.70 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约3年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 42.62 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 162 公里 = 504 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.98 节/列 = 5,032 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 704 座/列 = 35.50 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 53.5% = 19.01 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.720 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.741 = 10.14 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.1 元 = 3.70 亿元\n线路维护 = 162 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 4.86 亿元\n折旧 = 162 公里 × 1.70 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.57 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通3年）× 3.3% = 4.54 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 10.14 − 3.70 − 4.86 − 4.57 − 4.54 = -7.54 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"汕头市政府：汕汕全线开通","url":"https://www.shantou.gov.cn/cnst/ywdt/bmzx/content/post_2499404.html","note":"全线162公里，延伸段19.8公里；本表全线登记一次，不叠加增量段。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R201","name":"梅汕高铁","km":122,"speed":250,"opened":"2019","region":"华南","via":"梅州,揭阳,潮汕","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-7.7707,"lo":-9.9637,"hi":-6.1537,"opProfit":-1.3095,"opLo":-2.5103,"opHi":-0.1866,"perKm":-636.94,"opPerKm":-107.34,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.069,"rev":2.2967,"emuCost":0.6562,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":15.0,"2021":12.5,"2022":9.0,"2023":12.5,"2024":13.8,"2025":16.966666666666665,"2026":26.783333333333335},"cost":{"train":1.1663,"infra":2.44,"dep":3.2403,"int":3.2208},"sup":{"qJul":26.783333333333335,"qJan":15.733333333333333,"qYear":20.695,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 26.8 对、2026-01-31周六 15.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 20.7 对/日。","longRate":0.2954222153080274,"carsAvg":10.363,"seatsAvg":777.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率30%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.7045777846919725},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.2954222153080274}],"trainKm":1843100,"carKm":19100746,"seatKm":1432555930},"dem":{"load":0.4036,"loadLo":0.2973,"loadHi":0.5479,"prior":0.4036,"pkm":578160768,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计40%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.6620800880304958,"real":0.3972,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.662（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.60 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 20.70 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 122 公里 = 184 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 10.36 节/列 = 1,910 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 777 座/列 = 14.33 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 40.4% = 5.78 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.662 = 2.30 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 15.4 元 = 1.17 亿元\n线路维护 = 122 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.44 亿元\n折旧 = 122 公里 × 1.60 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.24 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 3.22 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.30 − 1.17 − 2.44 − 3.24 − 3.22 = -7.77 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R202","name":"梅龙高铁","km":94,"speed":350,"opened":"2024","region":"华南","via":"梅州,龙川","cls":"A","clsName":"350/300 干线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.5326,"lo":-7.7343,"hi":-3.8335,"opProfit":-0.2744,"opLo":-1.8662,"opHi":1.1884,"perKm":-588.58,"opPerKm":-29.19,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.394,"rev":4.2832,"emuCost":0.9323,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":35.5,"2026":34.0},"cost":{"train":1.7376,"infra":2.82,"dep":2.6371,"int":2.6212},"sup":{"qJul":34.0,"qJan":36.5,"qYear":34.576,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 34.0 对、2026-01-31周六 36.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 34.6 对/日。","longRate":0.235,"carsAvg":9.95,"seatsAvg":701.9,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按555座/列（CR400AF/BF与CRH380A/B混用），长编(16/17节)按1180座/列、16.3节；知乎源图长编率24%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":555,"share":0.765},{"cars":16.3,"seats":1180,"share":0.235}],"trainKm":2372622,"carKm":23608778,"seatKm":1665284259},"dem":{"load":0.4973,"loadLo":0.4099,"loadHi":0.6034,"prior":0.4973,"pkm":828173500,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计50%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.72,"ratio":0.718311803955965,"real":0.5172,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.72 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.718（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.69 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 34.58 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 94 公里 = 237 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 9.95 节/列 = 2,361 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 702 座/列 = 16.65 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.7% = 8.28 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.720 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.718 = 4.28 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 5.85 元 + 列车公里 × 15.0 元 = 1.74 亿元\n线路维护 = 94 公里 × 3.00 百万元 = 2.82 亿元\n折旧 = 94 公里 × 1.69 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.64 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 2.62 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 4.28 − 1.74 − 2.82 − 2.64 − 2.62 = -5.53 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R203","name":"广深铁路快速客运对照","km":147,"speed":200,"opened":"提速既有线","region":"华南","via":"广州,东莞,深圳","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-0.8405,"lo":-5.3258,"hi":4.4271,"opProfit":5.4849,"opLo":1.5493,"opHi":9.6043,"perKm":-57.18,"opPerKm":373.12,"pProb":0.435,"pProbOp":0.965,"rev":13.8254,"emuCost":3.1034,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":85.60544217687075,"2018":102.70748299319727,"2019":98.40816326530613,"2020":81.10884353741497,"2021":82.40816326530613,"2022":79.86054421768708,"2023":92.31972789115646,"2024":100.10204081632654,"2025":108.55442176870748,"2026":110.16326530612245},"cost":{"train":5.4005,"infra":2.94,"dep":3.1723,"int":3.1532},"sup":{"qJul":110.16326530612245,"qJan":104.71428571428571,"qYear":105.222,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 110.2 对、2026-01-31周六 104.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 105.2 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":642.4,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：广州—深圳既有线221列中CRH1A 149列（668座）。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":668,"share":0.674,"label":"CRH1A"},{"cars":8,"seats":578,"share":0.154,"label":"CR400AF-S"},{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.172,"label":"其他8节"}],"trainKm":11291361,"carKm":90330886,"seatKm":7254066982},"dem":{"load":0.4931,"loadLo":0.3996,"loadHi":0.6084,"prior":0.5284,"pkm":3576900164,"kind":"der","text":"广深铁路年报：广深城际列车2024年发送2596万人次（含广州东—潮汕跨线车）；广州—深圳全程为主，alpha取0.75。 换算本线口径约43%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线53%按精度合并（本线证据权重35%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广深铁路2024年年报","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5399999999999999,"ratio":0.7157754832889391,"real":0.3865,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.54 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.716（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约11年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 105.22 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 147 公里 = 1,129 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 9,033 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 642 座/列 = 72.54 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 49.3% = 35.77 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.540 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.716 = 13.83 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 5.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 147 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.94 亿元\n折旧 = 147 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 3.17 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通11年）× 3.3% = 3.15 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 13.83 − 5.40 − 2.94 − 3.17 − 3.15 = -0.84 亿元","notes":["地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广深铁路2025年报","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-03-31/1225055040.PDF","note":"广深城际类别含广州东至潮汕跨线动车；收入不能全分给147公里。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"银西高铁五周年","url":"https://nx.people.com.cn/n2/2025/1228/c192482-41456326.html","note":"报道56对，分段全年客公里未披露。"},{"title":"中国铁路官方账号：京津扩能","url":"https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_30960893","note":"2025基本图125对、日运输能力21.35万人次；运能不等于实载。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R204","name":"广珠城际主线","km":116,"speed":200,"opened":"2011–2012","region":"华南","via":"广州南,小榄,中山,珠海","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":1.5364,"lo":-3.0427,"hi":4.4132,"opProfit":5.1973,"opLo":2.2345,"opHi":8.1252,"perKm":132.45,"opPerKm":448.04,"pProb":0.599,"pProbOp":0.99,"rev":11.7001,"emuCost":2.3236,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":54.564655172413794,"2018":92.15086206896552,"2019":91.875,"2020":95.5,"2021":93.72413793103448,"2022":84.94827586206897,"2023":105.70689655172414,"2024":99.17241379310344,"2025":99.73275862068965,"2026":114.08189655172414},"cost":{"train":4.1828,"infra":2.32,"dep":2.4455,"int":1.2154},"sup":{"qJul":114.08189655172414,"qJan":114.70258620689656,"qYear":112.112,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 114.1 对、2026-01-31周六 114.7 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 112.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":7.124,"seatsAvg":499.5,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：393列中CRH6A 198列、CRH6A-A 85列；4节车可重联但12306无标识。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.504,"label":"CRH6A"},{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":0.219,"label":"CRH6A-A"},{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.277,"label":"其他8节跨线"}],"trainKm":9493657,"carKm":67632815,"seatKm":4741967897},"dem":{"load":0.5489,"loadLo":0.4617,"loadHi":0.6524,"prior":0.5333,"pkm":2602679260,"kind":"der","text":"广珠城际2024年暑运发送1,030万人次、日均16.6万人次（广铁）；暑运按比全年日均高约15%折算，全年约5,270万人次；平均乘距按线长的40%（约46公里）。 换算本线口径约57%（沿线发送口径×跨线旅客系数1.05）；与拟合曲线53%按精度合并（本线证据权重44%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广铁：2024年暑运广珠城际日均发送16.6万人次","url":"https://www.21jingji.com/article/20241228/herald/55b78ee355d5c8e4bc139361a3af6bdf.html"}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7492348309962437,"real":0.4495,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.749（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.27 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约15年，按有息负债 25% × 3.3% 计息（盈利老线按30年还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 112.11 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 116 公里 = 949 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 7.12 节/列 = 6,763 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 499 座/列 = 47.42 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 54.9% = 26.03 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.749 = 11.70 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 4.18 亿元\n线路维护 = 116 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.32 亿元\n折旧 = 116 公里 × 1.27 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.45 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 25%（开通15年）× 3.3% = 1.22 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 11.70 − 4.18 − 2.32 − 2.45 − 1.22 = +1.54 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"央视：广湛高铁正式开通","url":"https://news.cctv.com/2025/12/22/ARTIaMw2WQfxkHnKP6xbgjnU251222.shtml","note":"401公里；初期最高64列＝32对，不等于全年平均；模型资本仍为假设。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R205","name":"广珠城际江门支线","km":26.3,"speed":200,"opened":"2011","region":"华南","via":"小榄,江门东","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-0.9452,"lo":-1.4789,"hi":-0.4777,"opProfit":0.1603,"opLo":-0.2634,"opHi":0.5944,"perKm":-359.4,"opPerKm":60.97,"pProb":0.011,"pProbOp":0.67,"rev":1.1756,"emuCost":0.2812,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":19.5,"2018":45.5,"2019":43.5,"2020":58.0,"2021":56.0,"2022":54.0,"2023":74.0,"2024":59.0,"2025":62.0,"2026":59.5},"cost":{"train":0.4893,"infra":0.526,"dep":0.5545,"int":0.5511},"sup":{"qJul":59.5,"qJan":49.5,"qYear":53.285,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 59.5 对、2026-01-31周六 49.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 53.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":8.0,"seatsAvg":570.8,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：140列，CRH6A为主。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.679,"label":"CRH6A"},{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.321,"label":"8节跨线"}],"trainKm":1023019,"carKm":8184150,"seatKm":583942152},"dem":{"load":0.4757,"loadLo":0.3636,"loadHi":0.6224,"prior":0.4757,"pkm":277791177,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计48%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6,"ratio":0.7053534232931444,"real":0.4232,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.60 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.705（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.27 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约15年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 53.28 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 26.3 公里 = 102 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.00 节/列 = 818 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 571 座/列 = 5.84 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 47.6% = 2.78 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.600 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.705 = 1.18 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.30 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.49 亿元\n线路维护 = 26.3 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.53 亿元\n折旧 = 26.3 公里 × 1.27 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.55 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通15年）× 3.3% = 0.55 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 1.18 − 0.49 − 0.53 − 0.55 − 0.55 = -0.95 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"央视：广湛高铁正式开通","url":"https://news.cctv.com/2025/12/22/ARTIaMw2WQfxkHnKP6xbgjnU251222.shtml","note":"401公里；初期最高64列＝32对，不等于全年平均；模型资本仍为假设。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R206","name":"珠机城际一期","km":16.9,"speed":160,"opened":"2020","region":"华南","via":"珠海,横琴","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.0553,"lo":-1.3019,"hi":-0.8805,"opProfit":-0.328,"opLo":-0.4698,"opHi":-0.2137,"perKm":-624.41,"opPerKm":-194.11,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1267,"emuCost":0.0566,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":23.0,"2022":4.5,"2023":13.5,"2024":37.5,"2025":42.5,"2026":39.5},"cost":{"train":0.1167,"infra":0.338,"dep":0.3647,"int":0.3625},"sup":{"qJul":39.5,"qJan":39.5,"qYear":38.71,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 39.5 对、2026-01-31周六 39.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 38.7 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4,"seatsAvg":240.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：S38xx等80列全为CRH6A-A。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":1,"label":"CRH6A-A"}],"trainKm":477565,"carKm":1910261,"seatKm":114615665},"dem":{"load":0.3498,"loadLo":0.2306,"loadHi":0.5306,"prior":0.3498,"pkm":40092724,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计35%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.4860288106354313,"real":0.3159,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.486（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 38.71 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 16.9 公里 = 48 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.00 节/列 = 191 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 240 座/列 = 1.15 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 35.0% = 0.40 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.486 = 0.13 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 10.1 元 = 0.12 亿元\n线路维护 = 16.9 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.34 亿元\n折旧 = 16.9 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.36 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 0.36 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.13 − 0.12 − 0.34 − 0.36 − 0.36 = -1.06 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R207","name":"珠机城际二期","km":22.8,"speed":160,"opened":"2024","region":"华南","via":"横琴,珠海机场","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-2.6251,"lo":-3.2404,"hi":-2.205,"opProfit":-0.4667,"opLo":-0.6495,"opHi":-0.3159,"perKm":-1151.37,"opPerKm":-204.71,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1487,"emuCost":0.0773,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":38.0,"2025":42.5,"2026":40.0},"cost":{"train":0.1594,"infra":0.456,"dep":1.0825,"int":1.0759},"sup":{"qJul":40.0,"qJan":40.0,"qYear":39.2,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 40.0 对、2026-01-31周六 40.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 39.2 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":4,"seatsAvg":240.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"12306：S38xx等80列全为CRH6A-A。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":240,"share":1,"label":"CRH6A-A"}],"trainKm":652445,"carKm":2609779,"seatKm":156586752},"dem":{"load":0.3119,"loadLo":0.2007,"loadHi":0.4847,"prior":0.3119,"pkm":48835132,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计31%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.46846886121516307,"real":0.3045,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.468（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.86 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 39.20 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 22.8 公里 = 65 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 4.00 节/列 = 261 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 240 座/列 = 1.57 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 31.2% = 0.49 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.468 = 0.15 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 10.1 元 = 0.16 亿元\n线路维护 = 22.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.46 亿元\n折旧 = 22.8 公里 × 2.86 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.08 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 1.08 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.15 − 0.16 − 0.46 − 1.08 − 1.08 = -2.63 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R208","name":"广佛肇城际新建段","km":79.7,"speed":200,"opened":"2016","region":"华南","via":"佛山西,三水,肇庆","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.1657,"lo":-6.3201,"hi":-4.3714,"opProfit":-1.7362,"opLo":-2.38,"opHi":-1.2542,"perKm":-648.15,"opPerKm":-217.85,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.4885,"emuCost":0.3188,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":12.0,"2018":19.0,"2019":19.0,"2020":24.0,"2021":10.5,"2022":33.0,"2023":26.5,"2024":33.833333333333336,"2025":35.833333333333336,"2026":27.833333333333332},"cost":{"train":0.6307,"infra":1.594,"dep":1.7199,"int":1.7096},"sup":{"qJul":27.833333333333332,"qJan":29.333333333333332,"qYear":28.03,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 27.8 对、2026-01-31周六 29.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 28.0 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.6,"seatsAvg":444.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约35%、8节约65%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":1630838,"carKm":10763529,"seatKm":724581178},"dem":{"load":0.2387,"loadLo":0.1809,"loadHi":0.3149,"prior":0.3274,"pkm":172935218,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（256万人次）×线长的45%分摊，本线约1.47亿人公里。 换算本线口径约20%；与拟合曲线33%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.43457768934163954,"real":0.2825,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.435（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 28.03 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 79.7 公里 = 163 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.60 节/列 = 1,076 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 444 座/列 = 7.25 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 23.9% = 1.73 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.435 = 0.49 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.63 亿元\n线路维护 = 79.7 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.59 亿元\n折旧 = 79.7 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.72 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 1.71 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.49 − 0.63 − 1.59 − 1.72 − 1.71 = -5.17 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.14999999999999997 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R209","name":"莞惠城际","km":103,"speed":200,"opened":"2016–2017","region":"华南","via":"东莞西,东莞,惠州,小金口","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-9.7549,"lo":-12.431,"hi":-7.97,"opProfit":-0.8567,"opLo":-1.8115,"opHi":-0.0765,"perKm":-947.08,"opPerKm":-83.17,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.082,"rev":2.2616,"emuCost":0.5349,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":24.0,"2018":31.5,"2019":42.0,"2020":24.0,"2021":42.5,"2022":26.0,"2023":29.5,"2024":45.10087719298246,"2025":43.10087719298246,"2026":35.4078947368421},"cost":{"train":1.0582,"infra":2.06,"dep":4.4626,"int":4.4357},"sup":{"qJul":35.4078947368421,"qJan":38.771929824561404,"qYear":36.39,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 35.4 对、2026-01-31周六 38.8 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 36.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.6,"seatsAvg":444.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约35%、8节约65%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":2736176,"carKm":18058765,"seatKm":1215683204},"dem":{"load":0.5106,"loadLo":0.4273,"loadHi":0.6102,"prior":0.3455,"pkm":620768513,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（999万人次）×线长的45%分摊，本线约7.18亿人公里。 换算本线口径约59%；与拟合曲线35%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.6500000000000001,"ratio":0.560489555421293,"real":0.3643,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.560（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.61 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约10年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 36.39 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 103 公里 = 274 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.60 节/列 = 1,806 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 444 座/列 = 12.16 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 51.1% = 6.21 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.560 = 2.26 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 1.06 亿元\n线路维护 = 103 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.06 亿元\n折旧 = 103 公里 × 2.61 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 4.46 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通10年）× 3.3% = 4.44 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 2.26 − 1.06 − 2.06 − 4.46 − 4.44 = -9.75 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R210","name":"广惠城际小金口—惠州北段","km":6.36,"speed":200,"opened":"2025","region":"华南","via":"小金口,惠州北","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-0.4032,"lo":-0.4968,"hi":-0.3331,"opProfit":-0.1296,"opLo":-0.185,"opHi":-0.08,"perKm":-634.02,"opPerKm":-203.72,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0571,"emuCost":0.0301,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":32.0},"cost":{"train":0.0595,"infra":0.1272,"dep":0.1372,"int":0.1364},"sup":{"qJul":32.0,"qJan":35.5,"qYear":33.119,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 32.0 对、2026-01-31周六 35.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 33.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.6,"seatsAvg":444.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约35%、8节约65%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":153764,"carKm":1014841,"seatKm":68317226},"dem":{"load":0.2827,"loadLo":0.1785,"loadHi":0.4476,"prior":0.2827,"pkm":19309954,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计28%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.45494017913984086,"real":0.2957,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.455（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 33.12 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 6.36 公里 = 15 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.60 节/列 = 101 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 444 座/列 = 0.68 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 28.3% = 0.19 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.455 = 0.06 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.06 亿元\n线路维护 = 6.36 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.13 亿元\n折旧 = 6.36 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.14 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 0.14 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.06 − 0.06 − 0.13 − 0.14 − 0.14 = -0.40 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","更正：invPerKm 由 2.61 改为 None——独立审计：修正源图平均投资合并格读数（源图该格为空，改用缺省投资并标注）","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"莞惠北延6.36公里","url":"https://www.zgjtb.com/zhitong/2025-09/29/content_486867.html","note":"地上200、地下160级城际扩展。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"广东港澳办：广惠城际小金口至惠州北段开通","url":"https://www.gdhmo.gov.cn/ygadwqcs/hz/content/post_100519.html","note":"2025-09-29消息，9月28日开通，6.36公里；修正原登记的东莞西—东莞北错起讫。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R211","name":"佛莞城际","km":35,"speed":200,"opened":"2024","region":"华南","via":"广州南,莲花山,东莞西","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-2.1658,"lo":-2.682,"hi":-1.788,"opProfit":-0.6598,"opLo":-0.9609,"opHi":-0.3973,"perKm":-618.81,"opPerKm":-188.51,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.44,"emuCost":0.202,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":45.5,"2025":43.80769230769231,"2026":43.30769230769231},"cost":{"train":0.3997,"infra":0.7,"dep":0.7553,"int":0.7508},"sup":{"qJul":43.30769230769231,"qJan":39.34615384615385,"qYear":40.451,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 43.3 对、2026-01-31周六 39.3 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 40.5 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.6,"seatsAvg":444.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约35%、8节约65%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":1033520,"carKm":6821229,"seatKm":459192763},"dem":{"load":0.314,"loadLo":0.2446,"loadHi":0.403,"prior":0.314,"pkm":144179770,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（573万人次，2024-05-26开通按实际天数年化）×线长的45%分摊，本线约1.44亿人公里。 换算本线口径约31%；与拟合曲线31%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.46944693258767417,"real":0.3051,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.469（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 40.45 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 35 公里 = 103 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.60 节/列 = 682 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 444 座/列 = 4.59 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 31.4% = 1.44 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.469 = 0.44 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.40 亿元\n线路维护 = 35 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.70 亿元\n折旧 = 35 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.76 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 0.75 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.44 − 0.40 − 0.70 − 0.76 − 0.75 = -2.17 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"东环、琶莲、莞惠北延开通","url":"https://www.panyu.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkml/xxgkml/zwdt/fzxw/content/post_10467358.html","note":"2025-09-29开通资料不是独立损益。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R212","name":"广佛南环城际","km":35,"speed":200,"opened":"2024","region":"华南","via":"佛山西,广州南","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":true,"profit":-2.1454,"lo":-2.7113,"hi":-1.7146,"opProfit":-0.6394,"opLo":-0.9831,"opHi":-0.3118,"perKm":-612.99,"opPerKm":-182.69,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.012,"rev":0.5079,"emuCost":0.2261,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":33.5,"2025":39.5,"2026":38.5},"cost":{"train":0.4473,"infra":0.7,"dep":0.7553,"int":0.7508},"sup":{"qJul":38.5,"qJan":53.5,"qYear":45.267,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 38.5 对、2026-01-31周六 53.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 45.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":6.6,"seatsAvg":444.3,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约35%、8节约65%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":1156585,"carKm":7633459,"seatKm":513870549},"dem":{"load":0.3215,"loadLo":0.2082,"loadHi":0.4966,"prior":0.3215,"pkm":165225463,"kind":"curve","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（255万人次，2024-05-26开通按实际天数年化）×线长的45%分摊，本线约0.64亿人公里。 公司客流只含自营车次，知乎开行可能含其他车次，只作下界。 换算本线口径下界约12%，拟合曲线32%已高于下界，采用曲线值。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.47294052503764095,"real":0.3074,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.473（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约2年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 45.27 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 35 公里 = 116 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 6.60 节/列 = 763 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 444 座/列 = 5.14 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 32.2% = 1.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.473 = 0.51 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.45 亿元\n线路维护 = 35 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.70 亿元\n折旧 = 35 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.76 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通2年）× 3.3% = 0.75 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.51 − 0.45 − 0.70 − 0.76 − 0.75 = -2.15 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"东环、琶莲、莞惠北延开通","url":"https://www.panyu.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkml/xxgkml/zwdt/fzxw/content/post_10467358.html","note":"2025-09-29开通资料不是独立损益。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R213","name":"广清城际一期","km":38.2,"speed":200,"opened":"2020","region":"华南","via":"花都,清城","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-5.4302,"lo":-6.746,"hi":-4.5559,"opProfit":-0.8024,"opLo":-1.0984,"opHi":-0.5667,"perKm":-1421.52,"opPerKm":-210.06,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2596,"emuCost":0.1399,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":42.0,"2022":42.0,"2023":48.0,"2024":50.0,"2025":47.0,"2026":32.0},"cost":{"train":0.298,"infra":0.764,"dep":2.3209,"int":2.3069},"sup":{"qJul":32.0,"qJan":32.0,"qYear":31.36,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 32.0 对、2026-01-31周六 32.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 31.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.4,"seatsAvg":347.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约65%、8节约35%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":874505,"carKm":4722327,"seatKm":304065375},"dem":{"load":0.2874,"loadLo":0.2217,"loadHi":0.3724,"prior":0.3351,"pkm":87374673,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（295万人次）×线长的45%分摊，本线约0.81亿人公里。 换算本线口径约27%；与拟合曲线34%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.45711780254746714,"real":0.2971,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.457（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 3.66 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 31.36 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 38.2 公里 = 87 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.40 节/列 = 472 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 348 座/列 = 3.04 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 28.7% = 0.87 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.457 = 0.26 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.30 亿元\n线路维护 = 38.2 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.76 亿元\n折旧 = 38.2 公里 × 3.66 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.32 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 2.31 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.26 − 0.30 − 0.76 − 2.32 − 2.31 = -5.43 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R214","name":"广清城际南延","km":22,"speed":200,"opened":"2026","region":"华南","via":"广州白云,花都","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-3.2601,"lo":-4.0482,"hi":-2.7337,"opProfit":-0.4783,"opLo":-0.6537,"opHi":-0.3232,"perKm":-1481.85,"opPerKm":-217.43,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.16,"emuCost":0.0931,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":38.0},"cost":{"train":0.1983,"infra":0.44,"dep":1.3951,"int":1.3867},"sup":{"qJul":38.0,"qJan":36.0,"qYear":36.235,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 38.0 对、2026-01-31周六 36.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 36.2 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.4,"seatsAvg":347.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约65%、8节约35%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.65,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.35,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":581934,"carKm":3142444,"seatKm":202338487},"dem":{"load":0.2707,"loadLo":0.1696,"loadHi":0.4319,"prior":0.2707,"pkm":54770353,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计27%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.4494009298538312,"real":0.2921,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.449（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 3.82 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约0年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 36.23 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 22 公里 = 58 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.40 节/列 = 314 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 348 座/列 = 2.02 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 27.1% = 0.55 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.449 = 0.16 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.20 亿元\n线路维护 = 22 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.44 亿元\n折旧 = 22 公里 × 3.82 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 1.40 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通0年）× 3.3% = 1.39 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.16 − 0.20 − 0.44 − 1.40 − 1.39 = -3.26 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广清南延开通","url":"https://www.huadu.gov.cn/hdzx/tpxw/content/post_10679979.html","note":"2026-01-28，22公里、72列即36对。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R215","name":"广州东环花都机场段","km":22.6,"speed":160,"opened":"2020","region":"华南","via":"花都,白云机场","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.5132,"lo":-1.8439,"hi":-1.2792,"opProfit":-0.5407,"opLo":-0.7207,"opHi":-0.4072,"perKm":-669.54,"opPerKm":-239.24,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.1177,"emuCost":0.1021,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":29.5,"2022":29.5,"2023":34.5,"2024":34.5,"2025":33.5,"2026":35.5},"cost":{"train":0.2064,"infra":0.452,"dep":0.4877,"int":0.4848},"sup":{"qJul":35.5,"qJan":40.5,"qYear":37.302,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 35.5 对、2026-01-31周六 40.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 37.3 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.6,"seatsAvg":363.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约60%、8节约40%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.6,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.4,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":615417,"carKm":3446333,"seatKm":223888575},"dem":{"load":0.1864,"loadLo":0.1386,"loadHi":0.2506,"prior":0.3472,"pkm":41736027,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（124万人次）×线长的45%分摊，本线约0.30亿人公里。 换算本线口径约13%；与拟合曲线35%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.4340363772519884,"real":0.2821,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.434（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约6年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 37.30 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 22.6 公里 = 62 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.60 节/列 = 345 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 364 座/列 = 2.24 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 18.6% = 0.42 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.434 = 0.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.21 亿元\n线路维护 = 22.6 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.45 亿元\n折旧 = 22.6 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.49 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通6年）× 3.3% = 0.48 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.12 − 0.21 − 0.45 − 0.49 − 0.48 = -1.51 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R216","name":"广州东环机场竹料连接段","km":6.8,"speed":160,"opened":"2025","region":"华南","via":"白云机场,竹料","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"schematic","rank":false,"profit":-0.419,"lo":-0.5324,"hi":-0.3323,"opProfit":-0.1264,"opLo":-0.1972,"opHi":-0.0583,"perKm":-616.12,"opPerKm":-185.82,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.017,"rev":0.1161,"emuCost":0.0526,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":66.5},"cost":{"train":0.1064,"infra":0.136,"dep":0.1467,"int":0.1459},"sup":{"qJul":66.5,"qJan":64.0,"qYear":63.914,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 66.5 对、2026-01-31周六 64.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 63.9 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.6,"seatsAvg":363.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约60%、8节约40%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.6,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.4,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":317268,"carKm":1776700,"seatKm":115422046},"dem":{"load":0.3258,"loadLo":0.2115,"loadHi":0.5018,"prior":0.3258,"pkm":37599492,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计33%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.47489671783468873,"real":0.3087,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.475（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 63.91 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 6.8 公里 = 32 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.60 节/列 = 178 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 364 座/列 = 1.15 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 32.6% = 0.38 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.475 = 0.12 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.11 亿元\n线路维护 = 6.8 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.14 亿元\n折旧 = 6.8 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.15 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 0.15 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.12 − 0.11 − 0.14 − 0.15 − 0.15 = -0.42 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形为城市间示意走廊，不是精确轨道。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"东环、琶莲、莞惠北延开通","url":"https://www.panyu.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkml/xxgkml/zwdt/fzxw/content/post_10467358.html","note":"2025-09-29开通资料不是独立损益。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R217","name":"穗深城际既有段","km":73.9,"speed":200,"opened":"2019","region":"华南","via":"新塘,东莞,深圳机场","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.864,"lo":-8.5322,"hi":-5.7326,"opProfit":-1.3114,"opLo":-1.9173,"opHi":-0.8356,"perKm":-928.82,"opPerKm":-177.45,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.7099,"emuCost":0.2853,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":15.0,"2021":29.5,"2022":22.5,"2023":20.5,"2024":23.0,"2025":23.0,"2026":24.746575342465754},"cost":{"train":0.5433,"infra":1.478,"dep":2.7847,"int":2.7679},"sup":{"qJul":24.746575342465754,"qJan":24.5,"qYear":24.128,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 24.7 对、2026-01-31周六 24.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 24.1 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":7.4,"seatsAvg":508.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约15%、8节约85%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.15,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.85,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":1301619,"carKm":9631982,"seatKm":662133674},"dem":{"load":0.3419,"loadLo":0.2691,"loadHi":0.4345,"prior":0.3172,"pkm":226411705,"kind":"der","text":"广东珠三角城际公司7线2024年票款约6.5亿元（1–9月4.71亿元年化），按实收约0.57元/人公里得7线合计约11.3亿人公里，2026年按+25%（2025年客流较2024年约+29%）；按各线年化客流（441万人次）×线长的45%分摊，本线约2.34亿人公里。 换算本线口径约35%；与拟合曲线32%按精度合并（本线证据权重68%）。","evidence":[{"text":"广东珠三角城际轨道交通公司评级报告：7线2024年1–9月客流与票款（research/bond-line-data.md）","url":null}],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.482390387410377,"real":0.3136,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.482（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 2.27 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约7年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 24.13 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 73.9 公里 = 130 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 7.40 节/列 = 963 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 509 座/列 = 6.62 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 34.2% = 2.26 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.482 = 0.71 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.54 亿元\n线路维护 = 73.9 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.48 亿元\n折旧 = 73.9 公里 × 2.27 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.78 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通7年）× 3.3% = 2.77 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.71 − 0.54 − 1.48 − 2.78 − 2.77 = -6.86 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15000000000000002 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知","地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"广州市：穗深日均50列","url":"https://www.gz.gov.cn/zwfw/zxfw/jtfw/content/post_10679383.html","note":"50列为25对。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R218","name":"穗深城际竹料新塘南段","km":48.2,"speed":200,"opened":"2026","region":"华南","via":"竹料,新塘","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-2.7768,"lo":-3.3879,"hi":-2.3617,"opProfit":-1.0219,"opLo":-1.396,"opHi":-0.753,"perKm":-576.1,"opPerKm":-212.0,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0513,"emuCost":0.0573,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{},"cost":{"train":0.1091,"infra":0.964,"dep":0.8801,"int":0.8748},"sup":{"qJul":7.7818283156509205,"qJan":null,"qYear":7.432,"kind":"asm","text":"该线未进入知乎分段表，开行对数沿用前一版相似线路推算。 折算后 7.4 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":7.4,"seatsAvg":508.7,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约15%、8节约85%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.15,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.85,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":261490,"carKm":1935025,"seatKm":133019911},"dem":{"load":0.185,"loadLo":0.1098,"loadHi":0.3119,"prior":0.185,"pkm":24615069,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计19%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.48,"ratio":0.4340363772519884,"real":0.2083,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.48 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.434（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.10 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约0年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 7.43 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 48.2 公里 = 26 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 7.40 节/列 = 194 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 509 座/列 = 1.33 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 18.5% = 0.25 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.480 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.434 = 0.05 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.83 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.11 亿元\n线路维护 = 48.2 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.96 亿元\n折旧 = 48.2 公里 × 1.10 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.88 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通0年）× 3.3% = 0.87 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.05 − 0.11 − 0.96 − 0.88 − 0.87 = -2.78 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。","开行对数不来自知乎分段表，不确定性更大（蒙特卡洛按±35%对数标准差）。"],"sources":[{"title":"穗深竹料新塘南段开通","url":"https://www.hp.gov.cn/gzhpzsc/gkmlpt/content/10/10961/post_10961131.html","note":"2026开通48.2公里，不采用旧61.7公里范围。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"沪苏湖首年客流和开行","url":"https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/2025/12-26/10540915.shtml","note":"3360万人、期末111.5对，非首年平均。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R219","name":"琶莲城际","km":17.6,"speed":160,"opened":"2025","region":"华南","via":"琶洲,莲花山","cls":"M","clsName":"城际·市域（公交化）","commuter":true,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-1.1275,"lo":-1.3807,"hi":-0.9499,"opProfit":-0.3701,"opLo":-0.5105,"opHi":-0.2592,"perKm":-640.6,"opPerKm":-210.3,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.0831,"emuCost":0.05,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":25.5},"cost":{"train":0.1012,"infra":0.352,"dep":0.3798,"int":0.3775},"sup":{"qJul":25.5,"qJan":22.5,"qYear":23.482,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 25.5 对、2026-01-31周六 22.5 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 23.5 对/日。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":5.6,"seatsAvg":363.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"4节约60%、8节约40%：广东城际公司自营车次12306无车型字段；按2021年采购30组4编组、运行图“4+8编组混跑”及节假日4→8改编推定（假设）。","mix":[{"cars":4,"seats":235,"share":0.6,"label":"CRH6A-A/CRH6F-A 4节"},{"cars":8,"seats":557,"share":0.4,"label":"CRH6A 8节"}],"trainKm":301703,"carKm":1689538,"seatKm":109759610},"dem":{"load":0.2615,"loadLo":0.1629,"loadHi":0.4198,"prior":0.2615,"pkm":28706242,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计26%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.65,"ratio":0.44516501849994844,"real":0.2894,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.65 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.445（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.30 亿元/公里（源图缺投资，按缺省1.30）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 23.48 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 17.6 公里 = 30 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 5.60 节/列 = 169 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 364 座/列 = 1.10 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 26.2% = 0.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.650 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.445 = 0.08 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 3.60 元 + 列车公里 × 13.4 元 = 0.10 亿元\n线路维护 = 17.6 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 0.35 亿元\n折旧 = 17.6 公里 × 1.30 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 0.38 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 0.38 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.08 − 0.10 − 0.35 − 0.38 − 0.38 = -1.13 亿元","notes":["更正：longRate 由 0.15 改为 None——源图“—”为市域线未统计长编率（作者说明），旧版按15%填补，现改为未知"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"东环、琶莲、莞惠北延开通","url":"https://www.panyu.gov.cn/zwgk/zfxxgkml/xxgkml/zwdt/fzxw/content/post_10467358.html","note":"2025-09-29开通资料不是独立损益。"},{"title":"广东省交通厅：2025-10-25调图与优惠票","url":"https://td.gd.gov.cn/gkmlpt/content/4/4791/post_4791025.html","note":"五条城际网络239列次；9折与多元支付8.1折、计次定期票并存，不能把全网班次分配给每段。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"本项目12306车型枚举（2026-09-30全日C/D/G/S约1.6万列，交路车型）","url":null},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R220","name":"台湾高铁","km":350,"speed":300,"opened":"2007","region":"台湾","via":"台北,桃园,新竹,台中,嘉义,台南,左营","cls":"T","clsName":"台湾高铁","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":30.1705,"lo":8.971,"hi":52.5516,"opProfit":76.7341,"opLo":55.7243,"opHi":99.0831,"perKm":862.01,"opPerKm":2192.4,"pProb":0.974,"pProbOp":1.0,"rev":121.2171,"emuCost":0,"fixedYield":true,"fixedInt":true,"hist":{"2017":69.97126436781609,"2018":70.47126436781609,"2019":77.38505747126437,"2020":64.48563218390805,"2021":45.0,"2022":70.95689655172414,"2023":70.95689655172414,"2024":74.69971264367815,"2025":78.45689655172414,"2026":77.21408045977012},"cost":{"train":27.0016,"infra":17.4814,"dep":31.7197,"int":14.8439},"sup":{"qJul":77.21408045977012,"qJan":76.94252873563218,"qYear":76.93,"kind":"obs","text":"台湾高铁2025年全年开行59,606班、列车公里19,655,568（官方运输统计），按登记350公里折合76.9对/日全程当量。","longRate":null,"carsAvg":12.0,"seatsAvg":977.0,"fleetKind":"obs","fleetText":"700T/N700ST 12节，按官方座公里÷列车公里折合约977座/列（标称989座）。","mix":[{"cars":12,"seats":977.0000140418226,"share":1.0,"label":"12节"}],"trainKm":19655568,"carKm":235866816,"seatKm":19203490212},"dem":{"load":0.7159,"loadLo":0.703,"loadHi":0.7291,"prior":0.6017,"pkm":13747778643,"kind":"obs","text":"台湾高铁2025年官方运输统计：客公里137.48亿÷座公里192.03亿=71.59%。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.881721190769989,"ratio":1.0,"real":0.8817,"kind":"obs","text":"2025年铁路运输收入527.30亿新台币÷客公里137.48亿，按1人民币≈4.35新台币（2025年平均约值）折合。"},"capText":"投资 5.33 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约19年，利息按公司实际财务费用。","calc":"客公里 = 137.48 亿人公里（2025年官方运输统计），座公里 = 192.03 亿\n票款收入 = 铁路运输收入527.30亿新台币 ÷ 4.35 = 121.22 亿元\n运营成本（剔除折旧摊销）= 193.50亿新台币 ÷ 4.35 = 44.48 亿元（按模型结构拆为列车 27.00、线路 17.48）\n折旧摊销 = 137.98亿新台币 ÷ 4.35 = 31.72 亿元；利息 = 64.57亿新台币 ÷ 4.35 = 14.84 亿元\n年度盈亏 = +30.17 亿元（未扣平稳基金提拨73.39亿新台币）","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"台湾高铁公司：2025年度财务摘要","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/ArticleContent/28712246-c87d-4a2e-bdab-304311f4e753","note":"2026-05-27发布；2025年税后净利65.8亿元新台币。人民币换算仍是假设汇率1:4.5。"},{"title":"台湾高铁：逐月旅客人数与延人公里","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/corp/9571df11-8524-4935-8a46-0d5a72e6bc7c","note":"2025年12个月实际数据。"},{"title":"台湾高铁：逐月运输能量","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/corp/78bd8bc3-9847-4087-a154-975937a5d043","note":"列次、列车公里、座位公里，全年座公里加权。"},{"title":"连镇五周年","url":"https://www.yzwb.net/news/jiangsu/202512/t20251212_299757.html","note":"五年累计8750万人。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"台湾高铁2025年运输统计（客公里、座公里）","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/corp/9571df11-8524-4935-8a46-0d5a72e6bc7c"},{"title":"台湾高铁2024/2025审计财报","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/Corp/e12c0774-d30f-49bd-8541-f1d70a6a161f/assets/bf741a41-63a9-4fe3-a55c-13c7b09d5f8e.pdf"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":{"company":"台湾高铁公司","year":"2025","netProfit":15.12,"revenue":125.63,"note":"税前81.2亿、税后65.8亿新台币，按4.35折算；已扣平稳基金费用。","url":"https://www.thsrc.com.tw/ArticleContent/28712246-c87d-4a2e-bdab-304311f4e753"}},{"id":"R221","name":"南凭高铁南崇段","km":119.294,"speed":250,"opened":"2022-12-05","region":"华南","via":"南宁,吴圩机场,扶绥,崇左","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"osm","rank":true,"profit":-8.1473,"lo":-10.0615,"hi":-6.8311,"opProfit":-2.1849,"opLo":-3.1279,"opHi":-1.4637,"perKm":-682.96,"opPerKm":-183.15,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.001,"rev":0.7307,"emuCost":0.2904,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":16.0,"2024":10.0,"2025":15.0,"2026":14.0},"cost":{"train":0.5297,"infra":2.3859,"dep":2.9902,"int":2.9722},"sup":{"qJul":14.0,"qJan":10.0,"qYear":11.71,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 14.0 对、2026-01-31周六 10.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 11.7 对/日。","longRate":0.036000000000000004,"carsAvg":8.288,"seatsAvg":621.6,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率4%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.964},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.036000000000000004}],"trainKm":1019761,"carKm":8451778,"seatKm":633883376},"dem":{"load":0.3619,"loadLo":0.2609,"loadHi":0.5019,"prior":0.3619,"pkm":229397527,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计36%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.5,"ratio":0.63706607956953,"real":0.3185,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.50 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.637（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.51 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约4年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 11.71 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 119.294 公里 = 102 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.29 节/列 = 845 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 622 座/列 = 6.34 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 36.2% = 2.29 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.500 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.637 = 0.73 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 13.6 元 = 0.53 亿元\n线路维护 = 119.294 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 2.39 亿元\n折旧 = 119.294 公里 × 1.51 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.99 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通4年）× 3.3% = 2.97 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.73 − 0.53 − 2.39 − 2.99 − 2.97 = -8.15 亿元","notes":[],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"中铁四局：南崇铁路正式开通","url":"https://www.crec4.com/content-2141-34551-1.html","note":"2022-12-05开通，119.294公里；未披露财务。"},{"title":"四川在线：巴南高铁首年运营","url":"https://sichuan.scol.com.cn/ggxw/202506/83073428.html","note":"首年运送700万余人次、近万列；日常29列，高峰34列。"},{"title":"长江日报：武咸新城快线开通（2026-04-26）","url":"https://cjrb.cjn.cn/resfile/2026-04-26/4/26r04c.pdf","note":"新城快线8.5对加原有城际3.5对；此为4月时点，后续加密需作为变动情景。"},{"title":"黄山市政府：池黄高铁运营一周年","url":"https://www.huangshan.gov.cn/zfsj/sjjd/8412182.html","note":"首年运客逾300万；日开行从24列增至54列，时点运行图。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null},{"id":"R222","name":"南凭高铁崇凭段","km":81,"speed":250,"opened":"2025-12-05","region":"华南","via":"崇左,宁明,龙州,凭祥","cls":"B","clsName":"250 及 200 快速线","commuter":false,"geoQ":"partial","rank":true,"profit":-6.4932,"lo":-8.0189,"hi":-5.458,"opProfit":-1.56,"opLo":-2.1842,"opHi":-1.1106,"perKm":-801.63,"opPerKm":-192.59,"pProb":0.0,"pProbOp":0.0,"rev":0.2638,"emuCost":0.1123,"fixedYield":false,"fixedInt":false,"hist":{"2017":0.0,"2018":0.0,"2019":0.0,"2020":0.0,"2021":0.0,"2022":0.0,"2023":0.0,"2024":0.0,"2025":0.0,"2026":6.0},"cost":{"train":0.2038,"infra":1.62,"dep":2.4741,"int":2.4592},"sup":{"qJul":6.0,"qJan":7.0,"qYear":6.382,"kind":"obs","text":"知乎源图2026-07-18周六 6.0 对、2026-01-31周六 7.0 对（按计价里程加权到本线）；全年日均 = ½×0.95×7月 + ½×1.00×1月 = 6.4 对/日。","longRate":0.083,"carsAvg":8.664,"seatsAvg":649.8,"fleetKind":"der","fleetText":"8节短编按600座/列（CRH2A/CRH380A/CR300类混用），重联或16节按1200座/列；知乎源图长编率8%。","mix":[{"cars":8,"seats":600,"share":0.917},{"cars":16,"seats":1200,"share":0.083}],"trainKm":377397,"carKm":3269770,"seatKm":245232717},"dem":{"load":0.2653,"loadLo":0.1821,"loadHi":0.3867,"prior":0.2653,"pkm":65067901,"kind":"curve","text":"本线无可用全年客流实测；按拟合曲线（开行密度、线路类型、开通年限）估计27%。曲线由44条逐线标签和全国动车组客公里总量共同校准。","evidence":[],"flag":null},"fare":{"pub":0.7,"ratio":0.5791357337472822,"real":0.4054,"kind":"der","text":"公布二等座 0.70 元/公里（知乎源图，多段时按计价里程加权）× 实收系数 0.579（全国客运收入校准）；已含一等/商务座与折扣，不含增值税。"},"capText":"投资 1.84 亿元/公里（源图作者整理的项目平均投资）；开通约1年，按有息负债 50% × 3.3% 计息（亏损或新线不还本）。","calc":"列车公里 = 6.38 对/日 × 2 × 365 × 81 公里 = 38 万列公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 8.66 节/列 = 327 万车辆公里\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 650 座/列 = 2.45 亿座公里\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率 26.5% = 0.65 亿人公里\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 0.700 元/公里 × 实收系数 0.579 = 0.26 亿元\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × 4.62 元 + 列车公里 × 14.0 元 = 0.20 亿元\n线路维护 = 81 公里 × 2.00 百万元 = 1.62 亿元\n折旧 = 81 公里 × 1.84 亿元/公里 × 1.7% = 2.47 亿元\n利息 = 投资 × 有息负债 50%（开通1年）× 3.3% = 2.46 亿元\n年度盈亏 = 0.26 − 0.20 − 1.62 − 2.47 − 2.46 = -6.49 亿元","notes":["地图线形部分来自OSM轨道，部分为示意连接。"],"sources":[{"title":"知乎“吡啶”：2026年7月高铁车次密度图（逐段开行、长编率、公布票价、投资）","url":"https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/2071349804232396955","note":"第三方单日统计，按计价里程加权到本线"},{"title":"国铁开通信息／人民日报","url":"https://paper.people.com.cn/rmrb/pc/attachement/202512/06/3fe550e4-1854-4550-8664-ea77f266e54c.pdf","note":"2025-12-05开通；约81公里、250km/h、每日4对；不披露净利润。"},{"title":"京沪高铁2025年年报（实收、成本分项、折旧）","url":"https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-21/1225132016.PDF","note":"全国参数校准，非本线数据"}],"disclosed":null}],"methodsHTML":"

本站对222条线路（大陆220条、香港段、台湾高铁）逐条测算一个完整年度的客运盈亏：税前、补贴前，含折旧与利息（“全成本”），并给出不扣折旧利息的“运营层”。\n全成本口径下 31 条线路中心估计为盈利，运营层口径下 81 条。页面顶部的“合计年度盈亏”为排行榜全部线路之和（含台湾高铁、香港段）；以下为大陆线路合计（全成本 -886 亿元）：票款 4,339 亿元，列车运营 1,800 亿元，线路维护 1,290 亿元，折旧 1,139 亿元，利息 1,005 亿元。

\n
本次重做改变了什么
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计算公式
列车公里 = 全年日均对数 × 2 × 365 × 线路公里\n车辆公里 = 列车公里 × 平均节数（4节/8节/16–17节按列次份额加权）\n座公里 = 列车公里 × 平均座位（只计座位，不含站立）\n客公里 = 座公里 × 客座率（客公里÷座公里；城际允许超过100%表示站立）\n票款收入 = 客公里 × 公布二等座价（元/公里）× 实收系数\n列车运营 = 车辆公里 × (动车组经济成本 + 能源) + 列车公里 × 乘务\n线路维护 = 线路公里 × 每公里维护费\n折旧 = 线路公里 × 投资/公里 × 年折旧率\n利息 = 线路公里 × 投资/公里 × 有息负债比例 × 利率\n年度盈亏 = 票款收入 − 列车运营 − 线路维护 − 折旧 − 利息
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系统口径：一条线路上所有列车（本线担当与跨线）的本线区段客公里都计入该线收入；路网使用费等内部清算相互抵消，不另计收入或成本。动车组经济成本包含车组折旧、检修和资金成本（不含国铁内部租赁结算中的回报），线路投资中的车组购置部分不再计提线路折旧。

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参数与来源
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参数取值单位性质依据
全年日均÷7月周六0.955全年日均÷2026-07-18周六推算全年日均÷7月暑期周六：京沪2018/2024年报列公里÷同期周六快照0.99/1.01（主干线上限）；全国1–8月日均÷暑运日均0.967/0.990，但分子含春运五一、缺9–12月淡季、周六略高于暑运日均（独立审核建议0.93–0.95）。取0.955，区间0.93–0.99。
全年日均÷1月周六1.005全年日均÷2026-01-31周六推算0.955÷全网1月/7月快照比0.949≈1.006
350线8节座位555座/列(8节)推算CR400AF 576、CR400BF 576、CRH380B/CRH3C 556、CRH380A 494（独立审核更正）；按现役构成加权约555
350线长编座位1180座/列(16/17节)推算CR400AF-A/BF-A 1193、CR400AF-B 1283、CRH380AL 1061、CRH380BL 1015
350线长编节数16.3节/列假设16节为主、部分17节
250线8节座位600座/列(8节)推算CRH2A 610、CRH380A 556、CR300AF 613、CRH5A 586
250线长编座位1200座/列(重联)推算两列8节重联
250线长编节数16节/列推算重联
城际8节座位（无车型数据时）557座/列(8节)推算CRH6A 8节
实收系数（校准前）0.933实收÷调价前公布二等座价推算京沪2025客运收入157.22亿元÷担当客公里306.33亿=0.513元/人公里；÷调价前公布价0.55（2026-05-26起上浮20%至0.66，662→794元）=0.933；待全国客运收入校准
城际实收系数（校准前）0.72实收÷公布价假设公交化城际计次/折扣
缺省票价0.45元/公里假设缺公布价时
动车组经济成本3.949元/营业车辆公里（经济成本）推算国铁总账校准：京沪招股书的动车组使用费8.05元/车辆公里是国铁内部租赁结算价（含车组公司回报），合并报表中相互抵消。以国铁2025年运输业务合计−715亿元、货运与普速客运合计约+100亿元（−300至+500）、高铁约92%纳入合并范围求解；自下而上核对：车组折旧约1.3元（约4.2万辆×1,800万元÷20年）+检修约2.2元+资金成本约0.5元≈4.0元。运行时按总账约束求解。
250级车组费用倍数0.87倍推算招股书250级与350级合同单价7.53/8.69
能源（350级）1.9元/车辆公里推算京沪全线能源费÷全线座公里×72座/节
能源速度指数1.4指数假设空气阻力随速度上升
乘务及商务服务13.4元/列车公里(8节)推算京沪2019乘务52540万元+商务服务1.03亿元÷营业车辆公里×8=11.2元，按2019→2026工资上浮约12%
线路维护（350线）3百万元/公里/年推算京沪招股书2019维站等固定费用年化÷1318公里×1.12价格
线路维护（250线）2百万元/公里/年假设250级维修工作量约为350级的七成（独立审核），3.0×0.7≈2.1，取2.0
线路维护（城际）2百万元/公里/年假设城际站密但速度低
缺省投资1.3亿元/公里假设缺投资时
年折旧率0.0166年折旧/原始投资推算国铁2024年全部折旧2,074亿元，扣普速网、机车、货车约600亿元（±200）和动车组折旧约350亿元后，线路折旧约1,140亿元÷投资约6.86万亿元≈1.66%；投资中征地、建设期利息不计提折旧。京沪2025年为2.13%（路基桥隧比重高且含京福安徽资产）。
有息负债比例0.5开通时有息负债/投资假设项目资本金约50%，其余为贷款
还本年限30年假设线性还本
利率0.033年利率假设国铁2024年财务费用1,639亿元÷有息负债约5万亿≈3.3%（存量平均）
城际车组费用倍数0.75倍假设CRH6/4节城际车购置与检修单价低于250级干线车
还本规则—假设全成本（按50%负债计息）为正且开通≥5年的线路按30年直线还本；其余线路负债率保持50%。亏损线路靠续贷维持
全国票款校准系数 k0.804倍推算国铁2025年动车组客运收入推算约4,600亿元（4,200–4,950；research/cr-finance.md）× 高铁线路占比约93.5% × 2026年增长约3% ≈ 4,430亿元；京沪按自身实测实收0.513元/人公里，不参与缩放
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客座率怎么来的\n

先算全网：模型线路座公里 19,575 亿，全国动车组客公里约束 11,000 亿人公里（2025年全国动车组周转量约11,230亿人公里（上半年5,454.29亿实测外推）× 模型覆盖线路占比约93%（90–96%）× 2026年增长约5%（1–8月开行+5.0%）≈11,000亿），全网平均客座率约 56%。\n“全路高铁平均73%”来自国铁人士的说法，口径未定义；若按客公里÷座公里理解，需要约1.45万亿人公里，超过全国全部动车组客公里，因此本站不把73%当客公里约束。旧版多条线路共用71.7%、并向73%收缩，与全国总量不符。

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逐线差异用一条拟合曲线描述：logit(客座率) = a + β·ln(对/日÷100) + 运营模式（250/200快速线、公交化城际）修正 + 新线爬坡。曲线用下表 44 条逐线客流证据和全国总量共同拟合（最大后验）。拟合结果：a=0.49，开行每翻一倍 logit 升0.21，250/200线修正 -0.40，城际修正 -0.82，新线修正 -0.35，线路间残差 τ=0.45（logit）。\n“沿线发送”型人数不含从其他线路进入本线的跨线旅客：尽端线按×1.05、支线按×1.2放大，通道中段线路（湖杭、郑徐、沪苏湖等）只作下界。开行密度斜率的先验参照日本新干线17个区段的公开乘车率（开行列数翻倍，logit约升0.4），拟合值 β=0.31。全网客座率为 56% 左右，与全国动车组客公里一致。有本线证据的线路，按精度把本线证据与曲线合并；没有的线路只用曲线，页面标为“曲线估计”并给出区间，不当作实测。

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线路对/日本线证据（换算后）曲线采用标准化残差
京沪高铁148.171%65%70%-0.59
广深港高铁内地段175.565%66%66%+0.09
广深港高铁香港段107.159%53%58%-0.49
哈大高铁77.178%60%64%-1.04
京津城际主线112.736%63%51%+1.95
京唐城际29.674%53%59%-1.38
京张高铁主线96.839%62%57%+1.29
银西高铁37.326%45%38%+1.20
兰新高铁14.7≥51%38%56%-0.77
哈齐高铁43.0≥32%46%46%下界已满足
哈牡高铁38.7≥17%45%45%下界已满足
沈白高铁20.666%44%49%-1.31
沈丹客专31.1≥56%43%61%-0.72
济青高铁64.235%59%53%+1.37
连镇高铁新建区段65.9≥22%49%49%下界已满足
沪苏湖高铁100.6≥35%58%58%下界已满足
合蚌高铁33.366%54%57%-0.75
宁杭高铁103.356%62%61%+0.41
池黄高铁16.9≥28%44%44%下界已满足
杭黄高铁48.5≥9%47%47%下界已满足
湖杭高铁105.3≥17%62%62%下界已满足
杭温高铁37.0≥47%50%50%下界已满足
杭台高铁新建段33.664%54%56%-0.57
金温新双线52.824%48%39%+1.48
温福铁路69.862%50%54%-0.73
既有福厦铁路94.161%52%56%-0.56
福平铁路22.912%41%29%+2.24
汉十高铁49.6≥21%57%57%下界已满足
郑渝高铁襄万段45.868%56%60%-0.75
郑徐高铁82.1≥24%61%61%下界已满足
郑开城际46.746%36%44%-0.79
长株潭城际57.560%38%54%-1.66
渝厦重庆东黔江段29.431%46%43%+0.91
成渝高铁99.1≥32%62%62%下界已满足
海南东环高铁51.357%47%51%-0.54
广深铁路快速客运对照105.243%53%49%+0.58
广珠城际主线112.157%53%55%-0.22
广佛肇城际新建段28.020%33%24%+1.15
莞惠城际36.459%34%51%-1.77
佛莞城际40.531%31%31%-0.00
广佛南环城际45.3≥12%32%32%下界已满足
广清城际一期31.427%34%29%+0.58
广州东环花都机场段37.313%35%19%+2.19
穗深城际既有段24.135%32%34%-0.29

未采用的证据及理由：

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票价、席别与实收\n

知乎表中的“公布票价”是各段二等座公布价上限（元/计价公里）。2024年6月起武广、沪昆等线公布价上浮并实行最低5.5折浮动；京沪、合蚌在2026年5月26日再上浮20%（北京南—上海虹桥二等座上限662→794元），但执行价初期不变。\n京沪2025年本线客运收入157.22亿元÷担当客公里306.33亿 = 0.513元/人公里，相对调价前公布价0.55为0.933。其他线路的折扣更深、商务座占比更低，统一套0.933会高估，因此按全国动车组客运收入（约4,600亿元，推算）校准，全网平均实收约 0.395 元/人公里。

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实收随客座率浮动。车票折扣是收益管理的结果：坐得满的线路打折少，坐得空的线路打折多。因此各线实收系数再乘以 1+0.8×(客座率−55%)，上下限为0.75和1.2倍（客座率30%的线路约打0.8倍，80%的约1.2倍），然后整体校准到全国票款。京沪按本线担当306.33亿客公里×0.513元实测、其余跨线客公里按规则计算后合并；京津城际按实测0.46元/人公里×0.87固定，不参与缩放。本版未再逐车抓取12306票价。

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一等座、商务座的单位空间收益。以复兴号为例：二等座每节约90座，一等座约56座，公布价约为二等座的1.6倍，满座时每节收入 56×1.6≈90 与二等座相当；商务座每节当量约20–22座、票价约3.5倍，满座时约为二等座的75–85%，且实际上座更低。所以“按空间单位收益接近”对一等座基本成立，对商务座偏高。本站不按物理座位去折算席别，而是用实测的平均实收（已含席别结构）乘客公里，避免席别溢价重复计算。

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全国对账
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项目模型（大陆线路）全国资料判断
客公里10,992 亿2025年动车组约11,230亿（含非高铁线路动车）约束项
票款4,339 亿元2025年动车组客运收入推算约4,600亿（4,200–4,950）校准项
车辆公里 ÷ 动车组车辆数1,759 公里/辆·日2025年末动车组41,836辆含检修备用，偏高但可行
线路折旧1,139 亿元国铁集团2024年折旧2,074亿（全部资产）加动车组折旧约350亿后占约72%，余约585亿给普速网、机车、货车
运输业务合计盈亏-886 亿元（高铁）国铁集团2025年运输业务 −715亿（收入10,204亿、成本10,919亿，含折旧与财务费用）高铁约92%在合并范围内，货运与普速客运合计约+100亿（校准项：据此求得动车组经济成本约3.9元/车辆公里）
利息1,005 亿元国铁集团2024年财务费用1,639亿约61%
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敏感性

其他参数不变，只改一项时的确定性计算结果（线路口径同排行榜；合计为大陆线路，不含台湾、香港段）：

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情景全成本盈利线路大陆合计年度盈亏
中心估计31 条-886 亿元
全国票款锚 −8%23 条-1,234 亿元
全国票款锚 +8%42 条-534 亿元
客座率整体 −3个百分点左右（logit −0.12）23 条-1,174 亿元
客座率整体 +3个百分点左右40 条-592 亿元
动车组经济成本 +40%（约6元/车辆公里）21 条-1,307 亿元
动车组经济成本 −25%36 条-625 亿元
折旧率 2.0%25 条-1,128 亿元
利率 4.0%25 条-1,109 亿元

头条的全网亏损规模主要由全国票款锚、动车组经济成本（国铁总账校准）与折旧利息口径决定；各线的相对位置对这些共同参数不敏感，对本线客座率与票价敏感。

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验证
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独立审计
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主要不确定性
","params":{"version":"2.1","mcDraws":2000,"params":{"annualPerJul":{"value":0.955,"unit":"全年日均÷2026-07-18周六","type":"derived","source":"全年日均÷7月暑期周六：京沪2018/2024年报列公里÷同期周六快照0.99/1.01（主干线上限）；全国1–8月日均÷暑运日均0.967/0.990，但分子含春运五一、缺9–12月淡季、周六略高于暑运日均（独立审核建议0.93–0.95）。取0.955，区间0.93–0.99。"},"annualPerJan":{"value":1.005,"unit":"全年日均÷2026-01-31周六","type":"derived","source":"0.955÷全网1月/7月快照比0.949≈1.006"},"seats8_A":{"value":555,"unit":"座/列(8节)","type":"derived","source":"CR400AF 576、CR400BF 576、CRH380B/CRH3C 556、CRH380A 494（独立审核更正）；按现役构成加权约555"},"seatsLong_A":{"value":1180,"unit":"座/列(16/17节)","type":"derived","source":"CR400AF-A/BF-A 1193、CR400AF-B 1283、CRH380AL 1061、CRH380BL 1015"},"carsLong_A":{"value":16.3,"unit":"节/列","type":"assumption","source":"16节为主、部分17节"},"seats8_B":{"value":600,"unit":"座/列(8节)","type":"derived","source":"CRH2A 610、CRH380A 556、CR300AF 613、CRH5A 586"},"seatsLong_B":{"value":1200,"unit":"座/列(重联)","type":"derived","source":"两列8节重联"},"carsLong_B":{"value":16,"unit":"节/列","type":"derived","source":"重联"},"seats8_M":{"value":557,"unit":"座/列(8节)","type":"derived","source":"CRH6A 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